2025-2026 ENSO

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Our last major volcanic eruption was Mt. Pinatubo (in 1991), but we didn't really get the full effects of the cooling due to a strong el nino. Just the fact that it was able to cause any type of cooling, despite the strong el nino, should tell you how strong that volcanic eruption was. If Pinatubo happens ahead of strong la nina, like in the summer of 2007, there's no doubt in my mind we would have had a longer lasting temporary cooling period.

[jm1220]

23 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Just a warning, some of us in the lakes forum have speculated that he is a former troll account. 

And same here; bluewaves theories, regardless of whether it is just to get the pattern correct, or its a convenient scapegoat to make nyc winters warmer/less snowy, or a mixture of both...would imply good winters here in MI so I would have NO issue with his outcome. I just dont like anyone talking in absolutes as if they have a crystal ball.

While its very rare for NYC to have a better winter than here (tho it has happened- see 1957-58, 1960-61, 1995-96), it's a little more common for NYC to have a more favorable pattern for their local climate than we have for ours (even if the end result is still a "wintrier" winter here). So these assumptions that NYC is just never going to have a good winter barring a volcano eruption are imo ridiculous regardless of ANY background factors, let alone all of them. When it happens Ill be waiting patiently to hear the reasoning why it did. Especially from a snow perspective since this past winter was much, MUCH colder than anticipated, so the lack of east coast snowfall took the spotlight away from temps. If we ever DO have one of those years where its a good NYC winter and not a good one here, Ill be in a shitty mood, so I will REALLY wait for that explanation 

He isn’t saying NYC will never have a good winter again unless we have another Pinatubo or Yellowstone blows up (in which case we have more serious problems lol). We had a pretty good one in 2020-21. But we’re definitely in a steep downturn overall and it’s fairly easy to see why-it’s being ruined largely by the W Pacific on steroids. To me there’s not much if/but or deep analysis needed and it makes a lot of sense as much as I hate it. Reality doesn’t care. We see time after time decent setups literally blown/sheared apart by the fast Pacific jet or the ridge/trough orientation pushed too far east, or the SE ridge takes over and we get lousy cutters/SWFE that can be great for I-90 and the Lakes but horrendous here. You can just see how it keeps evolving. Until that base state changes where we’re in either a defined Nina or quasi-Nina with the warm W Pacific which cancels out even strong El Niño, I don’t see how our outcomes change. There can be a winter like 2020-21 every once in a blue moon in this state where other factors can overcome it but it will be the exception. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

How were they? Hot, hot, hot lol. The 1930s-1950s were by far the era of most 90F+ days here. We had a spike again in the 2010s (but even then, far less 100s than the 1930s-50s) but have already digressed in the 2020s. Detroit has hit 100F+ a total of 38 times in 155 years of record, and 21 of those 38 times fell between 1930-1955.

Yes, the early 2010s streak was extreme but shortlived.  It was 2010-2013 while the era from the 1930s through the 1950s started in 1932 (and what a warm winter 1931-32 was!) and lasted until 1966.  We had a big drought in the 60s that actually extended it through that decade too.

 

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Our last major volcanic eruption was Mt. Pinatubo (in 1991), but we didn't really get the full effects of the cooling due to a strong el nino. Just the fact that it was able to cause any type of cooling, despite the strong el nino, should tell you how strong that volcanic eruption was. If Pinatubo happens ahead of strong la nina, like in the summer of 2007, there's no doubt in my mind we would have had a longer lasting temporary cooling period.

I thought it was because volcanoes like Pinatubo have more of an influence over the summer than the winter?  It had a big impact in summer 1992.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

How were they? Hot, hot, hot lol. The 1930s-1950s were by far the era of most 90F+ days here. We had a spike again in the 2010s (but even then, far less 100s than the 1930s-50s) but have already digressed in the 2020s. Detroit has hit 100F+ a total of 38 times in 155 years of record, and 21 of those 38 times fell between 1930-1955.

I found something really interesting about JFK's heat record.

JFK has hit 100+ 19 times (between 100-104) including two streaks of 3 days of 100+

JFK has also hit 99 19 times lol.....

