2025-2026 ENSO

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, we're not really crushing this generally cool period with record breaking warm temps at any point. I was going to say the global warming has slowed a little actually over the last few months.  I wouldn't be surprised if there is a -PNA next Winter, but if this tendency that has been present since the Fall last year holds it could be a lot like last Winter just meaning cooler vs the trend (maybe not as dry). 

Yes we are, all major models in agreement for 100 degree heat next week

[snowman19]

Yes we are, all major models in agreement for 100 degree heat next week

We have been in a very rainy, cool pattern since the last week of March. That looks to come to a real abrupt end next week as the pattern does a 180

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We have been in a very rainy, cool pattern since the last week of March. That looks to come to a real abrupt end next week as the pattern does a 180

Finally!  It's about time!  Would 1980 be a good analog for what's about to happen? A rainy and cool first three weeks of June (record cool lows on Tony's daily records posts have been from 1980 lately) and an abrupt shift to hot and steamy from June 20th to September 20th.  Although the epicenter of the big heat was St Louis that year, NYC had their hottest ever 62 day couplet (July-August) with both months averaging 80 or higher and August 1980 was our hottest August on record!

 

[snowman19]

Finally!  It's about time!  Would 1980 be a good analog for what's about to happen? A rainy and cool first three weeks of June (record cool lows on Tony's daily records posts have been from 1980 lately) and an abrupt shift to hot and steamy from June 20th to September 20th.  Although the epicenter of the big heat was St Louis that year, NYC had their hottest ever 62 day couplet (July-August) with both months averaging 80 or higher and August 1980 was our hottest August on record!
 

The summer of 1980 was an epic furnace, start to finish. Let’s hope not….

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We have been in a very rainy, cool pattern since the last week of March. That looks to come to a real abrupt end next week as the pattern does a 180

That's an exaggeration. Maybe since mid-May, but March until up to mid-May (outside of the Nor'easter on 4/11-12) was one of the warmer times of the year so far. We had 80+ the last 3 days of March. That stuff does not happen in a cool pattern! If we've been in a cool pattern since the last week of March, then 2025 would be on track to being the coldest year in a very long time, since the winter (January and February) wasn't that warm to begin with.

[snowman19]

That's an exaggeration. Maybe since mid-May, but March until up to mid-May (outside of the Nor'easter on 4/11-12) was one of the warmer times of the year so far. We had 80+ the last 3 days of March. That stuff does not happen in a cool pattern! If we've been in a cool pattern since the last week of March, then 2025 would be on track to being the coldest year in a very long time, since the winter (January and February) wasn't that warm to begin with.

K

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

That's an exaggeration. Maybe since mid-May, but March until up to mid-May (outside of the Nor'easter on 4/11-12) was one of the warmer times of the year so far. We had 80+ the last 3 days of March. That stuff does not happen in a cool pattern! If we've been in a cool pattern since the last week of March, then 2025 would be on track to being the coldest year in a very long time, since the winter (January and February) wasn't that warm to begin with.

April was extremely cool and rainy and please don't give me the bogus average temp *stat*

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

K

He forgot about our cool and rainy April lol

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

That's an exaggeration. Maybe since mid-May, but March until up to mid-May (outside of the Nor'easter on 4/11-12) was one of the warmer times of the year so far. We had 80+ the last 3 days of March. That stuff does not happen in a cool pattern! If we've been in a cool pattern since the last week of March, then 2025 would be on track to being the coldest year in a very long time, since the winter (January and February) wasn't that warm to begin with.

only one 80 degree in March (the last day of the month and only for the first half of that day) and cool and rainy for April (yuck).

