2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We can see how the 500mb patterns have changed during this -PDO interval in the 2020s. Now we get very strong Aleutian Ridges and weaker -PNA troughs out West. This goes to the PNA variability that has been experienced since 2019.

So even with such strong -PDO values, we are getting more changes between +PNA and -PNA. We saw this last winter with the strong to record +PNA for a La Niña. This was also the case with the 20-21 La Niña. Same for January 22.

There has also been the tendency for a much stronger Southeast Ridge than was the case from the 50s into 70s. 

While we have also seen some significant -PNA intervals like in December 2021, the long term trend against these fluctuations is for a more positive PNA. This -PDO era has been more defined by the record marine heatwaves from the Western to Central Pacific. And less of a cold pool formation off the West Coast. 

But not as dramatic as the EA index with the record heatwaves in Europe. The rising heights near the Azores could also be contributing to the more +NAO even though we have seen Greenland blocking intervals.This has also been associated with the Southeast Ridge linking up with the Greenland blocks.
 

Chris, that 2022-2023  season was an exception in that it was def. more -PNA that year....it was about as extreme as it gets and it definitely foiled what would have otherwise been a damn good December and March...at least at my latitude. Give me that season again with a bit less -PNA and I would be happy.

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

West-Pacific index looks like this in the Wintertime

It's the reason why the SE ridge has extended north to often link up with Greenland ridging, that and, NAO sea-level pressure over the North Atlantic has often been positive, which enforces a mid-latitude ridge from the US to Europe. 

Taking out all the indexes, which are fluctuation patterns, and what they have produced in the weight of one direction over another, the global warming is actually only about +3F in the Winter for the last 50 years. (Maybe it's more as a year-to-year multiplier recently as the trend is more exponential in recent years).

Where I agree with Chris is I do think that this latest round of global warming has augmented and probably protracted this pattern...I do think there is some level of feedback there.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Where I agree with Chris is I do think that this latest round of global warming has augmented and probably protracted this pattern...I do think there is some level of feedback there.

Siberia has been below average 2017-2025.. and they already average like -40F so yeah. Really surprisingly actually to have any area in the Northern Hemisphere that has been below average for a 9-year period.. but it goes a little bit toward the crappy Winter's in the eastern US. It's not always going to be below average there.. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I agree with you. I actually did a study a few years back, finding that there was fluctuation year-to-year around patterns. I used this in 2022 to predict some things in advance actually. It's fluctuation around a base pattern, and last late Nov-Feb was "anomaly" of +PNA, so I think we have higher chances of fluxing back to -PNA over the same time next Winter, without major drivers like ENSO.. it's purely theoretical, but the method has been relevant for the past few years, for whatever reason. If we go 4,4,4,4 -2 one year, it's likely to go 4,4,4,4 8 over the same time in the following year. 

+NAO/+PNA January, I bet....best shot at blocking being December/ latter Feb and March.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The summers began to warm faster in the Northeast starting in 2010. Since then the Northeast has experienced 12 out of 15 warmer to record warm summers. We are on track this summer to make it 13 out of 16. We haven’t  had a really cool summer in the Northeast since 2009. All the 3 slightly cooler summers were due to the warmer climate normals. We would often get a cooler summer like 2009 after a series of warmer summers. 

The winter warming began to really accelerate with the super El Niño in 15-16. So the Northeast has experienced 9 out of the last 10 winters running warmer than average to record warm. This recent 24-25 winter would have only been considered average in earlier 30 year climate eras. We haven’t had a colder winter in the Northeast by historical averages since 14-15. 

The winter warming across the Northeast has been faster than the summer warming by several degrees. 
 

 

 

Yea, winter is always going to warm faster than summer because there is so much more mosture in the air during the warm season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Last Summer was hot, but before then, it wasn't anything major.. mostly the higher averages were from min's. The Winter has been ridiculously -PNA and a little +WPO going a long way to extend that SE ridge north. Even them out and it's +3F over 50 years, there have been some really cold periods too. I just think there is too much focus on explainable things acting like it's a whole globe warming trend. Some of these fluctuation patterns have been in fluctuation during the Winter.. now 80% of the months of the whole year since 2013 have been above average.. so I'll consider that we realistically have a 20% chance of having a cold Winter month. But it's not some global happening that pollution is causing a SE ridge, and not over Montana. 

Yes and yes.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

+NAO/+PNA January, I bet....best shot at blocking being December/ latter Feb and March.

Feb-March has had ridiculous -PNA for an 8-year period

That's >+100dm for a 2-consecutive month period for 8-consecutive years. Going back through all the maps to 1948, the number 2 greatest anomaly covering 2-months in 8-years didn't even make it to +70dm.. so we've broken that record in the maps by >140%. 