 

so 38 times of 99+

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

My analysis isn’t contingent on whether folks here are receptive or not. My only focus is getting the pattern correct. You will notice how we haven’t had a single analog for any winter forecast issued in the last 30 years verify if that analog was in the prior base state. 

Base state number 1 was from the late 1800s into the late 1970s. Base state 2 was 1984 to 1997. Base state 3 occurred from 1998 to 2015. Base state 4 was from 2016 to 2022. The new warmest base state 5 only began in 2023.

I have begun using this forecast and analysis technique with great success in recent years. But there are some overlapping features which have continued through the varying base states. Such as La Niña mismatch winters which I identified for the recent winter forecast last October. The mismatch replayed during the recent 24-25 winter leading to the strong  -EPO and +PNA. But this base state was so much warmer that a 13-14 analog couldn’t be supported. This is what I pointed out last December. 

I first began using this technique back in the 2010s. There were numerous instances during this decade when some outlets were going with 1970s analog packages . But I pointed out how this new base state couldn’t support that type of cold. 

So in effect each new warmer base state had been producing weaker reflections from prior eras. Such as the 24-25 winter very weakly reflecting the strong +PNA -EPO of 13-14 and 14-15. But the much warmer Pacific and faster Pacific Jet eroded the ridge from the west leading to frequent jet extensions which knocked the ridge down.

The other feature was the lack of a strong cold trough to the east. I also pointed out last fall how warm Canada was compared to those earlier years. Which continued into last winter. So the amount of Arctic air in North America was much more limited compared to 13-14 and 14-15.

Since we are only a few years into this new warmer 2023 base state, there will probably be more weak reflections of winters from the past to come. But getting the levels of cold and snow and cold will struggle compared to earlier eras.

The other thing to observe is that we still haven’t had a +7 winter and higher warm departure like occurred in 2001-2002 in this new much warmer climate from Philly to Boston. The departures in 23-24 and 24-25 have come in just below those levels with smaller departures than 01-02.  So 22-23 was only about .5° cooler in the actual temperatures than 01-02 with a smaller departure in a much warmer base state. If we get a +7 in this new much warmer base state, then the 01-02 winter record for warmth will be easily eclipsed. 

But it’s uncertain as to whether or when we would see a +7 winter in this much warmer climate. Something that extreme would probably only become obvious once we’re were into the actual pattern. As it’s not easy to predict a +7 winter ahead of time.

But my guess is that there is at least some chance we see a winter that would exceed the warmth experienced in 22-23 and 23-24 from Philly to Boston by 2030.

The one caveat is a major volcanic eruption such as the earth hasn’t seen in hundreds or perhaps thousands of years to temporarily shift us back into a colder base state. 

Hold on a sec Chris.  You know I'm 100% with you regarding climate change and how it has affected global weather patterns.

But on the local scale it's not as clear cut as that.  Specifically with regards to using old analogs do you remember when all the mild predictions came out for 2010-11 as late as the middle of December?  Just because it was a strong la nina? And then when we had unrelenting cold and snow we started looking at old analogs from the 1910s to find strong la ninas that were as cold and snowy as 2010-11 was?

 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

June 2023 was helped by the smoke and very low humidity. That wasn't even the coldest average temperature days of the month. We had highs in the 60s, and thus degree heating days, later in the month (during the solstice, on the 21st and 22nd).  

June 4 was only 5-6 degrees below average. June 21-22 was 12-13 degrees below average. That's a temperature departure you see in winter, not during the summer solstice.

to be fair, I think it's more likely to get such a departure from average in the summer if you have a renegade closed off low and onshore flow with rain.  Average temperatures mute the extremes, so they don't really show us extreme highs or extreme lows.

As an example July 1993 which had our most extensive and extreme heatwave of my adult lifetime (July 1977 had an even more extreme one but I was only 3 years old lol), had a day with a high of 66 and a low of 62 on the 2nd, because of a big rainstorm with onshore flow and high winds.  A week later the historic heatwave started.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought it was because volcanoes like Pinatubo have more of an influence over the summer than the winter?  It had a big impact in summer 1992.

