2025-2026 ENSO

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/death-diamond-how-analytics-destroying-baseball-from-inside-kelly-qfepe

Exit Velocity? Great—it went 112 MPH off the bat. But was it a hit or a loud out? That’s the part they skip.

Launch Angle? That’s cute. Let’s just ignore the fact that launch angle obsession has turned 180 hitters into all-or-nothing flyball machines—producing three true outcomes: walk, strikeout, or home run. Welcome to baseball’s version of roulette.

Spin Rate? That’s the holy grail now, right? So pitchers blow out elbows trying to increase RPMs instead of learning to pitch. What happened to command? What happened to working backwards? Analytics made pitchability a dirty word.

 Metrics Replacing Men

They sold us wRC+, xFIP, and CSW%—metrics that tell us what should have happened instead of what did. That’s not baseball. That’s fantasy. Real players fail and fight through it. Real scouts see beyond the stat line.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Exit Velocity? Great—it went 112 MPH off the bat. But was it a hit or a loud out? That’s the part they skip.

Launch Angle? That’s cute. Let’s just ignore the fact that launch angle obsession has turned 180 hitters into all-or-nothing flyball machines—producing three true outcomes: walk, strikeout, or home run. Welcome to baseball’s version of roulette.

Spin Rate? That’s the holy grail now, right? So pitchers blow out elbows trying to increase RPMs instead of learning to pitch. What happened to command? What happened to working backwards? Analytics made pitchability a dirty word.

 Metrics Replacing Men

They sold us wRC+, xFIP, and CSW%—metrics that tell us what should have happened instead of what did. That’s not baseball. That’s fantasy. Real players fail and fight through it. Real scouts see beyond the stat line.

 

Well, there is always going to be some level of BABIP luck involved...you can't eliminate that. However, harder hit balls of a higher BABIP....ie greater chance of being a hit.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, there is always going to be some level of BABIP luck involved...you can't eliminate that. However, harder hit balls of a higher BABIP....ie greater chance of being a hit.

Yes, I'd like to return to the era of the Mattinglies and Boggs, when we had the top hitters hitting over .350 and not striking out much.

That actually might be happening now with Judge and Freeman.

[TheClimateChanger]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, I'd like to return to the era of the Mattinglies and Boggs, when we had the top hitters hitting over .350 and not striking out much.

That actually might be happening now with Judge and Freeman.

I think the pitching is too good these days. The MLB keeps changing the game to drum up offense to make it more exciting, missing the fact that baseball is a 3-2 type game like they play in Japan. Now, they have pitch clocks, National League Designated Hitters, shortened strike zones, no infield shifts, extra innings ghost runners, shorter fields, enforcement of the prohibition on the "sticky stuff". They already lowered the mounds in the past; now, they are talking about lowering them more or moving them back. No care for the integrity of the game, only serving to drum up offense for the fans.

I am sure Ty Cobb would not be hitting .400 today - especially if they still had the same high mound and none of these other modern inventions. 

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I think the pitching is too good these days. The MLB keeps changing the game to drum up offense to make it more exciting, missing the fact that baseball is a 3-2 type game like they play in Japan. Now, they have pitch clocks, National League Designated Hitters, shortened strike zones, no infield shifts, extra innings ghost runners, shorter fields, enforcement of the prohibition on the "sticky stuff". They already lowered the mounds in the past; now, they are talking about lowering them more or moving them back. No care for the integrity of the game, only serving to drum up offense for the fans.

I am sure Ty Cobb would not be hitting .400 today - especially if they still had the same high mound and none of these other modern inventions. 

I'd like to limit games to three pitchers per game per team and limit rosters to 10 pitchers, the bullpens have become way too dominant and take up most of the team.

[mitchnick]

Cfs2 pretty consistent (2+ weeks) with around normal temps to below in the east for the rest of the summer, with at or above rainfall. Basically, a continuation of what we've been seeing. This is fairly different from recent summers, so I wonder whether it's a "hint" for a change in the winter Niña winter pattern. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Cfs2 pretty consistent (2+ weeks) with around normal temps to below in the east for the rest of the summer, with at or above rainfall. Basically, a continuation of what we've been seeing. This is fairly different from recent summers, so I wonder whether it's a "hint" for a change in the winter Niña winter pattern. 