That's one of those things were the trend forward is so strong, I don't even think there is an evening out.. it's like, watch to see if there is a -PNA in Feb-March again next year with no major chance for +PNA without an El Nino or something in that time period. Once the coldest day of the year passes, Jan 27th, there has been a huge tendency for the last 8 years to go -pna afterward. Something to watch this year. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Feb-March has had ridiculous -PNA for an 8-year period

That's >+100dm for a 2-consecutive month period for 8-consecutive years. Going back through all the maps to 1948, the number 2 greatest anomaly covering 2-months in 8-years didn't even make it to +70dm.. so we've broken that record in the maps by 130%. 

That's one of those things were the trend forward is so strong, I don't even think there is an evening out.. it's like, watch to see if there is a -PNA in Feb-March again next year with no major chance for +PNA without an El Nino or something in that time period. Once the coldest day of the year passes, Jan 27th, there has been a huge tendency for the last 8 years to go -pna afterward. 

I don't expect that to change.....goes with the Pacific cold phase tendency. 

-AO/NAO/PNA early and late season, with +AO/NAO/PNA sandwiched in the middle.....+AO/NAO definitely tipping the seasonal mean in that direction, but I think the -PNA portion will also win out in the mean. Just not as extreme as 2022-2023.

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, winter is always going to warm faster than summer because there is so much more mosture in the air during the warm season.

Yeah, we have been fortunate that there haven’t been any droughts of a similar magnitude to the 1960s to early 2000s during this much warmer climate era. But this comes at the cost of more warm season flooding events around our region. Plus much higher dew points even into New England. 

Last week was the highest June temperatures on record from Long Island right up into New England. But the lack of any strong drought helped keep the duration shorter. Still it was my highest temperatures since moving to just east of the KHVN ASOS site a few summers ago.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, bluewave said:

Yeah, we have been fortunate that there haven’t been any droughts of a similar magnitude to the 1960s to early 2000s during this much warmer climate era. But this comes at the cost of more warm season flooding events around our region. Plus much higher dew points even into New England. 

Last week was the strongest June heat on record from Long Island right up into New England. But the lack of any strong drought helped keep the duration shorter. Still it was my highest temperatures since moving just east of the KHVN ASOS site. 

Perhaps the most shocking fact of all is that we have continued to avoid the inevitable Long Island Express that is long overdue-

[Stormchaserchuck1]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

+NAO/+PNA January, I bet....best shot at blocking being December/ latter Feb and March.

Jan 10 - Feb 6, 2025 actually had variations of a -PNA in the H5 .. so maybe that's our window, right in the middle of Winter. In the mid-atlantic, our biggest snowstorms occur with a trough in the Gulf of Alaska, so I would take the opposite of this. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Jan 10 - Feb 6, 2025 actually had variations of a -PNA in the H5 .. so maybe that's our window, right in the middle of Winter. In the mid-atlantic, our biggest snowstorms occur with a trough in the Gulf of Alaska, so I would take the opposite of this. 

I would take the opposite of the last 7 years.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would take the opposite of the last 7 years.

Me too lol. Since returning from California in Jan 2017, the most I've seen in a year is 15", and my average is 25-30". The biggest storm was on Nov 15, 2018 at 5.5". And it didn't snow on the West coast for 5 years, so it's been a while. Not good  

Edit: maybe 17-18 did better than that. I don't remember. 

[snowman19]

This is why its important to be multidimensional and as exhuastive and all-encompassing as possible when doing an outlook...there are no silver bullets. 2011-2012 was also a moderately strong Modoki La Nina that occured during high solar. 
I think if I had to offer advice to anyone doing an outlook, that sentence would be read "be eclectic in your approach as possible and be ever mindful that nothing operates in a vacuum".

11-12 was a prime example of certain folks using the -QBO = big high latitude (AO/NAO) blocking….cold/snowy winter broad brush. I remember many winter outlooks that went cold and snowy for the east that fall based in very large part to the -QBO, only to colossally fail

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

11-12 was a prime example of certain folks using the -QBO = big high latitude (AO/NAO) blocking….cold/snowy winter broad brush. I remember many winter outlooks that went cold and snowy for the east that fall based in very large part to the -QBO, only to colossally fail

This is what you call "random"

Now of course when coupled with certain ENSO phases, it becomes predictive at the cold season Stratosphere.. as high as a 75% chance. But that doesn't make it to the surface as much as is believed, typically. The Northeast is actually above average temps in warm Stratosphere cold seasons as a broad based thing. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Me too lol. Since returning from California in Jan 2017, the most I've seen in a year is 15", and my average is 25-30". The biggest storm was on Nov 15, 2018 at 5.5". And it didn't snow on the West coast for 5 years, so it's been a while. Not good  

Edit: maybe 17-18 did better than that. I don't remember. 

2017-2018 was my last good winter.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Didn't realize the AO was so + in the middle of Winter last year.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Perhaps the most shocking fact of all is that we have continued to avoid the inevitable Long Island Express that is long overdue-

Yeah, impressive 500 mb height rises to the north and east of New England during the hurricane season has been steering all the major hurricanes into the Gulf and Florida since the 1990s. 
 

