Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[WinstonSalemArlington]

December 30

[NorthHillsWx]

The December 28 system has trended from the Canadian maritimes to the mid Atlantic due to blocking on the GFS over the last 4 runs. Definitely some volatility with unresolved strength of blocking over eastern Canada 

[GaWx]

52 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The December 28 system has trended from the Canadian maritimes to the mid Atlantic due to blocking on the GFS over the last 4 runs. Definitely some volatility with unresolved strength of blocking over eastern Canada 

 Look at how much the EPS has cooled for the lows of Dec 30th in just 6 runs thanks to the pushback from the strengthening -NAO despite the Aleutian ridge not budging!
It has cooled this much from the Friday 12Z run, an amazing amount for an ensemble mean over such a short period:

- Roxboro, NC 12F from 38 to 26
- Charlotte 14F from 40 to 26
- CAE 14F from 43 to 29
- SAV 15F from 48 to 33
- ATL 18F from 45 to 27
- Chattanooga 19F from 41 to 22
- Nashville 19F from 42 to 23
- Birmingham 20F from 47 to 27
- Tupelo 19F from 48 to 29
- Chicago 13F from 30 to 17
- Tulsa 11F from 43 to 32

12Z 12/19 EPS:

 

0Z 12/22 EPS:

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 Look at how much the EPS has cooled for the lows of Dec 30th in just 6 runs thanks to the pushback from the strengthening -NAO despite the Aleutian ridge not budging!
It has cooled this much from the Friday 12Z run:

- Roxboro, NC 12F from 38 to 26
- Charlotte 14F from 40 to 26
- CAE 14F from 43 to 29
- SAV 15F from 48 to 33
- ATL 18F from 45 to 27
- Nashville 19F from 42 to 23
- Birmingham 20F from 47 to 27
- Tupelo 19F from 48 to 29
- Chicago 13F from 30 to 17
- Tulsa 11F from 43 to 32

12Z 12/19 EPS:

 

0Z 12/22 EPS:

I think this is what's most frustrating for me. We finally have a great Atlantic setup but the Pacific is screwing us from getting a snowy pattern. 

[NorthHillsWx]

9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I think this is what's most frustrating for me. We finally have a great Atlantic setup but the Pacific is screwing us from getting a snowy pattern. 

At least the torch and SER are muted with the -NAO but these systems flying in from the NW aren’t what anyone’s looking for 

[Met1985]

38 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Look at how much the EPS has cooled for the lows of Dec 30th in just 6 runs thanks to the pushback from the strengthening -NAO despite the Aleutian ridge not budging!
It has cooled this much from the Friday 12Z run, an amazing amount for an ensemble mean over such a short period:

- Roxboro, NC 12F from 38 to 26
- Charlotte 14F from 40 to 26
- CAE 14F from 43 to 29
- SAV 15F from 48 to 33
- ATL 18F from 45 to 27
- Chattanooga 19F from 41 to 22
- Nashville 19F from 42 to 23
- Birmingham 20F from 47 to 27
- Tupelo 19F from 48 to 29
- Chicago 13F from 30 to 17
- Tulsa 11F from 43 to 32

12Z 12/19 EPS:

 

0Z 12/22 EPS:

We've seen this all season long just about.  

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

We've seen this all season long just about.  

Not for this week 

[wncsnow]

I think the next really interesting time period is from Jan 7-12. If we can keep that -NAO we might have a real shot then. 

[Met1985]

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Not for this week 

Obviously not. We had a warm period before Thanksgiving.  We thought we'd torch right through Thanksgiving but no we had a very cold end to November and a cold start to December.  We've been well below average for the better part of 3 weeks. So yes we've seen this several times across the board where yes the operational models and the ensembles have performed very poorly in the middle and long range multiple times this season. 

[Met1985]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I think the next really interesting time period is from Jan 7-12. If we can keep that -NAO we might have a real shot then. 

I disagree.  This is just too far out there with the way the models have been performing this season for the most part.

[wncsnow]

Just now, Met1985 said:

I disagree.  This is just too far out there with the way the models have been performing this season for the most part.

So disregard models and ensembles unless it's a few days out?

[Met1985]

Just now, wncsnow said:

So disregard models and ensembles unless it's a few days out?

Im giving you my opinion in the way the models have performed in the long range this season. Honestly we could look decent,  torch,  or in the freezer.  We are just seeing a lot of volatility in the models. 

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

Im giving you my opinion in the way the models have performed in the long range this season. Honestly we could look decent,  torch,  or in the freezer.  We are just seeing a lot of volatility in the models. 

