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2025-2026 ENSO


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10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, we're not really crushing this generally cool period with record breaking warm temps at any point. I was going to say the global warming has slowed a little actually over the last few months.  I wouldn't be surprised if there is a -PNA next Winter, but if this tendency that has been present since the Fall last year holds it could be a lot like last Winter just meaning cooler vs the trend (maybe not as dry). 

Yes we are, all major models in agreement for 100 degree heat next week

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


We have been in a very rainy, cool pattern since the last week of March. That looks to come to a real abrupt end next week as the pattern does a 180

Finally!  It's about time!  Would 1980 be a good analog for what's about to happen? A rainy and cool first three weeks of June (record cool lows on Tony's daily records posts have been from 1980 lately) and an abrupt shift to hot and steamy from June 20th to September 20th.  Although the epicenter of the big heat was St Louis that year, NYC had their hottest ever 62 day couplet (July-August) with both months averaging 80 or higher and August 1980 was our hottest August on record!

 

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Finally!  It's about time!  Would 1980 be a good analog for what's about to happen? A rainy and cool first three weeks of June (record cool lows on Tony's daily records posts have been from 1980 lately) and an abrupt shift to hot and steamy from June 20th to September 20th.  Although the epicenter of the big heat was St Louis that year, NYC had their hottest ever 62 day couplet (July-August) with both months averaging 80 or higher and August 1980 was our hottest August on record!
 

The summer of 1980 was an epic furnace, start to finish. Let’s hope not….
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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:


We have been in a very rainy, cool pattern since the last week of March. That looks to come to a real abrupt end next week as the pattern does a 180

That's an exaggeration. Maybe since mid-May, but March until up to mid-May (outside of the Nor'easter on 4/11-12) was one of the warmer times of the year so far. We had 80+ the last 3 days of March. That stuff does not happen in a cool pattern! If we've been in a cool pattern since the last week of March, then 2025 would be on track to being the coldest year in a very long time, since the winter (January and February) wasn't that warm to begin with.

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That's an exaggeration. Maybe since mid-May, but March until up to mid-May (outside of the Nor'easter on 4/11-12) was one of the warmer times of the year so far. We had 80+ the last 3 days of March. That stuff does not happen in a cool pattern! If we've been in a cool pattern since the last week of March, then 2025 would be on track to being the coldest year in a very long time, since the winter (January and February) wasn't that warm to begin with.

K
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2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

That's an exaggeration. Maybe since mid-May, but March until up to mid-May (outside of the Nor'easter on 4/11-12) was one of the warmer times of the year so far. We had 80+ the last 3 days of March. That stuff does not happen in a cool pattern! If we've been in a cool pattern since the last week of March, then 2025 would be on track to being the coldest year in a very long time, since the winter (January and February) wasn't that warm to begin with.

April was extremely cool and rainy and please don't give me the bogus average temp *stat*

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2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

That's an exaggeration. Maybe since mid-May, but March until up to mid-May (outside of the Nor'easter on 4/11-12) was one of the warmer times of the year so far. We had 80+ the last 3 days of March. That stuff does not happen in a cool pattern! If we've been in a cool pattern since the last week of March, then 2025 would be on track to being the coldest year in a very long time, since the winter (January and February) wasn't that warm to begin with.

only one 80 degree in March (the last day of the month and only for the first half of that day) and cool and rainy for April (yuck).

 

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Let's not re-write the weather. Yeah, the first half of April was a bit cool and rainy (but only slightly to the average):

2025-04-01 62 44 53.0 4.0 12 0 0.16 0.0 0
2025-04-02 57 38 47.5 -1.9 17 0 0.02 0.0 0
2025-04-03 76 48 62.0 12.2 3 0 0.04 0.0 0
2025-04-04 71 60 65.5 15.4 0 1 0.88 T 0
2025-04-05 62 49 55.5 5.0 9 0 0.02 0.0 0
2025-04-06 55 48 51.5 0.6 13 0 0.02 0.0 0
2025-04-07 51 41 46.0 -5.3 19 0 0.28 0.0 0
2025-04-08 48 38 43.0 -8.7 22 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-09 50 33 41.5 -10.6 23 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-10 54 42 48.0 -4.5 17 0 T 0.0 0
2025-04-11 48 42 45.0 -7.9 20 0 1.24 0.0 0
2025-04-12 45 38 41.5 -11.8 23 0 0.14 0.0 0

But as you can see, after the 12th, it turns very hot and dry (only 0.03 inches of rain after the Nor'easter):