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The summers began to warm faster in the Northeast starting in 2010. Since then the Northeast has experienced 12 out of 15 warmer to record warm summers. We are on track this summer to make it 13 out of 16. We haven’t  had a really cool summer in the Northeast since 2009. All the 3 slightly cooler summers were due to the warmer climate normals. We would often get a cooler summer like 2009 after a series of warmer summers. 

The winter warming began to really accelerate with the super El Niño in 15-16. So the Northeast has experienced 9 out of the last 10 winters running warmer than average to record warm. This recent 24-25 winter would have only been considered average in earlier 30 year climate eras. We haven’t had a colder winter in the Northeast by historical averages since 14-15. 

The winter warming across the Northeast has been faster than the summer warming by several degrees. 
 

 

 

Do you think the extreme heat we have seen this summer for the first time since 2011 is due to the strong el nino we had 2 years ago Chris?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Last Summer was hot, but before then, it wasn't anything major.. mostly the higher averages were from min's. The Winter has been ridiculously -PNA and a little +WPO going a long way to extend that SE ridge north. Even them out and it's +3F over 50 years, there have been some really cold periods too. I just think there is too much focus on explainable things acting like it's a whole globe warming trend. Some of these fluctuation patterns have been in fluctuation during the Winter.. now 80% of the months of the whole year since 2013 have been above average.. so I'll consider that we realistically have a 20% chance of having a cold Winter month. But it's not some global happening that pollution is causing a SE ridge, and not over Montana. 

Yes this is exactly what I've been saying.  As a matter of fact I'd go further and say this is the first time we have seen this kind of heat since 2013 and in reality since 2011.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, winter is always going to warm faster than summer because there is so much more mosture in the air during the warm season.

yes that moisture has curbed our triple digit heat...until this summer!!!

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, impressive 500 mb height rises to the north and east of New England during the hurricane season has been steering all the major hurricanes into the Gulf and Florida since the 1990s. 
 

 

 

 

Someone needs to do a study of the 50s to find out what was causing all those 100+ degree temperatures, all those extremely long heatwaves and all those east coast TC landfalls and even a few powerful tornadoes thrown into the mix!!!

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we have been fortunate that there haven’t been any droughts of a similar magnitude to the 1960s to early 2000s during this much warmer climate era. But this comes at the cost of more warm season flooding events around our region. Plus much higher dew points even into New England. 

Last week was the highest June temperatures on record from Long Island right up into New England. But the lack of any strong drought helped keep the duration shorter. Still it was my highest temperatures since moving to just east of the KHVN ASOS site a few summers ago.

I miss my dry hot summers.  Last week was good but very shortlived. The more it rains the more harmful bugs we get and the taller the weeds are. More spraying becomes necessary to eliminate both.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

+NAO/+PNA January, I bet....best shot at blocking being December/ latter Feb and March.

a classic bookend winter, Ray.

[snowman19]

Yes this is exactly what I've been saying.  As a matter of fact I'd go further and say this is the first time we have seen this kind of heat since 2013 and in reality since 2011.

The summer of 2011 was absolutely brutal

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The summer of 2011 was absolutely brutal

Almost as brutal as the 11/12 winter for those who like snow and cold.

[mitchnick]

Don't know if anyone noticed or if it's been posted previously, but cyclonicwx.com now offers some decent OISST worldwide SST and SSTA graphs for the last 10 years that make for easy reference with each area broken down separately. 

https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/

Click on "OISST" in the banner near the top.

[brooklynwx99]

wouldn't be surprising if we had another -EPO dominant winter with intervals of blocking. still some -PNA, obviously. likely AN temps in the mean, but we'll probably have some colder intervals with blocking... overall, doesn't seem like too much of a deviation from last winter's vibe, which I would run back and see if the dice can roll a bit better

[CP_WinterStorm]

For those who are smarter than I, does the setup of the PDO make a difference? What I mean by this is, the current event seems to be driven more by the western Pacific anomalies than the eastern Pacific...

June 2025:

June 2011:

Does the fact that this -PDO is being driven largely by the strength of the warm anomalies make any difference compared to -PDOs like 2011 where it's the cold anomalies? Anyone know?

[TheClimateChanger]

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

The summers began to warm faster in the Northeast starting in 2010. Since then the Northeast has experienced 12 out of 15 warmer to record warm summers. We are on track this summer to make it 13 out of 16. We haven’t  had a really cool summer in the Northeast since 2009. All the 3 slightly cooler summers were due to the warmer climate normals. We would often get a cooler summer like 2009 after a series of warmer summers. 

The winter warming began to really accelerate with the super El Niño in 15-16. So the Northeast has experienced 9 out of the last 10 winters running warmer than average to record warm. This recent 24-25 winter would have only been considered average in earlier 30 year climate eras. We haven’t had a colder winter in the Northeast by historical averages since 14-15. 

The winter warming across the Northeast has been faster than the summer warming by several degrees. 
 

 

 

Just a sobering trend. Over the last six decades, January is warming up to 10 or 11F per century in many areas.

Northeast Ohio - 11F/century

Coastal New York, including NYC Metro - 10F/century!