They haven't been that bad though. They called this warm spell way back in early December. 

[Met1985]

Just now, wncsnow said:

They haven't been that bad though. They called this warm spell way back in early December. 

I think they have been when trying to extend a warm spell. We've seen them wrong several times this season just as Larry pointed out about the EPS.

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I think they have been when trying to extend a warm spell. We've seen them wrong several times this season just as Larry pointed out about the EPS.

I think they have been about like they always have. Never perfect but a decent guide to use if you take a blended approach. The late December cold snap has been showing up for a few days now in varying degrees. Look at this run from Thursday night. 

[Met1985]

This would be a nice blast of cold after this week.

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[Met1985]

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I think they have been about like they always have. Never perfect but a decent guide to use if you take a blended approach. The late December cold snap has been showing up for a few days now in varying degrees. Look at this run from Thursday night. 

The pattern has been showing up being volatile especially this past week. Things have become more clear this weekend especially the recent runs of both the gfs and the EURO. We will agree to disagree.  We don't see eye to eye on multiple things anyways. 

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The pattern has been showing up being volatile especially this past week. Things have become more clear this weekend especially the recent runs of both the gfs and the EURO. We will agree to disagree.  We don't see eye to eye on multiple things anyways. 

And it's ok to disagree 

[Met1985]

Just now, wncsnow said:

And it's ok to disagree 

Yup. Lol ill be here all day.

[BooneWX]

Is the Pacific uncooperative though? If we keep trending towards blocking and an eastern trough, you're going to get a ridge out west even if it isn’t in a perfect position and a true +PNA look. The pacific jet will be sort of irrelevant because the only way you’re scoring anyways is to have an anchored high north of us, which will feed the cold. Point being, I’m not exactly fretting about Pacific air when we have a continental source to tap into. Another thing. If we keep getting blocking, that ridge is going west. It won’t be your quintessential +PNA look, but an Idaho/Montana ridge works here. Heck, a Seattle ridge tends to leave room for storms to cut. 

[wncsnow]

3 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Is the Pacific uncooperative though? If we keep trending towards blocking and an eastern trough, you're going to get a ridge out west even if it isn’t in a perfect position and a true +PNA look. The pacific jet will be sort of irrelevant because the only way you’re scoring anyways is to have an anchored high north of us, which will feed the cold. Point being, I’m not exactly fretting about Pacific air when we have a continental source to tap into. Another thing. If we keep getting blocking, that ridge is going west. It won’t be your quintessential +PNA look, but an Idaho/Montana ridge works here. Heck, a Seattle ridge tends to leave room for storms to cut. 

We have gotten decent snows with a -PNA. I will see what research I can find

[BooneWX]

I do agree that post-Jan 7 looks mighty tasty rn. That’s roughly when winter started in earnest last year. 

[NorthHillsWx]

The biggest impact of the - PNA if we actually keep blocking will be lack of STJ energy. We’ll be relying on something coming from the NW to dig and slow bc there won’t be enhancement or energy from the southern stream or a phase. That’s just the world we are in with the pacific this season. It can work for snow but the odds of a big coastal are muted without southern stream energy 

[BooneWX]

A lot of Baja lows in 12z. Wonder if we could kick one east. 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

Hard to dig the trough far enough westward in this set up. GFS ensembles did cave to EPS but it’s still not enough for our region. Need Nina to get beat down soon to have a shot. It has been taking it’s time warming up.


.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Im giving you my opinion in the way the models have performed in the long range this season. Honestly we could look decent,  torch,  or in the freezer.  We are just seeing a lot of volatility in the models. 

So true. I can’t recall models bouncing around so much for a prolonged period as they have this year 

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

So true. I can’t recall models bouncing around so much for a prolonged period as they have this year 

It was nice last year where everything just kept trending colder until verification 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Things could be so much worse. Denver is having its hottest December in recorded history, with a streak of nine straight days above 60 degrees. Christmas is forecasted to be in the 70s.

[BooneWX]

35 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The biggest impact of the - PNA if we actually keep blocking will be lack of STJ energy. We’ll be relying on something coming from the NW to dig and slow bc there won’t be enhancement or energy from the southern stream or a phase. That’s just the world we are in with the pacific this season. It can work for snow but the odds of a big coastal are muted without southern stream energy 

I agree but we’re not looking at what I’d call a true -PNA. A ridge centered over Montana can work all the same. It’s a -PNA on paper because it wouldn’t be centered right over the west coast and it’s not a particularly sharp ridge. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Happy New Year!