2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[BarryStantonGBP]

Happy birthday Kat

[GaWx]

 I count 8 of 30 (27%) of 12Z GFS ensemble members landfalling on the Conus from TX to ME within 8/27-9. GEFS suggests the MJO will most likely then be in phase 5, a rather active phase for Conus though not as active as phases 2 and 8. This is keeping me with a moderate concern for now:

 But the 12Z Euro like the 0Z has no TC from this. Also, it isn’t on the 12Z CMC. So, we’ll see. I already noted the 12Z UKMET with it.

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

29 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I count 8 of 30 (27%) of 12Z GFS ensemble members landfalling on the Conus from TX to ME within 8/27-9. GEFS suggests the MJO will most likely then be in phase 5, a rather active phase for Conus though not as active as phases 2 and 8. This is keeping me with a moderate concern for now:

 But the 12Z Euro like the 0Z has no TC from this. Also, it isn’t on the 12Z CMC. So, we’ll see. I already noted the 12Z UKMET with it.

 

What does the gefs say for September in terms of the mjo

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

What does the gefs say for September in terms of the mjo

It goes out only to Aug 29th, when it is in phase 5.

[BarryStantonGBP]

22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

It goes out only to Aug 29th, when it is in phase 5.

Any extrapolations?

[BarryStantonGBP]

On 8/14/2025 at 3:58 PM, BarryStantonGBP said:

DEEPMINDS UPDATE:

Erin expected to peak as a Cat 3-4, safe recurve for the CONUS but Bermuda needs to watch out

"Fernand" remaining a weak TS into TX (98L) and could be a category 1

"Gabrielle" becoming an OTS CV recurver (major)

"Humberto" forms in the WCAR and vomits in the Gulf (major landfall)

 

Aight never mind it’s Fernand and Gabrielle now with wave 2 coming first or what because 98L took an L

I gotta Check back 

[GaWx]

 Regarding the followup to Erin that GEFS remains pretty active with, the 12Z Euro ensemble is much quieter for the same time:

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Regarding the followup to Erin that GEFS remains pretty active with, the 12Z Euro ensemble is much quieter for the same time:

Yeah, zero concern in the long range from me right now. As we saw with Erin, these long range model runs aren’t good for much..

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

54 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, zero concern in the long range from me right now. As we saw with Erin, these long range model runs aren’t good for much..

Heading into peak with above normal water temps in all but the far east MDR anything is possible. 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Heading into peak with above normal water temps in all but the far east MDR anything is possible. 

I’ve been sold all year on the SW Atlantic being the seasonal hot spot. Erin was the first real test and we’re seeing how that’s likely to go…

This won’t be the last time the east coast is watching a major imo, but waves actually have to get to that part of the basin first. 

[GaWx]

0Z UK is similar to the 12Z with a TS N of the Leewards moving WNW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.6N 56.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2025 132 15.6N 56.6W 1009 26
0000UTC 22.08.2025 144 16.3N 58.8W 1007 32
1200UTC 22.08.2025 156 18.1N 60.9W 1006 37
0000UTC 23.08.2025 168 19.4N 63.3W 1005 38

[BarryStantonGBP]

OI LAD WE GOT OUR FIRST MAJOR

[GaWx]

1. 2024 (161 ACE) didn’t get 2nd major til late Sep.

2. 2023 (146) didn’t have 1st MH til 8/20.

3. 2021 (146) 1st MH 8/20.

4. 2020 (180) 8/26

5. 2019 (132) 8/30

6. 2018 (133) 9/10

7. 2017 (225) 8/25

8. 2016 (141) 8/30

———

 2025 got 1st MH on 8/16. Seasons with 1st MH by 8/16: 2024, 2008, 2005, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1995…only 7 of last 30 (23%).

[BarryStantonGBP]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. 2024 (161 ACE) didn’t get 2nd major til late Sep.

2. 2023 (146) didn’t have 1st MH til 8/20.

3. 2021 (146) 1st MH 8/20.

4. 2020 (180) 8/26

5. 2019 (132) 8/30

6. 2018 (133) 9/10

7. 2017 (225) 8/25

8. 2016 (141) 8/30

———

 2025 got 1st MH on 8/16. Seasons with 1st MH by 8/16: 2024, 2008, 2005, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1995…only 7 of last 30 (23%).

OI THE LASS IS C5 NOW

[WxWatcher007]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. 2024 (161 ACE) didn’t get 2nd major til late Sep.

2. 2023 (146) didn’t have 1st MH til 8/20.

3. 2021 (146) 1st MH 8/20.

4. 2020 (180) 8/26

5. 2019 (132) 8/30

6. 2018 (133) 9/10

7. 2017 (225) 8/25

8. 2016 (141) 8/30

———

 2025 got 1st MH on 8/16. Seasons with 1st MH by 8/16: 2024, 2008, 2005, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1995…only 7 of last 30 (23%).

Wow