2025-04-13 62 42 52.0 -1.6 13 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-14 70 44 57.0 3.0 8 0 T 0.0 0
2025-04-15 69 48 58.5 4.1 6 0 T 0.0 0
2025-04-16 57 44 50.5 -4.3 14 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-17 63 37 50.0 -5.2 15 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-18 72 42 57.0 1.5 8 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-19 80 63 71.5 15.6 0 7 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-20 73 51 62.0 5.7 3 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-21 66 50 58.0 1.4 7 0 T 0.0 0
2025-04-22 80 53 66.5 9.5 0 2 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-23 77 54 65.5 8.2 0 1 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-24 79 50 64.5 6.8 0 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-25 79 51 65.0 7.0 0 0 T 0.0 0
2025-04-26 75 53 64.0 5.6 1 0 0.03 0.0 0
2025-04-27 72 50 61.0 2.3 4 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-28 75 47 61.0 2.0 4 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-29 83 50 66.5 7.1 0 2 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-30 80 57 68.5 8.8 0 4 T 0.0 0

 

The cold pattern, outside of a few hiccups, ended just after the 2/20 snow event. From about the last week of February until mid-May was mostly warm. Only around mid-May did we turn cold.

2025-05-01 81 54 67.5 7.5 0 3 0.00 0.0 0
2025-05-02 86 59 72.5 12.2 0 8 0.00 0.0 0
2025-05-03 85 64 74.5 13.9 0 10 0.04 0.0 0
2025-05-04 73 63 68.0 7.1 0 3 0.12 0.0 0
2025-05-05 73 61 67.0 5.8 0 2 T 0.0 0
2025-05-06 81 61 71.0 9.5 0 6 0.03 0.0 0
2025-05-07 75 60 67.5 5.7 0 3 T 0.0 0
2025-05-08 81 59 70.0 7.9 0 5 T 0.0 0
2025-05-09 64 51 57.5 -4.8 7 0 0.18 0.0 0
2025-05-10 74 49 61.5 -1.1 3 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-05-11 82 55 68.5 5.6 0 4 0.00 0.0 0
2025-05-12 83 55 69.0 5.8 0 4 0.00 0.0 0
2025-05-13 71 62 66.5 3.1 0 2 0.28 0.0 0
2025-05-14 66 59 62.5 -1.2 2 0 1.30 0.0 0
2025-05-15 77 63 70.0 6.0 0 5 0.03 0.0 0
2025-05-16 77 60 68.5 4.2 0 4 1.50 0.0 0
2025-05-17 86 62 74.0 9.4 0 9 T 0.0 0
2025-05-18 77 64 70.5 5.7 0 6 0.00 0.0 0

Pretty clearly you can see the pattern change from warm to cold:

2025-05-19 71 56 63.5 -1.6 1 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-05-20 69 50 59.5 -5.9 5 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-05-21 57 52 54.5 -11.2 10 0 0.45 0.0 0
2025-05-22 56 51 53.5 -12.5 11 0 0.56 0.0 0
2025-05-23 69 51 60.0 -6.3 5 0 T 0.0 0
2025-05-24 68 50 59.0 -7.5 6 0 T 0.0 0
2025-05-25 71 52 61.5 -5.3 3 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-05-26 75 53 64.0 -3.1 1 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-05-27 74 54 64.0 -3.4 1 0 0.01 0.0 0
2025-05-28 59 53 56.0 -11.7 9 0 0.77 0.0 0
2025-05-29 74 57 65.5 -2.6 0 1 0.01 0.0 0
2025-05-30 79 63 71.0 2.6 0 6 0.88 0.0 0
2025-05-31 75 55 65.0 -3.7 0 0 0.06 0.0 0
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27 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Let's not re-write the weather. Yeah, the first half of April was a bit cool and rainy (but only slightly to the average):

2025-04-01 62 44 53.0 4.0 12 0 0.16 0.0 0
2025-04-02 57 38 47.5 -1.9 17 0 0.02 0.0 0
2025-04-03 76 48 62.0 12.2 3 0 0.04 0.0 0
2025-04-04 71 60 65.5 15.4 0 1 0.88 T 0
2025-04-05 62 49 55.5 5.0 9 0 0.02 0.0 0
2025-04-06 55 48 51.5 0.6 13 0 0.02 0.0 0
2025-04-07 51 41 46.0 -5.3 19 0 0.28 0.0 0
2025-04-08 48 38 43.0 -8.7 22 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-09 50 33 41.5 -10.6 23 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-10 54 42 48.0 -4.5 17 0 T 0.0 0
2025-04-11 48 42 45.0 -7.9 20 0 1.24 0.0 0
2025-04-12 45 38 41.5 -11.8 23 0 0.14 0.0 0

But as you can see, after the 12th, it turns very hot and dry (only 0.03 inches of rain after the Nor'easter):

