2025-2026 ENSO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that this that the expanding subtropical ridges across the planet from Japan to the Eastern US and Europe as the climate warms are driving these multiple records. Notice how the EA has become so positive over time. So the +NAO could be driven by the expansion of these ridges. Plus the feedback from the record marine heatwaves east of Japan across the Atlantic to the Mediterranean. 

Good post. Very interesting. It looks like a phase started in 2013 with the EA. I have said many times that I started noticing an Atlantic-Pacific correlation in 2013, where cold season -NAO's were coinciding with more -PNA/+EPO and +NAO's were coinciding with more +PNA/-EPO. I theorized that it has something to do with the Summer Arctic ice melt, and us not breaking through 2007-2012 levels relative to the global warming. It's like the NAO is "capped" and the potential energy is spilling into other parts of the globe (just my theory). Also 1998 was a big jump up in the EA and that is exactly when the -PDO phase started. The most linear chart I have ever seen, with less flux, is Germany winter snowfall from 50-60 years ago to present. The line almost fits a perfect -30 degree angle. I wonder if the EA index will ever have a negative phase, it appears to be at highest levels all time in 23-24. Upper latitudes should match mid-latitude warming, but that hasn't happened so much lately. AO and NAO and EPO blocks were still higher in the 50s, 60s, 80s, etc. While we keep seeing record breaking ridging 30-50N. I think the NAO not going to record high levels in its blocks is allowing the SE ridge to occur underneath of it, and ridging in Europe, because the base pattern should favor more extreme upper latitude blocks and it's not occurring, if that makes any sense. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

17 hours ago, roardog said:

Two of those years on that composite are super Nino(23-24 and 82-83) so that probably skews it some. 

It's more about the 91-20 average, and how we are trending compared to it. The first list of years was July 1981-1990. There is -3F on the West coast from that 10-year period. The second list of years was 2021-2024, there is +4F in the same spot.. I'm pointing out that in July there is a +5-6F trend on the west coast compared to 91-20 averages, and that July pattern per current modeling is setting up again, and strong. The 82-83 Strong El Nino is a [minus] in the composite, meaning opposite of it. And 23-24 is [plus], but even in Strong El Nino's, I'm pointing out that the July trend is actually stronger than what a Strong El Nino has produced. It's a point about about the recent global pattern and consistencies from year to year. If July is verifying, it means that recent previous Winter trends are probably more relevant this coming Winter. 

[TheClimateChanger]

On 6/29/2025 at 5:37 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

July has been a big trend month around the 91-20 average. The West coast has been extreme. 

Here is July 81-90 vs 91-20, on the front half of the trend

Now here's 2021-on vs the 91-20 average

That's a +5-6F difference in the West coast ridge in July, the most unanomalous month of the year. 

0z EPS through the first half of July has the same pattern occurring. 

Following Winters around the same base period (91-20) [minus 81-90, plus 21-25] look like this, which is relevant because the same global trend in the July pattern is likely to occur this year

I mean this is just an anthropocene signal, no? Looks like something a climate model would spit out with a cooling hole in July over the heavy agricultural areas due to the unnatural densities of corn and soybeans (and the resulting unnatural levels of evapotranspiration) and irrigation effects, enhanced warming over the arid west with rapid winter warming east of the Rockies.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

24 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I mean this is just an anthropocene signal, no? Looks like something a climate model would spit out with a cooling hole in July over the heavy agricultural areas due to the unnatural densities of corn and soybeans (and the resulting unnatural levels of evapotranspiration) and irrigation effects, enhanced warming over the arid west with rapid winter warming east of the Rockies.

The jet stream has been shifting north in general, and that is how it has been playing out. The differences on the West coast in July between the 1980s and now are extreme, more extreme than any ENSO signal or anything like that. It seem to be a one directional change. Although there were some differences in the July pattern 2016-2020. I'm just highlighting how it's enhancing the trend this year, which could possibly mean the same thing that we've been moving through recently, going forward. 

Phoenix is going to break 2013's high temp record today.. there's always a hope that something like 13-14 can develop, as that was part of the "new cycle"... really hot weather in the Southwest Summer-early Fall does correlate with some Winter -EPO/+PNA pattern.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It's the same stuff for July pattern here.. West coast ridge, south of Aleutian island ridge. 

[so_whats_happening]

Training thunderstorms getting us good at home (Lancaster) second above average month so far but still down about 5" on the year.

@Stormchaserchuck1

[Stormchaserchuck1]

48 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Training thunderstorms getting us good at home (Lancaster) second above average month so far but still down about 5" on the year.

@Stormchaserchuck1

Really a great thunderstorm day! There were big lightning bolts for a long time close by, and I lost power for 3 hours. I was going to comment how earlier this morning it felt like Florida outside.. This thunderstorm season has been one of the better ones in several years.  Everything turned green here in March and April.. I don't see any sign of drought. I realize we were below average for like 10 months in a row, but that has broken fast this Spring, in my opinion. Follows the trend that we have seen since 2002: Every time a developing drought occurs, we follow it with much above average precip in the eastern 1/2 of the US. 

