Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[BornAgain13]

0z Euro. Very similar to the AI

[wncsnow]

Stronger southern stream but weaker CAD high and our pesky SE Ridge is still fighting back enough to mess up the cold air transport

[wncsnow]

Thought this was interesting. Some mets think that Arctic air masses will modify even more this winter due to the Hudson Bay being almost ice free and having less ice than almost any other year ever

[Coach McGuirk]

I believe we will have a winter similar or better than last year.   Elizebeth city, NC receiving a half inch of snow in early November is foreshadowing and great Winter. 

[Coach McGuirk]

Lynchburg got up to 35 degrees, so much for my CAD theory. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Mid-month cold

[BornAgain13]

6z Euro and EPS continue to like the threat for Friday. Euro vs GFS again

[BooneWX]

Nam has the moisture….also has the HP scooting out too quickly

[wncsnow]

6 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Nam has the moisture….also has the HP scooting out too quickly

Yep this could be another cold rain for us and is trending that way for now..

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[NorthHillsWx]

ICON looks like Euro. Snow in northern half of NC and Virginia 

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS looks to be coming in colder

[wncsnow]

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS looks to be coming in colder

It was 90% cold rain

[olafminesaw]

We seem to be narrowing in on a higher likelihood of some light snowfall. Lots of details to be ironed out, with uncertainty about moisture and timing which opens the door for a modern moderate impact event (definitely less likely). Any chance for a higher potential coastal storm can probably be ruled out

[BooneWX]

Things we need to see in the pattern:

- a cold Alaska is not usually favorable for us. We need to continue trending towards a ridge popping there. 

- Pacific needs to be more cooperative in general (go figure). More jet ext but not too much. We’ve got to inject some better energy and force a sharper trough in the east. The northern stream parade wouldn’t be so bad if the shortwaves weren’t stopping in the Ohio valley and moving east. You aren’t getting a useful phase for our neck of the woods like that. 

- PV? Good or bad…? Idk. I think most would argue good but I don’t know if I want to see a complete split. For one, there’s no guarantee that cold spills on this side of the globe and 2, more times than not, it’s a suppression signal if it does.

- I agree with @wncsnow a relaxation and reload mid month is probably coming. I’ll admit that it’s more of a hunch for me than a given. The trend all summer and fall has been for the LR guidance to raise a false ridge and dump the cold out west, only to correct down to hour 0. I think there’s a reasonable chance with the MJO progression, the PV, and a potentially better looking Pacific that we may have wall to wall cold in Dec. Regardless, if it wants, I think it’s brief - maybe 4/5 days max and certainly no torch. 

- We all should be rooting to score now - New Years if we indeed get the PV split with phase 8. Any repeating of that pattern (TBD) is going to give you highs in the 30s and bone dry air in Jan/Feb. Just my 2 cents. 


.

[WNC_Fort]

Hoping we score something Friday or early next week. Think the rest of Dec is toast after that

[BornAgain13]

GFS says No to Friday but brings in the goods Sunday!  Big SnowStorm for Northern NC into VA

[BooneWX]

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

GFS says No to Friday but brings in the goods Sunday!  Big SnowStorm for Northern NC into VA

This one actually has legs imo. Southern slider, high in a decent position and the energy is digging more each run. For what it’s worth, this is the timeframe @griteaterloves.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[wncsnow]

UK is close for a nice hit for a lot of 40 north folks

[BornAgain13]

12z UK very aggressive with the Snow potential Friday. 

[wncsnow]

[BooneWX]

First Krispy Kreme light of the season 

[wncsnow]

I expect the Euro to show another nice scenario for NW NC and SW VA. That looks like the best spot to be for now

[BooneWX]

Fwiw, soundings on the GFS showed snow a lot further south for Friday than the surface depiction. 

[wncsnow]

Another thing to note is this is less than 70 hours from start time. 

[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Another thing to note is this is less than 70 hours from start time. 

Yep and I’ll be curious to see what the cams show. Could be a better wedge than the globals can get a handle on.

[BooneWX]

If the Ukie comes to fruition, Mount Airy would challenge Roxboro as the non-mountain snow capital of the region. While most starved, they almost hit double digits last year in that neck of the woods, with one snow being an eerily similar setup to Friday dropping half of that seasonal total. 

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

If the Ukie comes to fruition, Mount Airy would challenge Roxboro as the non-mountain snow capital of the region. While most starved, they almost hit double digits last year in that neck of the woods, with one snow being an eerily similar setup to Friday dropping half of that seasonal total. 

Yup. Where's  @BIG FROSTY

[WinstonSalemArlington]