 

Timing of the volcano has an impact as well. The effects of it usually have a lag, and Pinatubo happend in June 1991, so the summer of 1992 would have been one year after. Also, the effects may have lingered into the following the winter, with the major snowstorm in March 1993. 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Timing of the volcano has an impact as well. The effects of it usually have a lag, and Pinatubo happend in June 1991, so the summer of 1992 would have been one year after. Also, the effects may have lingered into the following the winter, with the major snowstorm in March 1993. 

and perhaps 1993-94 too which was severely cold and the models had huge problems with all the storms we had that year, underestimating the lingering cold.

 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

He isn’t saying NYC will never have a good winter again unless we have another Pinatubo or Yellowstone blows up (in which case we have more serious problems lol). We had a pretty good one in 2020-21. But we’re definitely in a steep downturn overall and it’s fairly easy to see why-it’s being ruined largely by the W Pacific on steroids. To me there’s not much if/but or deep analysis needed and it makes a lot of sense as much as I hate it. Reality doesn’t care. We see time after time decent setups literally blown/sheared apart by the fast Pacific jet or the ridge/trough orientation pushed too far east, or the SE ridge takes over and we get lousy cutters/SWFE that can be great for I-90 and the Lakes but horrendous here. You can just see how it keeps evolving. Until that base state changes where we’re in either a defined Nina or quasi-Nina with the warm W Pacific which cancels out even strong El Niño, I don’t see how our outcomes change. There can be a winter like 2020-21 every once in a blue moon in this state where other factors can overcome it but it will be the exception. 

Its always ok to agree with some stuff and disagree with others. Thats pretty much where im at. 

I do hope nyc sees some good winters soon, but obviously im more concerned with what goes on in SE Michigan and im still liking 2025-26 a lot at this early stage. I like that this thread sometimes strays OT (but not necessarily TOO OT lol) because I really look at it as an all encompassing "thoughts for next winter" thread rather than JUST Enso. But I do feel like different regions definitely have different goals in mind. NYC folks seem to really be into the final snowfall number. And while that certainly interests me, Im more about how the winter is going to act as a whole. Its like one big puzzle. The timing and length of different patterns will really dictate what kind of winter it is, and especially how the general public perceives it, moreso than what that final number is following the last snowfall, likely in April 2026.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its always ok to agree with some stuff and disagree with others. Thats pretty much where im at. 

I do hope nyc sees some good winters soon, but obviously im more concerned with what goes on in SE Michigan and im still liking 2025-26 a lot at this early stage. I like that this thread sometimes strays OT (but not necessarily TOO OT lol) because I really look at it as an all encompassing "thoughts for next winter" thread rather than JUST Enso. But I do feel like different regions definitely have different goals in mind. NYC folks seem to really be into the final snowfall number. And while that certainly interests me, Im more about how the winter is going to act as a whole. Its like one big puzzle. The timing and length of different patterns will really dictate what kind of winter it is, and especially how the general public perceives it, moreso than what that final number is following the last snowfall, likely in April 2026.

We want pretty much diametrically opposite patterns in the winter, although we have some like 2010-11 where we both do well. I think the final snow number comes from the fact that here, we usually get all or nothing type seasons and big individual storms rather than smaller nickel and dimes that can still get to 40+ inches on the season. And sustained cold is quite rare at least the last 10-15 years. Generally you want more of these Nina type setups since they favor the Lakes while I desperately want it to become more El Niño like. Whatever can make this wretchedness since Jan 2022 end I’m all for. 

[michsnowfreak]

37 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We want pretty much diametrically opposite patterns in the winter, although we have some like 2010-11 where we both do well. I think the final snow number comes from the fact that here, we usually get all or nothing type seasons and big individual storms rather than smaller nickel and dimes that can still get to 40+ inches on the season. And sustained cold is quite rare at least the last 10-15 years. Generally you want more of these Nina type setups since they favor the Lakes while I desperately want it to become more El Niño like. Whatever can make this wretchedness since Jan 2022 end I’m all for. 

