2025 forecast contests -- enter for September 2025 contest (deadline 06z September 1st)

Rjay · August 1

DCA: +1.5

NYC: +1.7

BOS: +1.7

ORD: +1.8

ATL: +1.0

IAH: +1.0

DEN: +2.0

PHX: +2.0

SEA: +2.0

yoda · August 1

I'll try this this month if that's okay Roger

DCA: +1.4

NYC: +1.1

BOS: +0.9

ORD: +0.7

ATL: +0.9

IAH: +1.3

DEN: +1.1

PHX: +1.6

SEA: +1.8

Roger Smith · August 1

Welcome to Yoda, and just a general note, the updated scoring is finished, as a group I am fairly confident that was the highest scoring month we've had as a group but nobody quite made it past the record high scores from 2014 (808 for this group and 810 for Mallow who was then a regular participant). I found one error in scoring back in the June annual summary for wxdude64, the station scores were correct but the eastern total was 100 out (too high in table then posted) -- it didn't really affect the contest much as the score involved was still in almost the same rank after correction (Don S moved up one), but this has been edited into a correct format back there (now that error is edited out) and otherwise most of the ranks in the annual contest remained the same as last month, since everyone had quite similar scores in July. Tough crowd when you score 800 and can't move up more than a fraction of a rank! Even Persistence scored well at 752. Tom maintained his lead in the annual contest and expanded it slightly relative to the chase pack as he scored 780. I rode a high score out west to the monthly high of 800.

So if you're looking for the updated scoring, it's quite easy to find, just scroll back on the previous page (if you're seeing this on page six maybe some have a different pagination), and before all the August forecasts you'll find the updated scoring. Before the updated scoring is the anomaly report for the month and that contains an updated seasonal max report. Contest scoring for that won't take place until I feel like we've passed ther peak of summer heat which in some recent years was early September. In general despite the high anomalies in central regions, ORD and IAH are not running above the consensus of our forecasts, most other places are near those or above.

We''ll see if this trend to high scoring continues on into August. A table of August forecasts will follow on.

We would have had several record breaking scores except for ATL being quite a bit warmer than our range of forecasts, 72 was high score there. Some of the anomalies puzzle me at times, for example, NYC was reporting +1.9 on the 30th, had -1 on the 31st and finished +2.0. That must indicate a bit of a jog in running means for 1-30 July and 1-31 July, or it's an error one way or the other. Same thing can be said for SEA which was at +1.0 on 30th, had a +2 for the 31st and finished +0.8. As it turns out, a lot of peoples' scores were differentially impacted by those two oddities so it made no difference to totals but if you had gone below +2.0 for NYC and above +1.0 for SEA you lost eight points on those two. I didn't notice any other strange ones but I have seen it happen in previous months too. Could just be that the 30-year data base had a lot of cool days on 31st in NYC and warm ones in SEA on July 31.

so_whats_happening · August 2

Totally forgot

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+1 +.8 +1 +.9 +.6 +.5 +1.5 +1.8 +1.6

Roger Smith · August 4

Table of forecasts for August 2025

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA

hudsonvalley21 __________ +1.8 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ___+1.3 _ +2.2 _ +1.5 ___+1.3 _ +1.2 _ +1.0

wxallannj ________________ +1.8 _ +1.9 _ +2.0 __ +2.2 _ +1.2 _ +2.0 __ +2.8 _+2.8 _ +0.5

RJay ____________________ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 ___ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0

Roger Smith _____________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 __ +3.3 _ +2.8 _+3.2

Yoda _____________________+1.4 __+1.1 __+0.9 __ +0.7 _+0.9 _+1.3 ___ +1.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.8

wxdude64 _______________+1.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 ___+1.1 __+0.6 _ +0.4 __ +0.9 _ +2.1 _ +1.9

____ Consensus _________ +1.1 __+1.1 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _+0.9 _ +1.1 ___ +1.4 _ +1.9 _ +1.7

Scotty Lightning _________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +0.5

so_whats_happening ____ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _ +0.6 _+0.5 __ +1.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.6

Tom ______________________+0.6 _+0.5 _ +0.4 __ +0.2 _ +0.9 _+1.1 ___ +1.2 _ +1.3 _+1.4

DonSutherland1 __________+0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.6 __ +0.4 _+0.2 _+0.2 __ +1.6 _+2.1 _ +2.2

StormchaserChuck1 _____ +0.2 _ +0.4 _ +0.8 __ +0.4 _+0.1 _ +0.2 __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.3

____ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

RodneyS _________________ -1.4 _ +0.3 _ -0.6 __ +0.9 _ -1.5 _ +0.1 ___ +1.8 _ +1.5 _ +1.1

===============

____ Persistence __________ +1.4 _+2.0 _+1.9 __ +2.1 _ +3.4 _ +1.2 ____ 0.0 _ +1.4 _ +0.8

______________________________________________________

Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded (Persistence is not included) ... Normal is coldest for six locations, NYC, ORD, IAH, DEN, PHX and SEA.

Roger Smith · August 15

A report on anomalies in August 2025 ...