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Let's not re-write the weather. Yeah, the first half of April was a bit cool and rainy (but only slightly to the average):

2025-04-01	62	44	53.0	4.0	12	0	0.16	0.0	0
2025-04-02	57	38	47.5	-1.9	17	0	0.02	0.0	0
2025-04-03	76	48	62.0	12.2	3	0	0.04	0.0	0
2025-04-04	71	60	65.5	15.4	0	1	0.88	T	0
2025-04-05	62	49	55.5	5.0	9	0	0.02	0.0	0
2025-04-06	55	48	51.5	0.6	13	0	0.02	0.0	0
2025-04-07	51	41	46.0	-5.3	19	0	0.28	0.0	0
2025-04-08	48	38	43.0	-8.7	22	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-09	50	33	41.5	-10.6	23	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-10	54	42	48.0	-4.5	17	0	T	0.0	0
2025-04-11	48	42	45.0	-7.9	20	0	1.24	0.0	0
2025-04-12	45	38	41.5	-11.8	23	0	0.14	0.0	0

But as you can see, after the 12th, it turns very hot and dry (only 0.03 inches of rain after the Nor'easter):

2025-04-13	62	42	52.0	-1.6	13	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-14	70	44	57.0	3.0	8	0	T	0.0	0
2025-04-15	69	48	58.5	4.1	6	0	T	0.0	0
2025-04-16	57	44	50.5	-4.3	14	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-17	63	37	50.0	-5.2	15	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-18	72	42	57.0	1.5	8	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-19	80	63	71.5	15.6	0	7	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-20	73	51	62.0	5.7	3	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-21	66	50	58.0	1.4	7	0	T	0.0	0
2025-04-22	80	53	66.5	9.5	0	2	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-23	77	54	65.5	8.2	0	1	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-24	79	50	64.5	6.8	0	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-25	79	51	65.0	7.0	0	0	T	0.0	0
2025-04-26	75	53	64.0	5.6	1	0	0.03	0.0	0
2025-04-27	72	50	61.0	2.3	4	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-28	75	47	61.0	2.0	4	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-29	83	50	66.5	7.1	0	2	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-30	80	57	68.5	8.8	0	4	T	0.0	0

 

The cold pattern, outside of a few hiccups, ended just after the 2/20 snow event. From about the last week of February until mid-May was mostly warm. Only around mid-May did we turn cold.

2025-05-01	81	54	67.5	7.5	0	3	0.00	0.0	0
2025-05-02	86	59	72.5	12.2	0	8	0.00	0.0	0
2025-05-03	85	64	74.5	13.9	0	10	0.04	0.0	0
2025-05-04	73	63	68.0	7.1	0	3	0.12	0.0	0
2025-05-05	73	61	67.0	5.8	0	2	T	0.0	0
2025-05-06	81	61	71.0	9.5	0	6	0.03	0.0	0
2025-05-07	75	60	67.5	5.7	0	3	T	0.0	0
2025-05-08	81	59	70.0	7.9	0	5	T	0.0	0
2025-05-09	64	51	57.5	-4.8	7	0	0.18	0.0	0
2025-05-10	74	49	61.5	-1.1	3	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-05-11	82	55	68.5	5.6	0	4	0.00	0.0	0
2025-05-12	83	55	69.0	5.8	0	4	0.00	0.0	0
2025-05-13	71	62	66.5	3.1	0	2	0.28	0.0	0
2025-05-14	66	59	62.5	-1.2	2	0	1.30	0.0	0
2025-05-15	77	63	70.0	6.0	0	5	0.03	0.0	0
2025-05-16	77	60	68.5	4.2	0	4	1.50	0.0	0
2025-05-17	86	62	74.0	9.4	0	9	T	0.0	0
2025-05-18	77	64	70.5	5.7	0	6	0.00	0.0	0

Pretty clearly you can see the pattern change from warm to cold:

2025-05-19	71	56	63.5	-1.6	1	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-05-20	69	50	59.5	-5.9	5	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-05-21	57	52	54.5	-11.2	10	0	0.45	0.0	0
2025-05-22	56	51	53.5	-12.5	11	0	0.56	0.0	0
2025-05-23	69	51	60.0	-6.3	5	0	T	0.0	0
2025-05-24	68	50	59.0	-7.5	6	0	T	0.0	0
2025-05-25	71	52	61.5	-5.3	3	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-05-26	75	53	64.0	-3.1	1	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-05-27	74	54	64.0	-3.4	1	0	0.01	0.0	0
2025-05-28	59	53	56.0	-11.7	9	0	0.77	0.0	0
2025-05-29	74	57	65.5	-2.6	0	1	0.01	0.0	0
2025-05-30	79	63	71.0	2.6	0	6	0.88	0.0	0
2025-05-31	75	55	65.0	-3.7	0	0	0.06	0.0	0