Good point in bold. There are winters where we both have done well, BUT when you examine even those winters, you will notice its different parts of the winter that stand out for each of us.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, jm1220 said:

He isn’t saying NYC will never have a good winter again unless we have another Pinatubo or Yellowstone blows up (in which case we have more serious problems lol). We had a pretty good one in 2020-21. But we’re definitely in a steep downturn overall and it’s fairly easy to see why-it’s being ruined largely by the W Pacific on steroids. To me there’s not much if/but or deep analysis needed and it makes a lot of sense as much as I hate it. Reality doesn’t care. We see time after time decent setups literally blown/sheared apart by the fast Pacific jet or the ridge/trough orientation pushed too far east, or the SE ridge takes over and we get lousy cutters/SWFE that can be great for I-90 and the Lakes but horrendous here. You can just see how it keeps evolving. Until that base state changes where we’re in either a defined Nina or quasi-Nina with the warm W Pacific which cancels out even strong El Niño, I don’t see how our outcomes change. There can be a winter like 2020-21 every once in a blue moon in this state where other factors can overcome it but it will be the exception. 

I think everyone agrees with that...my contention is more that we are just in a shitty multidecdal pattern that its likely enhanced by CC.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 I think it's prudent to be skeptical, but I am willing to entertain it.....I just think its folly to speak in absolutes and act as if its a forgone conclusion.

I don't think the decadal state is going to change anytime soon.. June will likely be the 4th consecutive month with -PNA.  I think there is intuition that what is happening is going to continue forward, but what global warming is, is a more general thing than the current state of the global pattern. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think everyone agrees with that...my contention is more that we are just in a shitty multidecdal pattern that its likely enhanced by CC.

For example tho, I think the 2024-25 winter could've had a lot more potential than it showed. So a similar outcome this coming winter may yield better results, especially for the Midwest and northern New England, but possibly further south as well. I think avoiding a major drought in the central and west states this summer will help too. 

2 of the past 3 winters are good examples of how the pattern is more noticeable than the final snow number here. As I said, the 2024-25 winter dropped total snowfall inches of just upper 20s in Detroit to the highest being upper 30s in the microclimate NW burbs. But yet the public viewed it as an "old fashioned winter" due to the frozen white landscape much of the time (area-wide, but esp north). Just two years prior in 2022-23, snowfall totals ranged from just under 40" at Detroit to the upper 50s in those NW burbs, yet the vibe was "what winter?/mild winter" due to the mild temps and frequent bare ground spells. 

Now i dont entirely discount the final snow number- far from it. I was frustrated this past winter at what i thought was a winter that underperformed the hand it was dealt, much like I thought 2022-23 was snowier than it should be. 

So if the pattern this Fall looks similar to last fall, I urge everyone to not expect anything close to a verbatim repeat of their sensible weather. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't think the decadal state is going to change anytime soon.. June will likely be the 4th consecutive month with -PNA.  I think there is intuition that what is happening is going to continue forward, but what global warming is, is a more general thing than the current state of the global pattern. 

Yea, I think the real flip is near the turn of the decade.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

For example tho, I think the 2024-25 winter could've had a lot more potential than it showed. So a similar outcome this coming winter may yield better results, especially for the Midwest and northern New England, but possibly further south as well. I think avoiding a major drought in the central and west states this summer will help too. 

2 of the past 3 winters are good examples of how the pattern is more noticeable than the final snow number here. As I said, the 2024-25 winter dropped total snowfall inches of just upper 20s in Detroit to the highest being upper 30s in the microclimate NW burbs. But yet the public viewed it as an "old fashioned winter" due to the frozen white landscape much of the time (area-wide, but esp north). Just two years prior in 2022-23, snowfall totals ranged from just under 40" at Detroit to the upper 50s in those NW burbs, yet the vibe was "what winter?/mild winter" due to the mild temps and frequent bare ground spells. 

Now i dont entirely discount the final snow number- far from it. I was frustrated this past winter at what i thought was a winter that underperformed the hand it was dealt, much like I thought 2022-23 was snowier than it should be. 

