2025-2026 ENSO

[michsnowfreak]

9 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It's now "cherrypicking" to end a trend using all available data up through the most recent year rather than cutting off over a decade ago? And you used your backyard when I looked at dozens of sites across the lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and East Coast.

Its cherry picking because its a short time span. You realize that if any of the next several winters have above avg snowfall that regression line goes right back up at those places.

[TheClimateChanger]

4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its cherry picking because its a short time span. You realize that if any of the next several winters have above avg snowfall that regression line goes right back up at those places.

You are incorrect. The last several winters have been well below the trendline, suggesting an accelerating decrease. It would actually take a couple of somewhat above trend years just to keep the trendline at the same slope. If the next few winters were way above normal, then, yes, the trendline would increase. But I don't believe that will happen. Certainly, the occasional year could be way above normal. I mean Charleston, West Virginia had 106" of snow in 1995-96, which is more than 2 feet more than the most observed in Pittsburgh. But the 1961-1990 average at Charleston was ~31" versus ~42" at Pittsburgh.

[TheClimateChanger]

I think people are still in denial mode here. The change from 2011-2013 era to the last 36 months or so has been on the order of .5C. The 1990s are about as cold globally compared to the present, as the 1800s were to the 1990s. It makes little sense to run a linear regression back to the 1800s, when there was a relatively stable climate [only comparatively modest increase] from 1880 to 1970. Not even getting into site changes and changes in protocol. A lot of river cities saw moves to suburban airports with elevation increases of 300 to 500 feet versus downtown. With that said, in many cases, going back further to 1960 or 1970 would, in the majority of cases, increase the decline, by including snowier years from the 1960s to early 1980s. My analysis actually starts with a few notoriously low snow winters, a fact that @LibertyBellsaid was "ironic."

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yeah I wasnt denying the magnitude of March 2012, just for which areas were hardest hit. 

I think the duration of the cold in Feb 2015 was what was so impressive, not any individual number. Jan 2019 and even Jan 2024 had very impressive arctic blasts in areas which created some real low temps at places, but the months themselves were nothing impressive from a mean temp standpoint. 

No doubt that in modern times February 2015 was a very cold month from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. But it came up short of being a February benchmark for cold like 1875 was in a place like Detroit and 1934 was in NYC. March 2012 established the new March benchmark for warmth in a spot like Detroit. 

March 2012 in Detroit set a new warmest monthly average temperature of 50.7° which was +2.8° warmer than the previous warmest March of 47.9° in 1945. The monthly high of 86° was +4° warmer than the previous March monthly high which was 82° in 1945.

February 2015 Detroit the monthly average of 14.1°while significant, was +1.9° warmer than the coldest February in 1875 at 12.2°. So a very respectable 2nd place finish for coldest. The monthly low of -13° was very impressive also. But it was +6° warmer than the -20° record low in 1875.

 

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I think people are still in denial mode here. The change from 2011-2013 era to the last 36 months or so has been on the order of .5C. The 1990s are about as cold globally compared to the present, as the 1800s were to the 1990s. It makes little sense to run a linear regression back to the 1800s, when there was a relatively stable climate [only comparatively modest increase] from 1880 to 1970. Not even getting into site changes and changes in protocol. A lot of river cities saw moves to suburban airports with elevation increases of 300 to 500 feet versus downtown. With that said, in many cases, going back further to 1960 or 1970 would, in the majority of cases, increase the decline, by including snowier years from the 1960s to early 1980s. My analysis actually starts with a few notoriously low snow winters, a fact that @LibertyBellsaid was "ironic."

I would contend that the largest climate change difference between decades was between the 1940s and 1950s.

The modern climate started in the 1950s, which was a much warmer decade than anything we had previously.

 

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

If you truly take an interest in climate change, thats fine. But your posts come across more troll-like than anything else. 

He's not a bad guy but his opinion that we would be better off without air conditioning because we would then take climate change more seriously is a dubious one at best.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I would contend that the largest climate change difference between decades was between the 1940s and 1950s.

The modern climate started in the 1950s, which was a much warmer decade than anything we had previously.

 

Perhaps for the eastern United States, but certainly not globally.

[LibertyBell]

51 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

We had that event with Pinatubo, but its effect was minimized by a strong el nino in 1991-92. If we had a strong la nina that year, like 2007-08, we would have had a -0.7, -0.8 cooling event.

I was wondering why Pinatubo didn't give us the crazy cold that was predicted.  Maybe volcanoes influence summer weather more than winter winter? 1992 did have a very cool summer.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Perhaps for the eastern United States, but certainly not globally.

