Rjay Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 DCA: +1.5 NYC: +1.7 BOS: +1.7 ORD: +1.8 ATL: +1.0 IAH: +1.0 DEN: +2.0 PHX: +2.0 SEA: +2.0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 I'll try this this month if that's okay Roger DCA: +1.4 NYC: +1.1 BOS: +0.9 ORD: +0.7 ATL: +0.9 IAH: +1.3 DEN: +1.1 PHX: +1.6 SEA: +1.8 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 1 Author Share Posted August 1 Welcome to Yoda, and just a general note, the updated scoring is finished, as a group I am fairly confident that was the highest scoring month we've had as a group but nobody quite made it past the record high scores from 2014 (808 for this group and 810 for Mallow who was then a regular participant). I found one error in scoring back in the June annual summary for wxdude64, the station scores were correct but the eastern total was 100 out (too high in table then posted) -- it didn't really affect the contest much as the score involved was still in almost the same rank after correction (Don S moved up one), but this has been edited into a correct format back there (now that error is edited out) and otherwise most of the ranks in the annual contest remained the same as last month, since everyone had quite similar scores in July. Tough crowd when you score 800 and can't move up more than a fraction of a rank! Even Persistence scored well at 752. Tom maintained his lead in the annual contest and expanded it slightly relative to the chase pack as he scored 780. I rode a high score out west to the monthly high of 800. So if you're looking for the updated scoring, it's quite easy to find, just scroll back on the previous page (if you're seeing this on page six maybe some have a different pagination), and before all the August forecasts you'll find the updated scoring. Before the updated scoring is the anomaly report for the month and that contains an updated seasonal max report. Contest scoring for that won't take place until I feel like we've passed ther peak of summer heat which in some recent years was early September. In general despite the high anomalies in central regions, ORD and IAH are not running above the consensus of our forecasts, most other places are near those or above. We''ll see if this trend to high scoring continues on into August. A table of August forecasts will follow on. We would have had several record breaking scores except for ATL being quite a bit warmer than our range of forecasts, 72 was high score there. Some of the anomalies puzzle me at times, for example, NYC was reporting +1.9 on the 30th, had -1 on the 31st and finished +2.0. That must indicate a bit of a jog in running means for 1-30 July and 1-31 July, or it's an error one way or the other. Same thing can be said for SEA which was at +1.0 on 30th, had a +2 for the 31st and finished +0.8. As it turns out, a lot of peoples' scores were differentially impacted by those two oddities so it made no difference to totals but if you had gone below +2.0 for NYC and above +1.0 for SEA you lost eight points on those two. I didn't notice any other strange ones but I have seen it happen in previous months too. Could just be that the 30-year data base had a lot of cool days on 31st in NYC and warm ones in SEA on July 31. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 Totally forgot DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1 +.8 +1 +.9 +.6 +.5 +1.5 +1.8 +1.6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 4 Author Share Posted August 4 Table of forecasts for August 2025 FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA hudsonvalley21 __________ +1.8 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ___+1.3 _ +2.2 _ +1.5 ___+1.3 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 wxallannj ________________ +1.8 _ +1.9 _ +2.0 __ +2.2 _ +1.2 _ +2.0 __ +2.8 _+2.8 _ +0.5 RJay ____________________ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 ___ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 Roger Smith _____________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 __ +3.3 _ +2.8 _+3.2 Yoda _____________________+1.4 __+1.1 __+0.9 __ +0.7 _+0.9 _+1.3 ___ +1.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 wxdude64 _______________+1.