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes we are, all major models in agreement for 100 degree heat next week

I don't see anything that says 100 degrees. I see 1 day in the 90s, but maybe we'll get a few in the 90s. 

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Let's not re-write the weather. Yeah, the first half of April was a bit cool and rainy (but only slightly to the average):

2025-04-01	62	44	53.0	4.0	12	0	0.16	0.0	0
2025-04-02	57	38	47.5	-1.9	17	0	0.02	0.0	0
2025-04-03	76	48	62.0	12.2	3	0	0.04	0.0	0
2025-04-04	71	60	65.5	15.4	0	1	0.88	T	0
2025-04-05	62	49	55.5	5.0	9	0	0.02	0.0	0
2025-04-06	55	48	51.5	0.6	13	0	0.02	0.0	0
2025-04-07	51	41	46.0	-5.3	19	0	0.28	0.0	0
2025-04-08	48	38	43.0	-8.7	22	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-09	50	33	41.5	-10.6	23	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-10	54	42	48.0	-4.5	17	0	T	0.0	0
2025-04-11	48	42	45.0	-7.9	20	0	1.24	0.0	0
2025-04-12	45	38	41.5	-11.8	23	0	0.14	0.0	0

But as you can see, after the 12th, it turns very hot and dry (only 0.03 inches of rain after the Nor'easter):

2025-04-13	62	42	52.0	-1.6	13	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-14	70	44	57.0	3.0	8	0	T	0.0	0
2025-04-15	69	48	58.5	4.1	6	0	T	0.0	0
2025-04-16	57	44	50.5	-4.3	14	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-17	63	37	50.0	-5.2	15	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-18	72	42	57.0	1.5	8	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-19	80	63	71.5	15.6	0	7	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-20	73	51	62.0	5.7	3	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-21	66	50	58.0	1.4	7	0	T	0.0	0
2025-04-22	80	53	66.5	9.5	0	2	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-23	77	54	65.5	8.2	0	1	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-24	79	50	64.5	6.8	0	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-25	79	51	65.0	7.0	0	0	T	0.0	0
2025-04-26	75	53	64.0	5.6	1	0	0.03	0.0	0
2025-04-27	72	50	61.0	2.3	4	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-28	75	47	61.0	2.0	4	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-29	83	50	66.5	7.1	0	2	0.00	0.0	0
2025-04-30	80	57	68.5	8.8	0	4	T	0.0	0

 

The cold pattern, outside of a few hiccups, ended just after the 2/20 snow event. From about the last week of February until mid-May was mostly warm. Only around mid-May did we turn cold.

2025-05-01	81	54	67.5	7.5	0	3	0.00	0.0	0
2025-05-02	86	59	72.5	12.2	0	8	0.00	0.0	0
2025-05-03	85	64	74.5	13.9	0	10	0.04	0.0	0
2025-05-04	73	63	68.0	7.1	0	3	0.12	0.0	0
2025-05-05	73	61	67.0	5.8	0	2	T	0.0	0
2025-05-06	81	61	71.0	9.5	0	6	0.03	0.0	0
2025-05-07	75	60	67.5	5.7	0	3	T	0.0	0
2025-05-08	81	59	70.0	7.9	0	5	T	0.0	0
2025-05-09	64	51	57.5	-4.8	7	0	0.18	0.0	0
2025-05-10	74	49	61.5	-1.1	3	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-05-11	82	55	68.5	5.6	0	4	0.00	0.0	0
2025-05-12	83	55	69.0	5.8	0	4	0.00	0.0	0
2025-05-13	71	62	66.5	3.1	0	2	0.28	0.0	0
2025-05-14	66	59	62.5	-1.2	2	0	1.30	0.0	0
2025-05-15	77	63	70.0	6.0	0	5	0.03	0.0	0
2025-05-16	77	60	68.5	4.2	0	4	1.50	0.0	0
2025-05-17	86	62	74.0	9.4	0	9	T	0.0	0
2025-05-18	77	64	70.5	5.7	0	6	0.00	0.0	0