WW2 was legendary for its brutal winters (similar to WW1 in that respect).  The 1940s were the last time NYC reached a temperature lower than -2 (it was -6 in February 1943). 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Now, here is the cold winters of the 1970s (1976-77, 1977-78, and 1978-79). Notice that, unlike 2013-14 and 2014-15, we don't have a warm west coast:

Besides 1977-78 weren't those other winters very dry?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

February 2015 was impressively cold on a regional basis here in the Northeast ranking as our only top 10 coldest month in the Northeast since 2010. While there have been over 50 top 10 warmest months since then. February 2015 was the 2nd coldest on record in the Northeast. But nationally it was only the 52nd coldest since the geographic footprint of the cold was very small. Back in the old days these Arctic outbreaks covered much more real estate and weren’t limited to localized geographic regions. February 1979 was the 3rd coldest on record in the Northeast and was also the 7th coldest nationally. 

So even other legendary cold months like January 2004 and January 1994 don't compare to what we had in February 1979?

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, he is the first person I have ever seen argue against the idea that a warmer climate has more moisture available...irregardless of the degree of warming cancelling that out.

 

45 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I didn't say the atmosphere doesn't hold moisture. Just that there's only a modest positive trend in total precipitation in the winter months. I went back and looked at DJFM and there's actually a decreasing trend further south (DC & Baltimore) over those four months. An increase in moisture tells us little about snowfall, without considering temperature. The atmosphere over Charlotte, North Carolina holds, on average, more moisture in the winter than New York City - but obviously Charlotte doesn't get more snowfall.

Clearly I understand that...I wasn't implying anything about snowfall. I simply questioned the idea that a warmer climate wouldn't lead to an increase in mositure.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yup. Which is why those of us in colder climates to begin with should be licking our chops at the POTENTIAL a wetter winter climate holds wrt snowy winters when the patterns are good. Cold is such a subjective word. Whats "cold" to one region is "mild" to another. But snow is snow. 

When we JUST lived through the snowiest stretch on record just over a decade ago, Im supposed to believe that a few lower snow winters (and here they have been just that - lower snow, nothing close to record low) are the point of no return. When I live surrounded by the Great Lakes? Sure, Jan. Similar case for new england with the ocean nearby.

The inability to understand weather patterns and how patterns work is WILD when someone is trying to hammer in one single (often incorrect) argument lol.

Eh....from your area to NNE, yes....I hope to break even...def. bad for those south of me.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Besides 1977-78 weren't those other winters very dry?

 

1976-77 was dry, but one that turned very warm during the spring.

1978-79 was a very wet winter, but that followed a very dry fall.

1979-80 and 1980-81 were very dry winters. 79-80, I think, is the least snowy winter in Boston.

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

You are incorrect. The last several winters have been well below the trendline, suggesting an accelerating decrease. It would actually take a couple of somewhat above trend years just to keep the trendline at the same slope. If the next few winters were way above normal, then, yes, the trendline would increase. But I don't believe that will happen. Certainly, the occasional year could be way above normal. I mean Charleston, West Virginia had 106" of snow in 1995-96, which is more than 2 feet more than the most observed in Pittsburgh. But the 1961-1990 average at Charleston was ~31" versus ~42" at Pittsburgh.

I agree with this.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I was wondering why Pinatubo didn't give us the crazy cold that was predicted.  Maybe volcanoes influence summer weather more than winter winter? 1992 did have a very cool summer.

 

There is a lot more variance in relation to the impact of volcanic eriptions that folks realize.....depends where they are and how strong. The very strong PV of the early 90s was likely a byproduct of Pinatubo.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is a lot more variance in relation to the impact of volcanic eriptions that folks realize.....depends where they are and show strong. The very strong PV of the early 90s was likely a byproduct of Pinatubo.

Maybe the extremely cold and stormy 1993-94 winter was a holdover from Pinatubo?

 

[michsnowfreak]

43 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I think people are still in denial mode here. The change from 2011-2013 era to the last 36 months or so has been on the order of .5C. The 1990s are about as cold globally compared to the present, as the 1800s were to the 1990s. It makes little sense to run a linear regression back to the 1800s, when there was a relatively stable climate [only comparatively modest increase] from 1880 to 1970. Not even getting into site changes and changes in protocol. A lot of river cities saw moves to suburban airports with elevation increases of 300 to 500 feet versus downtown. With that said, in many cases, going back further to 1960 or 1970 would, in the majority of cases, increase the decline, by including snowier years from the 1960s to early 1980s. My analysis actually starts with a few notoriously low snow winters, a fact that @LibertyBellsaid was "ironic."