It certainly hasn't warmed up much this year. Colder seems to be the predominant pattern since last September, relative to the average global warming. I wouldn't be surprised if something close to last Winter happens this coming Winter. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Current CPC outlook for Jan-Feb-March doesn't have any major warmth like the Summer and Fall forecasts have

except for Maine.. maybe they are going for -NAO.. and -PNA, -EPO probably

I would take a +0.2F Winter lol

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Cfs2 pretty consistent (2+ weeks) with around normal temps to below in the east for the rest of the summer, with at or above rainfall. Basically, a continuation of what we've been seeing. This is fairly different from recent summers, so I wonder whether it's a "hint" for a change in the winter Niña winter pattern. 

Almost reminds me of what happened in summer 2013. Prior to that year, the 3 years before (2010, 2011, and 2012) were very active Atlantic hurricane seasons and hot/dry summers in the East. 2013 was nearly the opposite: A very quiet Atlantic hurricane season and a record wet summer in the East, one that turned cold at the end of July in the Northeast (and was cold throughout the whole summer in the southeast).

The difference between last year and this year is the Pacific is active this year, which is why I am more confident in a below average Atlantic hurricane season in 2025.

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Almost reminds me of what happened in summer 2013. Prior to that year, the 3 years before (2010, 2011, and 2012) were very active Atlantic hurricane seasons and hot/dry summers in the East. 2013 was nearly the opposite: A very quiet Atlantic hurricane season and a record wet summer in the East, one that turned cold at the end of July in the Northeast (and was cold throughout the whole summer in the southeast).

The difference between last year and this year is the Pacific is active this year, which is why I am more confident in a below average Atlantic hurricane season in 2025.

You're thinking of 2014, 2013 was very much like the previous summers .... we usually group 2010-2013 together, it was the last time JFK hit 100. It was also the last time we had what I call a super heat wave..... 7+ days of 90+

[snowman19]

Cfs2 pretty consistent (2+ weeks) with around normal temps to below in the east for the rest of the summer, with at or above rainfall. Basically, a continuation of what we've been seeing. This is fairly different from recent summers, so I wonder whether it's a "hint" for a change in the winter Niña winter pattern. 

A “recent” Niña with a very wet summer that comes to mind was 2011. Tropical related rains back then of course

[snowman19]

The storm track through the Great Lakes was pushed further north and east than usual resulting in the snowiest February on record in Toronto. So you needed to be far enough north to get into the really good stuff. Plus the record warmth and open waters around Hudson Bay kept the Great Lakes warmer than they typically see during La Ninas since the source region was so much warmer than normal. This residual pattern could have been lingering from the previous winter which was the warmest on record for many spots around the Great Lakes.
The custom composites that I generated below isolate the storm track dates. These composites feature the 11 days this past winter that .20 or greater of precipitation fell around NYC Metro. So this was the dominant storm track for my area. The average temperature on these storm dates in NYC was 41°. It’s why the snowfall last winter was so low even though the average winter temperatures for the 3 month period was closer to 35.0°. 
The La Niña reference to the pattern is how strong the Southeast Ridge was along with the subtropical ridge from near Hawaii into the Southern Plains on the major winter storm track days around the Northeast. Also notice the familiar -NAO Greenland to Iceland block linking with the Southeast Ridge yet again. The La Niña mismatch feature was the stronger -EPO+PNA than usual. 
The extended Pacific Jet from Japan across the CONUS was also significantly stronger than past La Niña instances. My guess this is a result of the gradient between the record WPAC warm pool and Arctic cold in Siberia. So an enhanced La Niña pattern in some regards with variations leaving some areas of the Great Lakes drier and warmer than usual La Ninas. 
 



 
 

I’ve seen some musings that the very low arctic sea ice of the last decade may be playing some role in the wintertime +NAO/+AO states we’ve been seeing

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

You're thinking of 2014, 2013 was very much like the previous summers .... we usually group 2010-2013 together, it was the last time JFK hit 100. It was also the last time we had what I call a super heat wave..... 7+ days of 90+

2013 was a frontloaded summer at best. That one was pretty much done by 7/21. It's the only August without a 90+ day here in PHL in the last 40 years. Outside of that super heat wave in July, 2013's summer temperature stats were nearly identical to 2014 (with June and August both years differing by 0.1 

2010-2012 had widespread heat in the East: 

I don't see that with 2013 (which in fact looks cool in the Southeast):

 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

A “recent” Niña with a very wet summer that comes to mind was 2011. Tropical related rains back then of course

Of course, that was a much stronger la nina. The first year was a strong la nina, and the second a moderate la nina. Not to mention, a deepening -PDO and a pattern that changed at the start of November. Everything that could go wrong, went wrong, which is why we had the torch we had from November 2011-March 2012. (I don't see any similarities with now. In fact, I see much more similarities with 2013 than with 2011. Like now, we are much closer to ENSO neutral and a solar max in 2013. Definitely not what we had in 2011.)