[so_whats_happening]

55 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Really a great thunderstorm day! There were big lightning bolts for a long time close by, and I lost power for 3 hours. I was going to comment how earlier this morning it felt like Florida outside.. This thunderstorm season has been one of the better ones in several years.  Everything turned green here in March and April.. I don't see any sign of drought. I realize we were below average for like 10 months in a row, but that has broken fast this Spring, in my opinion. Follows the trend that we have seen since 2002: Every time a developing drought occurs, we follow it with much above average precip in the eastern 1/2 of the US. 

Just hope we can keep it going.

[mitchnick]

Updated Cansips just out, though dry for the winter, keeps it BN most areas north of the Mason-Dixon line. This is a link starting in November.

Summer is reasonably tolerable over most of the conus too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025070100&fh=4

500mb starting November 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025070100&fh=4

Enso starting November 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025070100&fh=4

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Updated Cansips just out, though dry for the winter, keeps it BN most areas north of the Mason-Dixon line. This is a link starting in November.

Summer is reasonably tolerable over most of the conus too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025070100&fh=4

500mb starting November 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025070100&fh=4

Enso starting November 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025070100&fh=4

I doubt another dry winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 6/29/2025 at 10:00 AM, snowman19 said:

So a coast to coast CONUS torch winter from Dec-Mar. If that was to actually happen I couldn’t imagine the meltdowns

Some of these seasons aren't that warm.....its heavily biased by years like 1982-1983, which really isn't relevent this season. It certainly gives pause for expecting a repeat of last season, but I would hang myself over it.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Some of these seasons aren't that warm.....its heavily biased by years like 1982-1983, which really isn't relevent this season. It certainly gives pause for expecting a repeat of last season, but I would hang myself over it.

It's minus the 1980s analogs. West coast was cold 10 years before the 91-20 average. Then it was drastically warm in the 5 year since then. That's the point.. the progression around the 91-20 base period in July.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's minus the 1980s analogs. West coast was cold 10 years before the 91-20 average. Then it was drastically warm in the 5 year since then. That's the point.. the progression around the 91-20 base period in July.  

Oh, man...that is confusuing. Wayyyy too many dashes.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, man...that is confusuing. Wayyyy too many dashes.

Yeah, and it cuts off half of the years. They could make it more understandable, I guess just be aware of a single dash before a list of years 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well, even those 4 seasons 2021-2022 through last season....the only one that didn't have a fighting chance in the northeast was the 2023-2024 El Nino, which isn't a relevent analog this season. I would take 2021-2022, 2022-2023 with a slightly less extreme RNA, or last season with a bit more precip. Its not the death-knell some are making it out to be, though it certainly slams the breaks on the notion of any imminent, major regime change. That doesn't really tell me anything that I didn't already know because I have already conceeded another solid -PDO winter looking at how low it is right now...a cursory glace back throughout history seals that.

Raindance was pimping 2022-2023 as an early analog...which I would be fine with. I'll take my chances on not having the west coast trough extend to the Baja again...December and March would have been great.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I certainly do not argue with the idea of a +NAO/-EPO this season.....just get some semblance of variability with resepct to the PNA and I will roll with that, though folks in Virginia may feel differently.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On June 28th, my N. Atlantic SST Winter NAO predictor index is running ~+0.85 for that day

Up box cold is +NAO, warm is -NAO. Down box cold is -NAO, warm is +NAO. 

^Actually down is x1.00 and up is x0.65. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

On June 28th, my N. Atlantic SST Winter NAO predictor index is running ~+0.85 for that day

Up box cold is +NAO, warm is -NAO. Down box cold is -NAO, warm is +NAO. 

Yea, no great anticipation with that this season...I know where its headed based on solar. But I think we could steal a round or two of decent blocking early and late season based on QBO data.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, no great anticipation with that this season...I know where its headed based on solar. But I think we could steal a round or two of decent blocking early and late season based on QBO data.

I can't wait until this phase changes.. there is so much record H5 occurring in the mid-latitudes.. rarely over the NAO or EPO or WPO... 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I can't wait until this phase changes.. there is so much record H5 occurring in the mid-latitudes.. rarely over the NAO or EPO or WPO... 

Oh...wait until Bluewave sees this post implying hope for the future  He's going to come in with some tweet from a Japanesse nanna in the hills of nothern Japan bitching about how poor her onion crop is, and tie it to death to NE US winters for all of eternity.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh...wait until Bluewave sees this post implying hope for the future  He's going to come in with some tweet from a Japanesse nanna in the hills of nothern Japan bitching about how poor her onion crop is and tie it to death to NE US winters for all of eternity.

It's pretty cool that they track cherry blossoms back 1000 years to year 1000, and it was actually getting later and later on average for 900 years (3 degree angle) until about 150 years ago. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's pretty cool that they track cherry blossoms back 1000 years to year 1000, and it was actually getting later and later on average for 900 years (3-5 degree angle) until about 150 years ago. 

When in doubt, just lump it in with CC and no one can ever prove you wrong

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We are deep in a +AO cycle now.

Here was the 0z EPS at 360hr

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We are deep in a +AO cycle now.

Here was the 0z EPS at 360hr

Going to be relatively slow sea ice melt.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Winter 7 months after +AO May-July.. not as bad as you would think. 

After +AO June-August