Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[WinstonSalemArlington]

December 30

[NorthHillsWx]

The December 28 system has trended from the Canadian maritimes to the mid Atlantic due to blocking on the GFS over the last 4 runs. Definitely some volatility with unresolved strength of blocking over eastern Canada 

[GaWx]

52 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The December 28 system has trended from the Canadian maritimes to the mid Atlantic due to blocking on the GFS over the last 4 runs. Definitely some volatility with unresolved strength of blocking over eastern Canada 

 Look at how much the EPS has cooled for the lows of Dec 30th in just 6 runs thanks to the pushback from the strengthening -NAO despite the Aleutian ridge not budging!
It has cooled this much from the Friday 12Z run, an amazing amount for an ensemble mean over such a short period:

- Roxboro, NC 12F from 38 to 26
- Charlotte 14F from 40 to 26
- CAE 14F from 43 to 29
- SAV 15F from 48 to 33
- ATL 18F from 45 to 27
- Chattanooga 19F from 41 to 22
- Nashville 19F from 42 to 23
- Birmingham 20F from 47 to 27
- Tupelo 19F from 48 to 29
- Chicago 13F from 30 to 17
- Tulsa 11F from 43 to 32

12Z 12/19 EPS:

 

0Z 12/22 EPS:

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 Look at how much the EPS has cooled for the lows of Dec 30th in just 6 runs thanks to the pushback from the strengthening -NAO despite the Aleutian ridge not budging!
It has cooled this much from the Friday 12Z run:

- Roxboro, NC 12F from 38 to 26
- Charlotte 14F from 40 to 26
- CAE 14F from 43 to 29
- SAV 15F from 48 to 33
- ATL 18F from 45 to 27
- Nashville 19F from 42 to 23
- Birmingham 20F from 47 to 27
- Tupelo 19F from 48 to 29
- Chicago 13F from 30 to 17
- Tulsa 11F from 43 to 32

12Z 12/19 EPS:

 

0Z 12/22 EPS:

I think this is what's most frustrating for me. We finally have a great Atlantic setup but the Pacific is screwing us from getting a snowy pattern. 

[NorthHillsWx]

9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I think this is what's most frustrating for me. We finally have a great Atlantic setup but the Pacific is screwing us from getting a snowy pattern. 

At least the torch and SER are muted with the -NAO but these systems flying in from the NW aren’t what anyone’s looking for 

[Met1985]

38 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Look at how much the EPS has cooled for the lows of Dec 30th in just 6 runs thanks to the pushback from the strengthening -NAO despite the Aleutian ridge not budging!
It has cooled this much from the Friday 12Z run, an amazing amount for an ensemble mean over such a short period:

- Roxboro, NC 12F from 38 to 26
- Charlotte 14F from 40 to 26
- CAE 14F from 43 to 29
- SAV 15F from 48 to 33
- ATL 18F from 45 to 27
- Chattanooga 19F from 41 to 22
- Nashville 19F from 42 to 23
- Birmingham 20F from 47 to 27
- Tupelo 19F from 48 to 29
- Chicago 13F from 30 to 17
- Tulsa 11F from 43 to 32

12Z 12/19 EPS:

 

0Z 12/22 EPS:

We've seen this all season long just about.  

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

We've seen this all season long just about.  

Not for this week 

[wncsnow]

I think the next really interesting time period is from Jan 7-12. If we can keep that -NAO we might have a real shot then. 

[Met1985]

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Not for this week 

Obviously not. We had a warm period before Thanksgiving.  We thought we'd torch right through Thanksgiving but no we had a very cold end to November and a cold start to December.  We've been well below average for the better part of 3 weeks. So yes we've seen this several times across the board where yes the operational models and the ensembles have performed very poorly in the middle and long range multiple times this season. 

[Met1985]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I think the next really interesting time period is from Jan 7-12. If we can keep that -NAO we might have a real shot then. 

I disagree.  This is just too far out there with the way the models have been performing this season for the most part.

[wncsnow]

Just now, Met1985 said:

I disagree.  This is just too far out there with the way the models have been performing this season for the most part.

So disregard models and ensembles unless it's a few days out?

[Met1985]

Just now, wncsnow said:

So disregard models and ensembles unless it's a few days out?

Im giving you my opinion in the way the models have performed in the long range this season. Honestly we could look decent,  torch,  or in the freezer.  We are just seeing a lot of volatility in the models. 

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

Im giving you my opinion in the way the models have performed in the long range this season. Honestly we could look decent,  torch,  or in the freezer.  We are just seeing a lot of volatility in the models. 

They haven't been that bad though. They called this warm spell way back in early December. 

[Met1985]

Just now, wncsnow said:

They haven't been that bad though. They called this warm spell way back in early December. 

I think they have been when trying to extend a warm spell. We've seen them wrong several times this season just as Larry pointed out about the EPS.