2011 was dry in June and July. The record rains were in August and September.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

A “recent” Niña with a very wet summer that comes to mind was 2011. Tropical related rains back then of course

historic heat that summer too!!

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

2013 was a frontloaded summer at best. That one was pretty much done by 7/21. It's the only August without a 90+ day here in PHL in the last 40 years. Outside of that super heat wave in July, 2013's summer temperature stats were nearly identical to 2014 (with June and August both years differing by 0.1 

2010-2012 had widespread heat in the East: 

I don't see that with 2013 (which in fact looks cool in the Southeast):

 

Of course, that was a much stronger la nina. The first year was a strong la nina, and the second a moderate la nina. Not to mention, a deepening -PDO and a pattern that changed at the start of November. Everything that could go wrong, went wrong, which is why we had the torch we had from November 2011-March 2012. 

2011 was dry in June and July. The record rains were in August and September.

July 2011 had historic heat.

About July 2013 that was one hot month, I remember July 4th was very stuffy, big heat and no wind lol. That was the last time PHL hit 100 too wasn't it? 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I might not get out of the 60s Sunday and Monday. June is usually a big seasonal transition. I can't remember a time after my birthday (early June) where that has happened before (not getting out of the 60s). 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

July 2011 had historic heat.

About July 2013 that was one hot month, I remember July 4th was very stuffy, big heat and no wind lol. That was the last time PHL hit 100 too wasn't it? 

Yeah, 2011 was very historic heat. But even after the pattern turned wet, we still got very warm lows in August/September, which kept the temp departure above average.

July 18, 2012 was the last 100 here at PHL. We got close in 2013 (the first 3 weeks of July were hot), but after that, it was unusually cool.

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I might not get out of the 60s Sunday and Monday. June is usually a big seasonal transition. I can't remember a time after my birthday (early June) where that has happened before (not getting out of the 60s). 

I'm pretty sure it happened just 2 years ago. Remember the record low maxes during the summer solstice (June 21 and 22) in 2023?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'm pretty sure it happened just 2 years ago. Remember the record low maxes during the summer solstice (June 21 and 22) in 2023?

I don't remember.. I'm sure it has happened, but I've noticed a big difference in these days between May and June. 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, 2011 was very historic heat. But even after the pattern turned wet, we still got very warm lows in August/September, which kept the temp departure above average.

July 18, 2012 was the last 100 here at PHL. We got close in 2013 (the first 3 weeks of July were hot), but after that, it was unusually cool.

I'm pretty sure it happened just 2 years ago. Remember the record low maxes during the summer solstice (June 21 and 22) in 2023?

it's almost in the 50s here now omg

Our seasons match the solstices much better -- June 21 to September 21 is hotter than June 1 to August 31

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, 2011 was very historic heat. But even after the pattern turned wet, we still got very warm lows in August/September, which kept the temp departure above average.

July 18, 2012 was the last 100 here at PHL. We got close in 2013 (the first 3 weeks of July were hot), but after that, it was unusually cool.

I'm pretty sure it happened just 2 years ago. Remember the record low maxes during the summer solstice (June 21 and 22) in 2023?

June 4, 2023 we had a low of 49, the first 40s low in June since 2000.

 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, 2011 was very historic heat. But even after the pattern turned wet, we still got very warm lows in August/September, which kept the temp departure above average.

July 18, 2012 was the last 100 here at PHL. We got close in 2013 (the first 3 weeks of July were hot), but after that, it was unusually cool.

I'm pretty sure it happened just 2 years ago. Remember the record low maxes during the summer solstice (June 21 and 22) in 2023?

The only thing I remember about August 2011 was it being historically wet and getting that big earthquake.  Before Irene we had training thunderstorms that dropped 10 inches of rain here on a Saturday, then we had that 5.8 earthquake and then Irene.

August was much cooler than July, and it wasn't anywhere near as hot as 2010 was, which was our hottest summer on record, setting records for 90, 95 and 100 degree days here (thats how I judge heat, not by averages or mins.)