_______________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

______ (anom 1-14) ____________ -3.6 _ -1.1 _ -1.2 ___ +2.0 _-3.5 _+1.6 __ +1.8 _+6.3 _+0.5

15 _ (p anom 1-31 Aug) ________ -1.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.5 ___+2.0 _ -1.5 _+0.5 __ +2.0 _+4.0 _+1.5

27 _ (p anom 1-31 Aug) ________-2.5 _ -1.5 _ -1.5 ____ 0.0 _ -1.5 _ +1.5 __ +2.0 _ +4.0 _+2.0

___ final anomalies ____________-3.6 _ -2.3 _ -2.1 ____-0.5 _ -2.0 _ +1.5 __ +0.9 _ +3.8 _+1.4

(15th) _ After quite a cool start to August in the east, recent warmth has begun to erode large negative anomalies. The central and western states have been quite warm, especially the desert southwest. This pattern looks set to continue with oscillating near average conditions in the east, sustained warmth out west although shifting more to the north later.

(27th) _ Adjusted projected end of month anomalies. Scoring will also be adjusted.

(31st-1st) _ Final anomalies are either confirmed or estimated from daily 31st, scoring will be adjusted by mid-day 1st (not going very fast on this one) ...

SEASONAL MAX to date ________ 99 _ 99 _102 ____ 95 _ 100 _ 101 ___ 100 _ 118 __ 94

Roger Smith · August 17

Final Scoring for August 2025

Scoring is based on latest posted anomalies in previous post. These scores are updated whenever the anomalies are updated. Scores with a symboi ^ are based on max 60 after all raw scores fell below 60. Due to different sets of large and small gaps in forecast values, fairest method is to add same amount to each score after high score becomes 60. For DCA, highest raw score was 56. For NYC, high raw score was 48, so twelve points were added to all raw scores. High score for BOS, ORD and ATL were above 60 so all scores for these are raw scores.

All scores are final except IAH which may be delayed as climate summary for 31st is not complete.

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS

RodneyS _________________60^_ 60^_ 70 __ 190 __ 72 _ 90 _72 __ 234 _ 424 __ 82 _ 54 _ 94 __ 230 ____ 654

Tom ______________________20^_ 56^_ 50 __ 126 __ 86 _ 42 _ 92 __ 220 _ 346 __ 94 _ 50 _100 __ 244 ____ 590

DonSutherland1 __________26^_ 56^_ 46 __ 128 __ 82 _ 56 _ 74 __ 212 _ 340 __ 86 _ 66 _ 84 __ 236 ____ 576

StormchaserChuck1 _____ 28^_ 58^_ 42 __ 128 __ 82 _ 58 _ 74 __ 214 _ 342 __ 78 _ 70 _ 82 __ 230 ____ 572

____ Normal ______________32^_ 66^_ 58 __ 156 __ 90 _ 60 _ 70 __ 220 _ 376 __ 82 _ 24 _ 72 __ 178 ____ 554

Yoda _____________________04^_ 44^_ 40 __ 088 __ 76 _ 42 _ 96 __ 214 _ 302 __ 96 _ 56 _ 92 __ 244 ____ 546

so_whats_happening ____ 12^_ 50^_ 38 __ 100 __ 72 _ 48 _ 80 __ 200 _ 300 __ 88 _ 60 _ 96 __ 244 ____ 544

____ Consensus _________10^_ 44^_ 38 __ 092 __ 72 _ 42 _ 92 __ 206 _ 298 __ 90 _ 62 _ 94 __ 246 ____ 544

Scotty Lightning _________ 12^_ 46^_ 48 __ 106 __ 70 _ 30 _ 90 __ 190 _ 296 __ 92 _ 54 _ 82 __ 228 ____ 524

wxdude64 _______________08^_ 34^_ 22 __ 064 __ 68 _ 48 _ 78 __ 194 _ 258 __100 _ 66 _ 90 __ 256 ____ 514

RJay _____________________02^_ 32^_ 24 __ 058 __ 54 _ 40 _ 90 __ 184 _ 242 __ 78 _ 64 _ 88 __ 230 ____ 472

hudsonvalley21 __________ 00^_ 24^_ 20 __ 044 __ 64 _ 16 _100 __ 180 _ 224 __ 92 _ 48 _ 92 __ 232 ____ 456

wxallannj ________________ 00^_ 28^_ 18 __ 046 __ 46 _ 36 _ 90 __ 172 _ 218 __ 62 _ 80 _ 82 __ 224 ____ 442

Roger Smith _____________ 02^_ 36^_ 22 __ 060 __ 50 _ 10 _ 74 __ 134 _ 194 __ 52 _ 80 _ 64 __ 196 ____ 390

===============

____ Persistence __________ 04^_ 26^_ 20 __ 050 __ 48 _ 00 _ 94 __ 142 _ 192 __ 82 _ 52 _ 88 __ 222 ____ 414

______________

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT

DCA (-3.6), NYC (-2.3), BOS (-2.1), ATL (-2.0) __ All are wins for RodneyS with lowest forecasts, Normal also wins for NYC.

ORD (+0.5) is a win for Tom with lowest forecast (+0.2) and also a win for Normal.

DEN (+0.9) is a win for wxdude64 (+0.9) with second lowest forecast, and a loss for Scotty Lightning (+0.5).

PHX (+3.8) is a win for tied highest forecasts of wxallannj and Roger Smith (+2.8).

IAH and SEA are not extreme forecast qualifiers.

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NOTE: Annual scoring update will follow. It will be in the post which currently contains the seasonal max scoring data and that will move further down the page to the intro to September forecast post.

IAH scoring will be finalized in an edited version of this post. I don't expect any large changes, anomaly was +1.8 to 30th, 31st looked a bit below average but wasn't finalized, so 1.5 estimated for final anomaly will probably be close if not exact.

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(actual forecasts)