2025 Severe Weather General Discussion

[Kmlwx]

Still out in the long range...but the GFS would seem to suggest the doldrums may be coming to an end. CIPS is also starting to latch onto increased severe potential out beyond 200 hours. The 06z GFS run had decent parameters on SEVERAL days out in the long range.

[yoda]

On 5/8/2025 at 8:24 AM, Kmlwx said:

Still out in the long range...but the GFS would seem to suggest the doldrums may be coming to an end. CIPS is also starting to latch onto increased severe potential out beyond 200 hours. The 06z GFS run had decent parameters on SEVERAL days out in the long range.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025

   Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range guidance indicates that a generally amplified, split
   mid/upper flow will persist across the mid-latitude Pacific through
   North America next week.  It appears that this will include at least
   a couple of significant troughs digging inland of the U.S. Pacific
   Coast.  The first may already be in the process of developing
   eastward across the Intermountain West early in this period
   (Tuesday), before progressing across the Rockies, Great Plains and
   Mississippi Valley during the middle through latter portion of next
   week.  This may be followed by another significant trough digging
   inland of the Pacific coast by early next weekend.

   The lead trough will be relatively close on the heels of the
   remnants of an initially broad quasi-stationary/cut-off low, which
   may only slowly progress east of the Mississippi Valley through
   Atlantic Seaboard during the early to middle portion of next week. 
   Low-level moisture return, in the wake of this perturbation and
   ahead of the mid-level trough emerging from the West, may continue
   to be impacted across at least parts of the Great Plains into mid
   week.  Thereafter, there appears a general consensus that there will
   be a better coupling of large-scale forcing for ascent, aided by
   surface cyclogenesis, with a notable increase in low-level moisture
   and destabilization across the lower Missouri Valley into the Upper
   Midwest and lower Ohio Valley by late next Thursday into Thursday
   night.  In the presence of strong shear, it appears that this
   environment could become supportive of supercells and/or one or two
   organizing severe storm clusters.

   Machine learning output and other guidance suggests that potential
   for strong to severe thunderstorms could persist and potentially
   become more widespread across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic, and
   southern Great Plains, next Friday and Saturday.  However,
   uncertainties remain too large at this time to introduce greater
   than 15 percent severe probabilities.

   ..Kerr.. 05/10/2025