The climate has never been "stable" here and many other places. Stable is a place like San Diego or Barrow. As a matter of fact, Ive yet to see a more erratic grouping of winters than we had from 1875-1882 (see bottom). Just because the globe is warmer than it was, the actual climate was anything but stable from 1880 to 1870 here. The year-to-year and decade-to-decade variability always has and always will exist. If there is to be any longterm significant change in snowfall in the Great Lakes region, we will need a lot more years of data to come.

Winter avg temp at Detroit (current avg is 28.4F for reference):

1874-75: 19.1F
1875-76: 31.0F
1876-77: 23.5F
1877-78: 31.5F
1878-79: 21.8F
1879-80: 32.5F
1880-81: 21.8F
1881-82: 37.0F (warmest on record to this day)
 

[michsnowfreak]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

WW2 was legendary for its brutal winters (similar to WW1 in that respect).  The 1940s were the last time NYC reached a temperature lower than -2 (it was -6 in February 1943). 

I have looked into some of the eastern winters of the 1940s to compare to the meek ones we had here, and Id have to say its probably the most different of any decade. Those winters sucked here. But I think a lot of it was due to dry weather and bad luck. Though there were some mild winters in the 1940s, the decade was easily colder than either the 1930s or the 1950s. But it sucked for snow. It is by far Detroits least snowiest decade on record (avg 28.7"). We had 3 major ice storms but no memorable snowstorms.

In terms of the WWII years, 1942-43 was the best winter of the decade. 1944-45 was cold and white but very dry. 1941-42 and 1943-44 were very bare winters overall.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I have looked into some of the eastern winters of the 1940s to compare to the meek ones we had here, and Id have to say its probably the most different of any decade. Those winters sucked here. But I think a lot of it was due to dry weather and bad luck. Though there were some mild winters in the 1940s, the decade was easily colder than either the 1930s or the 1950s. But it sucked for snow. It is by far Detroits least snowiest decade on record (avg 28.7"). We had 3 major ice storms but no memorable snowstorms.

In terms of the WWII years, 1942-43 was the best winter of the decade. 1944-45 was cold and white but very dry. 1941-42 and 1943-44 were very bare winters overall.

How did you do in 1947-48, it was NYC's snowiest winter on record and had the longest duration snowcover until 1995-96 and 2010-11 came along.

 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The climate has never been "stable" here and many other places. Stable is a place like San Diego or Barrow. As a matter of fact, Ive yet to see a more erratic grouping of winters than we had from 1875-1882 (see bottom). Just because the globe is warmer than it was, the actual climate was anything but stable from 1880 to 1870 here. The year-to-year and decade-to-decade variability always has and always will exist. If there is to be any longterm significant change in snowfall in the Great Lakes region, we will need a lot more years of data to come.

Winter avg temp at Detroit (current avg is 28.4F for reference):

1874-75: 19.1F
1875-76: 31.0F
1876-77: 23.5F
1877-78: 31.5F
1878-79: 21.8F
1879-80: 32.5F
1880-81: 21.8F
1881-82: 37.0F (warmest on record to this day)
 

wild was 1874-75 your coldest on record?

April 1875 was historically cold and snowy here, like January in April lol.

[TheClimateChanger]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How did you do in 1947-48, it was NYC's snowiest winter on record and had the longest duration snowcover until 1995-96 and 2010-11 came along.

 

The 1940s had some impressive winters. 1944-1945 had very impressive snow cover in the lower Great Lakes region, and 1947-48 was very snowy in the northeast, especially around Worcester. I think they had like 3 feet of snow on the ground in February in Worcester, Massachusetts and that's from when observations were taken in town and not at the more upland airport location. 1948-49 & 1949-50 were low snow, but very cold and snowy in parts of the northern Plains and northwest. I would point out, however, that 1950 was the coldest year overall for the U.S. since 1929, and 1951 was even colder, per NCEI. 1950-51 was very snowy in the Ohio Valley and Appalachians.

[michsnowfreak]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How did you do in 1947-48, it was NYC's snowiest winter on record and had the longest duration snowcover until 1995-96 and 2010-11 came along.

 

A frozen, white, cold winter...with below avg snow. With 89 days of 1"+ snowcover, only 1903-04, 1977-78, and 2013-14 had more. So very impressive in that regard. But the peak depth was only 5". A New Years ice storm left a frozen tundra for weeks. The total snowfall was just 28.4". No other winter on record had so much snowcover with so little snowfall.