Pretty clearly you can see the pattern change from warm to cold:

2025-05-19	71	56	63.5	-1.6	1	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-05-20	69	50	59.5	-5.9	5	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-05-21	57	52	54.5	-11.2	10	0	0.45	0.0	0
2025-05-22	56	51	53.5	-12.5	11	0	0.56	0.0	0
2025-05-23	69	51	60.0	-6.3	5	0	T	0.0	0
2025-05-24	68	50	59.0	-7.5	6	0	T	0.0	0
2025-05-25	71	52	61.5	-5.3	3	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-05-26	75	53	64.0	-3.1	1	0	0.00	0.0	0
2025-05-27	74	54	64.0	-3.4	1	0	0.01	0.0	0
2025-05-28	59	53	56.0	-11.7	9	0	0.77	0.0	0
2025-05-29	74	57	65.5	-2.6	0	1	0.01	0.0	0
2025-05-30	79	63	71.0	2.6	0	6	0.88	0.0	0
2025-05-31	75	55	65.0	-3.7	0	0	0.06	0.0	0

to be fair 60s and 70s are not hot lol, 80+ I'd agree with you.

 

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't see anything that says 100 degrees. I see 1 day in the 90s, but maybe we'll get a few in the 90s. 

Yea there may be a random spot or two that get to 100 at least being shown right now but looks to be potentially our first official heat wave of the season, still a week+ out though so who knows.

I will take this lack of heat when I can get it have not had to turn on the AC yet as we have been able to cool down at night properly.

May was our first month above average rainfall wise around here in awhile the last time it happened was August of last year and the only reason was because of Debby had that not happened we probably would have gone almost 12+ months below average. 

 

[so_whats_happening]

On 6/12/2025 at 6:56 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, I agree with you.

I was just being an ass, but truth be told, tell me that this......

isn't this in longer and more detailed verbiage....

 

Sure just feel he likes to make sure his ducks are in order. No harm no foul.

The WPAC is still warm but not excessively warm as it was so chipping away at it slowly is the name of the game. I would be interested to see if the WPAC starts to fire off any tropical systems coming up here with what could be a minor WWB coming up like we saw earlier this month still no typhoon but at least things are trying to get going.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

And while we get ridging, these models are showing Summertime snow near Yellowstone!

I haven't turned on my AC yet either

[Stormchaserchuck1]

That is good agreement for an extended 5940dm ridge though.. in a continuous +AO pattern

[Spartman]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We have been in a very rainy, cool pattern since the last week of March. That looks to come to a real abrupt end next week as the pattern does a 180

Had a streak of wet months since February here, so this month looks to continue the stretch. The last dry month was back in January.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Really nice cold 500mb +NAO Days 8-15 on the 18z GEFS. This is a pattern that also developed last Spring/Summer after the active solar flares. 

[snowman19]

I know there’s a few forecasts out there calling for a hyperactive/high ACE Atlantic season (namely JB…surprise, surprise), but this should lend some big pause:

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I think it's pretty apparent that we're going to have a very quiet hurricane season in the Atlantic. Unlike last year, the Pacific is very active, already on their 4th named storm. As they say, when the Pacific is active, more than likely the Atlantic is quiet. This year is going to look more like 2013/2014 than 2010/2011/2012.

[snowman19]

I think it's pretty apparent that we're going to have a very quiet hurricane season in the Atlantic. Unlike last year, the Pacific is very active, already on their 4th named storm. As they say, when the Pacific is active, more than likely the Atlantic is quiet. This year is going to look more like 2013/2014 than 2010/2011/2012.