So if the pattern this Fall looks similar to last fall, I urge everyone to not expect anything close to a verbatim repeat of their sensible weather. 

NNE did fine....it's SNE that keeps getting the train run on it by mother nature.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think everyone agrees with that...my contention is more that we are just in a shitty multidecdal pattern that its likely enhanced by CC.

and the solar maximum (though it's really great for northern lights displays even in the south.)

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Good point in bold. There are winters where we both have done well, BUT when you examine even those winters, you will notice its different parts of the winter that stand out for each of us.

Yes and it's not always about ENSO either.

My favorite winters were a combo of different things.

1993-94

1995-96

2002-03

2009-10

2010-11

2013-14

2014-15

2017-18

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes and it's not always about ENSO either.

My favorite winters were a combo of different things.

1993-94

1995-96

2002-03

2009-10

2010-11

2013-14

2014-15

2017-18

 

 

My favorite going back to 1990:

2013-14

2010-11

2007-08

2014-15

2004-05

2002-03

2008-09

2017-18

2000-01

1998-99

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

My favorite going back to 1990:

2013-14

2010-11

2007-08

2014-15

2004-05

2002-03

2008-09

2017-18

2000-01

1998-99

 

1995-1996

2014-2015

2010-2011

2004-2005

2017-2018

2002-2003

 

[roardog]

11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

My favorite going back to 1990:

2013-14

2010-11

2007-08

2014-15

2004-05

2002-03

2008-09

2017-18

2000-01

1998-99

 

I wouldn’t think 98-99 would be your kind of winter. Some great snow depth  in January for awhile but it certainly wasn’t a cold, snow covered winter overall. I would actually put this past winter above 98-99 for overall wintery feel. 

[jm1220]

5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Good point in bold. There are winters where we both have done well, BUT when you examine even those winters, you will notice its different parts of the winter that stand out for each of us.

We don’t have a “bread and butter” snow pattern here. We can score in just about every snowstorm setup but also get totally screwed if one part goes awry. Big Miller A moisture bombs common in El Niño are DC’s bread and butter. It gave us our biggest snowstorm ever in Jan 2016 but we also got zilch in the 2/6/10 storm by 20 miles. Miller B late bloomers are Boston’s bread and butter-they can hammer NYC if they form soon enough or the city gets zilch. That’s why NYC is by far the hardest city to forecast for in the winter in a snowstorm setup-small changes mean hammered or cirrus or rain/sleet for a big chunk like in 2/8/13. Lake cutters and SWFEs I assume are yours that are guaranteed for at least something decent 4-5 days out. Those 90% of the time here are cold rain. Marginal setups more and more are cold rain in the city, and the 3-6” type cold clippers have gone extinct. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1995-1996

2014-2015

2010-2011

2004-2005

2017-2018

2002-2003

 

All of those great except the infamous nightmare of 1995-96. Funny story. In 1994-95 (I was 11) i would sneak outside and measure snow on the back porch and my dad would get mad thinking I was tracking snow in. But the next winter my mom said I could measure with my budding interest in weather, so that began my now 30 winters and counting of continuous snow record (I bought a house a mile from my parents so my record is basically the same location). So 1995-96 was my inaugural year. In the years before internet and stuff i primarily relied on TWC. And i remember vaguely seeing coverage of these monster snowstorms and I kept thinking, why is everything missing us? I ended up with 31.3" but 12" of that came in March, including a 7" power crusher on March 20th. Even in January it was hard to enjoy back to back 2-inch snowfalls knowing they were originally forecast as big storms for us that veered south last minute. In the years since I was able to figure out how the pattern really was, and im SO glad I've never seen anything like it since!

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

I wouldn’t think 98-99 would be your kind of winter. Some great snow depth  in January for awhile but it certainly wasn’t a cold, snow covered winter overall. I would actually put this past winter above 98-99 for overall wintery feel. 