Ive seen some cool pics of the Dec 26, 1947 storm at NYC.

[TheClimateChanger]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How did you do in 1947-48, it was NYC's snowiest winter on record and had the longest duration snowcover until 1995-96 and 2010-11 came along.

 

1947-48 was mostly below normal snowfall in the Lakes. The Northeast and New England fared way better.

[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The 1940s had some impressive winters. 1944-1945 had very impressive snow cover in the lower Great Lakes region, and 1947-48 was very snowy in the northeast, especially around Worcester. I think they had like 3 feet of snow on the ground in February in Worcester, Massachusetts and that's from when observations were taken in town and not at the more upland airport location. 1948-49 & 1949-50 were low snow, but very cold and snowy in parts of the northern Plains and northwest. I would point out, however, that 1950 was the coldest year overall for the U.S. since 1929, and 1951 was even colder, per NCEI. 1950-51 was very snowy in the Ohio Valley and Appalachians.

1944-45 was a very cold white winter than suddenly turned into record warmth in March, starting vegetation a month early, then April and May frosts/freezes destroyed the fruit crops, similar to (if not worse than) 2012.

Actual snowfall numbers and technicalities aside, here 1942-43, 1944-45 & 1947-48 were very white winters and 1941-42, 1943-44, & 1948-49 were very bare winters.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The 1940s had some impressive winters. 1944-1945 had very impressive snow cover in the lower Great Lakes region, and 1947-48 was very snowy in the northeast, especially around Worcester. I think they had like 3 feet of snow on the ground in February in Worcester, Massachusetts and that's from when observations were taken in town and not at the more upland airport location. 1948-49 & 1949-50 were low snow, but very cold and snowy in parts of the northern Plains and northwest. I would point out, however, that 1950 was the coldest year overall for the U.S. since 1929, and 1951 was even colder, per NCEI. 1950-51 was very snowy in the Ohio Valley and Appalachians.

November 1950 had that historic triple phaser, I think it was most powerful triple phaser of them all (stronger than January 1977 or March 1993), anyone have a list of all the triple phasers that have affected the CONUS? (I know the Canadian Maritimes have many more of them and even stronger ones like the one that hit Nova Scotia in January 2004.)

 

[michsnowfreak]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wild was 1874-75 your coldest on record?

April 1875 was historically cold and snowy here, like January in April lol.

It was 2nd coldest, only 1903-04 was colder. However, it was the all-time coldest for avg min temp (10.2F). It was a brutally cold winter, and 1875 is the coldest year on record.

The unseasonable cold was so impressive all throughout 1875 that not only is it the coldest year on record at Detroit, but it is a full 1.5F COLDER than the 2nd coldest year on record. Though records began in 1870, there is unofficial data dating to the 1830s and 1875 is the coldest. And wouldnt you know, that a big warm spell ended the year, so the record high for Dec 31st is 65F....set in 1875. Just gotta love weather stats!

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It was 2nd coldest, only 1903-04 was colder. However, it was the all-time coldest for avg min temp (10.2F). It was a brutally cold winter, and 1875 is the coldest year on record.

The unseasonable cold was so impressive all throughout 1875 that not only is it the coldest year on record at Detroit, but it is a full 1.5F COLDER than the 2nd coldest year on record. Though records began in 1870, there is unofficial data dating to the 1830s and 1875 is the coldest. And wouldnt you know, that a big warm spell ended the year, so the record high for Dec 31st is 65F....set in 1875. Just gotta love weather stats!

it would have been an even colder year if that record high waited just one more day!

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I think people are still in denial mode here. The change from 2011-2013 era to the last 36 months or so has been on the order of .5C. The 1990s are about as cold globally compared to the present, as the 1800s were to the 1990s. It makes little sense to run a linear regression back to the 1800s, when there was a relatively stable climate [only comparatively modest increase] from 1880 to 1970. Not even getting into site changes and changes in protocol. A lot of river cities saw moves to suburban airports with elevation increases of 300 to 500 feet versus downtown. With that said, in many cases, going back further to 1960 or 1970 would, in the majority of cases, increase the decline, by including snowier years from the 1960s to early 1980s. My analysis actually starts with a few notoriously low snow winters, a fact that @LibertyBellsaid was "ironic."

I think you just like to call people names because it's all you've got in your life and it's the best you and your ilk can do. 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

I think you just like to call people names because it's all you've got in your life and it's the best you and your ilk can do. 

Did I call anyone names? Can anyone find where I called someone a name in this thread? I was called a "troll" but don't recall calling any one a name.