2013 was not very quiet and below average, it was exactly average. There were 14 named storms and 15 tropical depressions. 14 named storms is average

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I know there’s a few forecasts out there calling for a hyperactive/high ACE Atlantic season (namely JB…surprise, surprise), but this should lend some big pause:
 

 

 

 

 

Were are the hyper active tropical forecasts?? Col State and the NHC were a hair above average...

[bluewave]

Very strong La Niña spring pattern as this was the 2nd warmest spring since 1895 behind the 2011-2012 La Niña for the CONUS.
 

Contiguous U.S. Average Temperature

March-May

March-May 2012 56.17°F 131

March-May 2025 54.09°F 130

March-May 1910 54.07°F 129

March-May 2004 53.98°F 128

March-May 2000 53.90°F 127

March-May 1934 53.73°F 126

March-May 2016 53.66°F 125

March-May 2024 53.63°F 124

March-May 2007 53.50°F 123

March-May 2017 53.49°F 122

[snowman19]

Were are the hyper active tropical forecasts?? Col State and the NHC were a hair above average...

JB is going for a high ACE Atlantic season with above average storms as he normally does. Wants an excuse to predict a -NAO winter

[PhiEaglesfan712]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

2013 was not very quiet and below average, it was exactly average. There were 14 named storms and 15 tropical depressions. 14 named storms is average

It was only average in number of named storms. If you take a deeper look, 2013 finished with a Top 10 lowest ACE season, with only 2 hurricanes, and no major ones. (Even 2014 didn't go that low in those respects.)

2013 put up some numbers that seem unfathomable in this 21st century climate, especially coming off 3 very active seasons. It's a well-below average season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

JB is going for a high ACE Atlantic season with above average storms as he normally does. Wants an excuse to predict a -NAO winter

Oh, mercy...I don't even count him as a reputable source.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

know there’s a few forecasts out there calling for a hyperactive/high ACE

I come at it from a different point of view. ACE is only relevant if storms are making landfall. We can remember 2010 with the very high ACE and the dominant OTS storm tracks. 1992 was a very low ACE season but we had Andrew. But the most significant seasons feature high ACE and landfalls.

So sometimes we get caught up in seasonal forecasts of overall ACE. But my focus is landfalling storms. That being said, we have been in a record landfalling hurricane pattern in the Gulf since 2017. The Gulf SSTs are currently the 2nd warmest on record for this time of year. So I will consider this a big season if the Gulf sees another major hurricane landfall by the end of the season no matter what the ACE finishes at. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

No matter how cool and wet it seems, in this day and age its always going to end up one of the warmest (insert timeframe) on record. Even if the days aren't featuring warm maxes, either the night won't radiate and/or some other area of the globe will be obersving record all-time warmth.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I come at it from a different point of view. ACE is only relevant if storms are making landfall. We can remember 2010 with the very high ACE and the dominant OTS storm tracks. 1992 was a very low ACE season but we had Andrew. But the most significant seasons feature high ACE and landfalls.

So sometimes we get caught up in seasonal forecasts of overall ACE. But my focus is landfalling storms. That being said, we have been in a record landfalling hurricane pattern in the Gulf since 2017. The Gulf SSTs are currently the 2nd warmest on record for this time of year. So I will consider this a big season if the Gulf sees another major hurricane landfall by the end of the season no matter what the ACE finishes at. 
 

 

Yea, ACE is more predictable.....obviously the most important factor is land impact.

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

JB is going for a high ACE Atlantic season with above average storms as he normally does. Wants an excuse to predict a -NAO winter

JB is actually calling for a not as active season as last year with ACE of 120-150, whose midpoint of 135 is only slightly above the ~122 avg of 1991-2020 along with only slightly above avg 7-9 H and near avg 2-3 MH:

 

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Forecast

Named Storms: 15-19
Total Hurricanes: 7-9
Major Hurricanes: 2-3
ACE Index: 120-150