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 ___+1.1 __+0.6 _ +0.4 __ +0.9 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ____ Consensus _________ +1.1 __+1.1 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _+0.9 _ +1.1 ___ +1.4 _ +1.9 _ +1.7 Scotty Lightning _________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +0.5 so_whats_happening ____ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _ +0.6 _+0.5 __ +1.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.6 Tom ______________________+0.6 _+0.5 _ +0.4 __ +0.2 _ +0.9 _+1.1 ___ +1.2 _ +1.3 _+1.4 DonSutherland1 __________+0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.6 __ +0.4 _+0.2 _+0.2 __ +1.6 _+2.1 _ +2.2 StormchaserChuck1 _____ +0.2 _ +0.4 _ +0.8 __ +0.4 _+0.1 _ +0.2 __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.3 ____ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS _________________ -1.4 _ +0.3 _ -0.6 __ +0.9 _ -1.5 _ +0.1 ___ +1.8 _ +1.5 _ +1.1 =============== ____ Persistence __________ +1.4 _+2.0 _+1.9 __ +2.1 _ +3.4 _ +1.2 ____ 0.0 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 ______________________________________________________ Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded (Persistence is not included) ... Normal is coldest for six locations, NYC, ORD, IAH, DEN, PHX and SEA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 15 Author Share Posted August 15 A report on anomalies in August 2025 ... _______________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ______ (anom 1-14) ____________ -3.6 _ -1.1 _ -1.2 ___ +2.0 _-3.5 _+1.6 __ +1.8 _+6.3 _+0.5 15 _ (p anom 1-31 Aug) ________ -1.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.5 ___+2.0 _ -1.5 _+0.5 __ +2.0 _+4.0 _+1.5 27 _ (p anom 1-31 Aug) ________-2.5 _ -1.5 _ -1.5 ____ 0.0 _ -1.5 _ +1.5 __ +2.0 _ +4.0 _+2.0 ___ final anomalies ____________-3.6 _ -2.3 _ -2.1 ____-0.5 _ -2.0 _ +1.5 __ +0.9 _ +3.8 _+1.4 (15th) _ After quite a cool start to August in the east, recent warmth has begun to erode large negative anomalies. The central and western states have been quite warm, especially the desert southwest. This pattern looks set to continue with oscillating near average conditions in the east, sustained warmth out west although shifting more to the north later. (27th) _ Adjusted projected end of month anomalies. Scoring will also be adjusted. (31st-1st) _ Final anomalies are either confirmed or estimated from daily 31st, scoring will be adjusted by mid-day 1st (not going very fast on this one) ... SEASONAL MAX to date ________ 99 _ 99 _102 ____ 95 _ 100 _ 101 ___ 100 _ 118 __ 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 17 Author Share Posted August 17 Final Scoring for August 2025 Scoring is based on latest posted anomalies in previous post. These scores are updated whenever the anomalies are updated. Scores with a symboi ^ are based on max 60 after all raw scores fell below 60. Due to different sets of large and small gaps in forecast values, fairest method is to add same amount to each score after high score becomes 60. For DCA, highest raw score was 56. For NYC, high raw score was 48, so twelve points were added to all raw scores. High score for BOS, ORD and ATL were above 60 so all scores for these are raw scores. All scores are final except IAH which may be delayed as climate summary for 31st is not complete. FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS RodneyS _________________60^_ 60^_ 70 __ 190 __ 72 _ 90 _72 __ 234 _ 424 __ 82 _ 54 _ 94 __ 230 ____ 654 DonSutherland1 __________26^_ 56^_ 46 __ 128 __ 82 _ 56 _ 74 __ 212 _ 340 __ 86 _ 66 _ 84 __ 236 ____ 576 StormchaserChuck1 _____ 28^_ 58^_ 42 __ 128 __ 82 _ 58 _ 74 __ 214 _ 342 __ 78 _ 70 _ 82 __ 230 ____ 572 ____ Normal ______________32^_ 66^_ 58 __ 156 __ 90 _ 60 _ 70 __ 220 _ 376 __ 82 _ 24 _ 72 __ 178 ____ 554 Yoda _____________________04^_ 44^_ 40 __ 088 __ 76 _ 42 _ 96 __ 214 _ 302 __ 96 _ 56 _ 92 __ 244 ____ 546 so_whats_happening ____ 12^_ 50^_ 38 __ 100 __ 72 _ 48 _ 80 __ 200 _ 300 __ 88 _ 60 _ 96 __ 244 ____ 544 ____ Consensus _________10^_ 44^_ 38 __ 092 __ 72 _ 42 _ 92 __ 206 _ 298 __ 90 _ 62 _ 94 __ 246 ____ 544 Tom ______________________20^_ 56^_ 50 __ 126 __ 86 _ 42 _ 92 __ 220 _ 346 __ 94 _ 50 _100 __ 194 ____ 540 Scotty Lightning _________ 12^_ 46^_ 48 __ 106 __ 70 _ 30 _ 90 __ 190 _ 296 __ 92 _ 54 _ 82 __ 228 ____ 524 wxdude64 _______________08^_ 34^_ 22 __ 064 __ 68 _ 48 _ 78 __ 194 _ 258 __100 _ 66 _ 90 __ 256 ____ 514 RJay _____________________02^_ 32^_ 24 __ 058 __ 54 _ 40 _ 90 __ 184 _ 242 __ 78 _ 64 _ 88 __ 230 ____ 472 hudsonvalley21 __________ 00^_ 24^_ 20 __ 044 __ 64 _ 16 _100 __ 180 _ 224 __ 92 _ 48 _ 92 __ 232 ____ 456 wxallannj ________________ 00^_ 28^_ 18 __ 046 __ 46 _ 36 _ 90 __ 172 _ 218 __ 62 _ 80 _ 82 __ 224 ____ 442 Roger Smith _____________ 02^_ 36^_ 22 __ 060 __ 50 _ 10 _ 74 __ 134 _ 194 __ 52 _ 80 _ 64 __ 196 ____ 390 =============== ____ Persistence __________ 04^_ 26^_ 20 __ 050 __ 48 _ 00 _ 94 __ 142 _ 192 __ 82 _ 52 _ 88 __ 184 ____ 378 ______________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT DCA (-3.6), NYC (-2.3), BOS (-2.1), ATL (-2.0) __ All are wins for RodneyS with lowest forecasts, Normal also wins for NYC. ORD (+0.5) is a win for Tom with lowest forecast (+0.2) and also a win for Normal. DEN (+0.9) is a win for wxdude64 (+0.9) with second lowest forecast, and a loss for Scotty Lightning (+0.5). PHX (+3.8) is a win for tied highest forecasts of wxallannj and Roger Smith (+2.8). IAH and SEA are not extreme forecast qualifiers. ======================================== NOTE: Annual scoring update will follow. It will be in the post which currently contains the seasonal max scoring data and that will move further down the page to the intro to September forecast post. IAH scoring will be finalized in an edited version of this post. I don't expect any large changes, anomaly was +1.8 to 30th, 31st looked a bit below average but wasn't finalized, so 1.5 estimated for final anomaly will probably be close if not exact. ----------------------------- (actual forecasts) FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA hudsonvalley21 __________ +1.8 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ___+1.3 _ +2.2 _ +1.5 ___+1.3 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 wxallannj ________________ +1.8 _ +1.9 _ +2.0 __ +2.2 _ +1.2 _ +2.0 __ +2.8 _+2.8 _ +0.5 RJay ____________________ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 ___ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 Roger Smith _____________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 __ +3.3 _ +2.8 _+3.2 Yoda _____________________+1.4 __+1.1 __+0.9 __ +0.7 _+0.9 _+1.3 ___ +1.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 wxdude64 _______________+1.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 ___+1.1 __+0.6 _ +0.4 __ +0.9 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ____ Consensus _________ +1.1 __+1.1 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _+0.9 _ +1.1 ___ +1.4 _ +1.9 _ +1.7 Scotty Lightning _________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +0.5 so_whats_happening ____ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _ +0.6 _+0.5 __ +1.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.6 Tom ______________________+0.6 _+0.5 _ +0.4 __ +0.2 _ +0.9 _+1.1 ___ +1.2 _ +1.3 _+1.4 DonSutherland1 __________+0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.6 __ +0.4 _+0.2 _+0.2 __ +1.6 _+2.1 _ +2.2 StormchaserChuck1 _____ +0.2 _ +0.4 _ +0.8 __ +0.4 _+0.1 _ +0.2 __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.3 ____ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS _________________ -1.4 _ +0.3 _ -0.6 __ +0.9 _ -1.5 _ +0.1 ___ +1.8 _ +1.5 _ +1.1 =============== ____ Persistence __________ +1.4 _+2.0 _+1.9 __ +2.1 _ +3.4 _ +1.2 ____ 0.0 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 ______________ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 17 Author Share Posted August 17 Current scoring for Seasonal Max contest 2025 TABLE of ERRORS to date _ _ _ _ errors in italics can only increase (forecasts lower than actual or equal) FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS _ ORD_ATL_IAH _ DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTAL Scotty Lightning ________ 04 _ 01 _ 04 ____ 06 _ 03 _ 05 ___ 00 _ 03 _ 02 _____ 28 Roger Smith _____________03 _ 01 _ 02 ____ 06 _ 02 _ 06 ____07 _ 02 _ 05 _____ 34 Tom _____________________02 _ 00 _ 04 ____ 07 _ 03 _ 04 ___ 01 _ 00 _ 02 _____ 23 hudsonvalley21 __________02 _ 01 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _ 00 ___ 00 _ 05 _ 03 _____ 22 so_whats_happening ____02 _ 02 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _ 04 ___ 04 _ 00 _ 01 _____ 24 ___ Consensus __________02 _ 01 _ 04 ____05 _ 01 _ 04 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 21 wxdude64 _______________01 _ 00 _ 04 ____ 04 _ 01 _ 05 ___ 04 _ 00 _ 02 _____ 21 DonSutherland1 _________ 01 _ 01 _ 05 ____ 03 _ 02 _ 03 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 ______ 19 RJay _____________________01 _ 02 _ 03 ____ 03 _ 00 _ 04 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 17 wxallannj ________________ 01 _ 03 _ 07 ____ 00 _ 02 _ 00 ___ 04 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 19 ... will be adjusted whenever seasonal max change at locations ... ... BOS can no longer affect contest standings (all forecasts already passed) (forecasts) Table of forecasts for Seasonal Max 2025 FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning ________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 ____ 101 _ 103 _ 106 ___ 100 _ 121 __ 92 Roger Smith _____________ 102 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 107 ____107 _ 120 __ 99 Tom _____________________ 101 __ 99 __ 98 ___ 102 _ 103 _ 105 ___ 101 _ 118 __ 96 hudsonvalley21 _________ 101 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 123 __ 97 so_whats_happening ____ 101 __ 97 __ 97 ____ 100 __ 99 _ 105 ___104 _ 118 __ 93 ___ Consensus __________101 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95 wxdude64 ______________ 100 __ 99 __ 98 _____99 _ 101 _ 106 ___ 104 _ 118 __ 96 DonSutherland1 _________ 100 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 98 __ 98 _ 104 ___ 102 _ 117 __ 95 RJay _____________________100 __ 97 __ 99 _____ 98 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95 wxallannj _________________98 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 95 __ 98 _ 101 ___ 104 _ 119 __ 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted August 25 Share Posted August 25 Wow great forecast Rodney S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 25 Author Share Posted August 25 Enter your September forecasts below ... this post will eventually be edited, the seasonal max info will move here and that post will change to updated annual scoring which so far has not been added to preliminary August scores three posts back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted Thursday at 09:35 AM Share Posted Thursday at 09:35 AM September DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.5 0.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted Friday at 09:16 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:16 PM missed August but remembered this time. DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -1.9 - 2.1 -1.8 -2.3 -0.5 -.4 1.0 1.8 .4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted Saturday at 01:17 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:17 AM DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 +0.5 +0.2 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxallannj Posted yesterday at 08:24 AM Share Posted yesterday at 08:24 AM DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.8 +0.2 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.8 1.8 1.7 3.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.9 -1.2 -1.1 -1.5 -0.8 1.1 1.5 0.6 1.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago DCA: +0.3 NYC: -0.3 BOS: -0.6 ORD: +0.4 ATL: +0.9 IAH: +1.0 DEN: +1.3 PHX: +1.4 SEA: +2.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago On 8/25/2025 at 7:00 AM, so_whats_happening said: Wow great forecast Rodney S Thanks, although I still did not foresee how cool DCA would actually be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -2.3 -0.9 -0.8 -2.2 -2.3 0.9 0.3 0.5 1.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago DCA: -2.5 NYC: -1.6 BOS: -0.9 ORD: -2.6 ATL: -0.8 IAH: +05 DEN: -0.6 PHX: +0.7 SEA: +1.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago DCA: -2.6 NYC: -2.0 BOS: -1.6 ORD: -3.5 ATL: -0.8 IAH: -0.1 DEN: +0.5 PHX: +0.4 SEA: +3.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted 6 hours ago Author Share Posted 6 hours ago I sort of expect a mid-month reversal from west/warm east/cool to the opposite, but perhaps the west will hold on to warmth anyway, going to go with 1.0 _ 1.0 _ 1.0 _ 1.5 _ 1.5 _ 1.5 _ 2.0 _ 2.0 _ 2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago A lot of disparity in the forecasts this month. Even the CPC's outlook released today looks crazy based on how the 1st half of the month will likely turn out (especially in the NW). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted 12 minutes ago Share Posted 12 minutes ago DCA: +0.1 NYC: +0.1 BOS: +0.1 ORD: +0.5 ATL: 0.0 IAH: +1.1 DEN: +2.0 PHX: +2.0 SEA: +2.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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