2025-04-13 62 42 52.0 -1.6 13 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-14 70 44 57.0 3.0 8 0 T 0.0 0
2025-04-15 69 48 58.5 4.1 6 0 T 0.0 0
2025-04-16 57 44 50.5 -4.3 14 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-17 63 37 50.0 -5.2 15 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-18 72 42 57.0 1.5 8 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-19 80 63 71.5 15.6 0 7 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-20 73 51 62.0 5.7 3 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-21 66 50 58.0 1.4 7 0 T 0.0 0
2025-04-22 80 53 66.5 9.5 0 2 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-23 77 54 65.5 8.2 0 1 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-24 79 50 64.5 6.8 0 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-25 79 51 65.0 7.0 0 0 T 0.0 0
2025-04-26 75 53 64.0 5.6 1 0 0.03 0.0 0
2025-04-27 72 50 61.0 2.3 4 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-28 75 47 61.0 2.0 4 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-29 83 50 66.5 7.1 0 2 0.00 0.0 0
2025-04-30 80 57 68.5 8.8 0 4 T 0.0 0

 

The cold pattern, outside of a few hiccups, ended just after the 2/20 snow event. From about the last week of February until mid-May was mostly warm. Only around mid-May did we turn cold.

2025-05-01 81 54 67.5 7.5 0 3 0.00 0.0 0
2025-05-02 86 59 72.5 12.2 0 8 0.00 0.0 0
2025-05-03 85 64 74.5 13.9 0 10 0.04 0.0 0
2025-05-04 73 63 68.0 7.1 0 3 0.12 0.0 0
2025-05-05 73 61 67.0 5.8 0 2 T 0.0 0
2025-05-06 81 61 71.0 9.5 0 6 0.03 0.0 0
2025-05-07 75 60 67.5 5.7 0 3 T 0.0 0
2025-05-08 81 59 70.0 7.9 0 5 T 0.0 0
2025-05-09 64 51 57.5 -4.8 7 0 0.18 0.0 0
2025-05-10 74 49 61.5 -1.1 3 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-05-11 82 55 68.5 5.6 0 4 0.00 0.0 0
2025-05-12 83 55 69.0 5.8 0 4 0.00 0.0 0
2025-05-13 71 62 66.5 3.1 0 2 0.28 0.0 0
2025-05-14 66 59 62.5 -1.2 2 0 1.30 0.0 0
2025-05-15 77 63 70.0 6.0 0 5 0.03 0.0 0
2025-05-16 77 60 68.5 4.2 0 4 1.50 0.0 0
2025-05-17 86 62 74.0 9.4 0 9 T 0.0 0
2025-05-18 77 64 70.5 5.7 0 6 0.00 0.0 0

Pretty clearly you can see the pattern change from warm to cold:

2025-05-19 71 56 63.5 -1.6 1 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-05-20 69 50 59.5 -5.9 5 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-05-21 57 52 54.5 -11.2 10 0 0.45 0.0 0
2025-05-22 56 51 53.5 -12.5 11 0 0.56 0.0 0
2025-05-23 69 51 60.0 -6.3 5 0 T 0.0 0
2025-05-24 68 50 59.0 -7.5 6 0 T 0.0 0
2025-05-25 71 52 61.5 -5.3 3 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-05-26 75 53 64.0 -3.1 1 0 0.00 0.0 0
2025-05-27 74 54 64.0 -3.4 1 0 0.01 0.0 0
2025-05-28 59 53 56.0 -11.7 9 0 0.77 0.0 0
2025-05-29 74 57 65.5 -2.6 0 1 0.01 0.0 0
2025-05-30 79 63 71.0 2.6 0 6 0.88 0.0 0
2025-05-31 75 55 65.0 -3.7 0 0 0.06 0.0 0

to be fair 60s and 70s are not hot lol, 80+ I'd agree with you.

 

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1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't see anything that says 100 degrees. I see 1 day in the 90s, but maybe we'll get a few in the 90s. 

Yea there may be a random spot or two that get to 100 at least being shown right now but looks to be potentially our first official heat wave of the season, still a week+ out though so who knows.

I will take this lack of heat when I can get it have not had to turn on the AC yet as we have been able to cool down at night properly.

May was our first month above average rainfall wise around here in awhile the last time it happened was August of last year and the only reason was because of Debby had that not happened we probably would have gone almost 12+ months below average. 

 

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On 6/12/2025 at 6:56 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, I agree with you.

I was just being an ass, but truth be told, tell me that this......

isn't this in longer and more detailed verbiage....

 

Sure just feel he likes to make sure his ducks are in order. No harm no foul.

The WPAC is still warm but not excessively warm as it was so chipping away at it slowly is the name of the game. I would be interested to see if the WPAC starts to fire off any tropical systems coming up here with what could be a minor WWB coming up like we saw earlier this month still no typhoon but at least things are trying to get going.

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9 hours ago, snowman19 said:


We have been in a very rainy, cool pattern since the last week of March. That looks to come to a real abrupt end next week as the pattern does a 180

Had a streak of wet months since February here, so this month looks to continue the stretch. The last dry month was back in January.

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