Good point. But I was determined to make that list until I ran into a 1990s winter lol (anyone from here will tell you how superior 2000s/2010s winters were to 1990s). I could also arguably put 2020-21 ahead of 1998-99, but the paralyzing snow of Jan 1999, coming after a snowless Fall and anemic 90s winters was a sight to see. Then we had another snow blitz in Mar 1999. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

We don’t have a “bread and butter” snow pattern here. We can score in just about every snowstorm setup but also get totally screwed if one part goes awry. Big Miller A moisture bombs common in El Niño are DC’s bread and butter. It gave us our biggest snowstorm ever in Jan 2016 but we also got zilch in the 2/6/10 storm by 20 miles. Miller B late bloomers are Boston’s bread and butter-they can hammer NYC if they form soon enough or the city gets zilch. That’s why NYC is by far the hardest city to forecast for in the winter in a snowstorm setup-small changes mean hammered or cirrus or rain/sleet for a big chunk like in 2/8/13. Lake cutters and SWFEs I assume are yours that are guaranteed for at least something decent 4-5 days out. Those 90% of the time here are cold rain. Marginal setups more and more are cold rain in the city, and the 3-6” type cold clippers have gone extinct. 

I frequently talk on fb to a former poster from here who lives on Long Island and I definitely see how different the weather is and is to predict. It's crazy for me to talk to a fellow snow lover who had seen several 30" snowstorms in his lifetime yet in recent years gets excited if grass tips are covered. That's such a wild climate.

Believe me we get plenty of model mayhem here, but the sheer magnitude of some of the storms that models see hitting the coast that never materialize, or the ones that can sneak up on you is crazy. And i imagine the mixing scenario must be maddening, once models lock in mega qpf but disagree on a mix line. We still get clippers but seems like not as many as we used to. A clipper is actually usually a fun thing to track because some will surprise you with great dynamics and a boost when it crosses the lakes (but just as many others peter out to crap). I love cutters, swfe, and bowling balls...then the unpredictability of lake squalls in the storms wake. So as long as we get the goods im never one to piss and moan when you guys get hammered. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Negative PNA

After the lowest daily PNA since 2017, 8 years, in May, the PNA is forecasted to fall below -1 again

June would be the 4th consecutive month with negative PNA

I rolled forward the March-April-May PNA and April-May-June PNA to the following Winter, to see if it leads anything. 

Surprisingly, there is no PNA signal the following Winter.. correlation is near 0 in the North Pacific. So to say that this Spring/early Summer PNA is going to lead the Winter is not completely right. 

There is, however, a NAO signal. Negative PNA March-June puts the probability at about 56-57% that the Winter NAO will be negative [correlation of below maps is opposite]

US temps for the following Winter are neutral, for the -PNA rolled forward. About the best you can hope for. 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

My favorite going back to 1990:

2013-14

2010-11

2007-08

2014-15

2004-05

2002-03

2008-09

2017-18

2000-01

1998-99

 

So we have a few that good winters for both of us.

I only listed what I consider A winters.  A few of the other ones you listed were B+ here, among them 2004-05, 2008-09 and 2000-01. 2003-04 also fits into that group.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

We don’t have a “bread and butter” snow pattern here. We can score in just about every snowstorm setup but also get totally screwed if one part goes awry. Big Miller A moisture bombs common in El Niño are DC’s bread and butter. It gave us our biggest snowstorm ever in Jan 2016 but we also got zilch in the 2/6/10 storm by 20 miles. Miller B late bloomers are Boston’s bread and butter-they can hammer NYC if they form soon enough or the city gets zilch. That’s why NYC is by far the hardest city to forecast for in the winter in a snowstorm setup-small changes mean hammered or cirrus or rain/sleet for a big chunk like in 2/8/13. Lake cutters and SWFEs I assume are yours that are guaranteed for at least something decent 4-5 days out. Those 90% of the time here are cold rain. Marginal setups more and more are cold rain in the city, and the 3-6” type cold clippers have gone extinct. 

January 2016 was like February 1983 on steroids.  The added moisture with that storm was definitely CC induced, there was a research paper on it.

30.7 inches of snow with 3.00 inches of liquid equivalent at JFK

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1995-1996

2014-2015

2010-2011

2004-2005

2017-2018

2002-2003

 

Ray you must have done really well in 1993-94 too.