BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 05:48 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:48 PM Happy birthday Kat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 06:22 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:22 PM I count 8 of 30 (27%) of 12Z GFS ensemble members landfalling on the Conus from TX to ME within 8/27-9. GEFS suggests the MJO will most likely then be in phase 5, a rather active phase for Conus though not as active as phases 2 and 8. This is keeping me with a moderate concern for now: But the 12Z Euro like the 0Z has no TC from this. Also, it isn’t on the 12Z CMC. So, we’ll see. I already noted the 12Z UKMET with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 06:52 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 06:52 PM 29 minutes ago, GaWx said: I count 8 of 30 (27%) of 12Z GFS ensemble members landfalling on the Conus from TX to ME within 8/27-9. GEFS suggests the MJO will most likely then be in phase 5, a rather active phase for Conus though not as active as phases 2 and 8. This is keeping me with a moderate concern for now: But the 12Z Euro like the 0Z has no TC from this. Also, it isn’t on the 12Z CMC. So, we’ll see. I already noted the 12Z UKMET with it. What does the gefs say for September in terms of the mjo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 06:54 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:54 PM 1 minute ago, BarryStantonGBP said: What does the gefs say for September in terms of the mjo It goes out only to Aug 29th, when it is in phase 5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 07:16 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 07:16 PM 22 minutes ago, GaWx said: It goes out only to Aug 29th, when it is in phase 5. Any extrapolations? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 07:24 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 07:24 PM On 8/14/2025 at 3:58 PM, BarryStantonGBP said: DEEPMINDS UPDATE: Erin expected to peak as a Cat 3-4, safe recurve for the CONUS but Bermuda needs to watch out "Fernand" remaining a weak TS into TX (98L) and could be a category 1 "Gabrielle" becoming an OTS CV recurver (major) "Humberto" forms in the WCAR and vomits in the Gulf (major landfall) Aight never mind it’s Fernand and Gabrielle now with wave 2 coming first or what because 98L took an L I gotta Check back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 07:32 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:32 PM Regarding the followup to Erin that GEFS remains pretty active with, the 12Z Euro ensemble is much quieter for the same time: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Friday at 10:07 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:07 PM 2 hours ago, GaWx said: Regarding the followup to Erin that GEFS remains pretty active with, the 12Z Euro ensemble is much quieter for the same time: Yeah, zero concern in the long range from me right now. As we saw with Erin, these long range model runs aren’t good for much.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted Friday at 11:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:03 PM 54 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, zero concern in the long range from me right now. As we saw with Erin, these long range model runs aren’t good for much.. Heading into peak with above normal water temps in all but the far east MDR anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Friday at 11:06 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:06 PM Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Heading into peak with above normal water temps in all but the far east MDR anything is possible. I’ve been sold all year on the SW Atlantic being the seasonal hot spot. Erin was the first real test and we’re seeing how that’s likely to go… This won’t be the last time the east coast is watching a major imo, but waves actually have to get to that part of the basin first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 0Z UK is similar to the 12Z with a TS N of the Leewards moving WNW:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.6N 56.6WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 21.08.2025 132 15.6N 56.6W 1009 260000UTC 22.08.2025 144 16.3N 58.8W 1007 321200UTC 22.08.2025 156 18.1N 60.9W 1006 370000UTC 23.08.2025 168 19.4N 63.3W 1005 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago OI LAD WE GOT OUR FIRST MAJOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 1. 2024 (161 ACE) didn’t get 2nd major til late Sep. 2. 2023 (146) didn’t have 1st MH til 8/20. 3. 2021 (146) 1st MH 8/20. 4. 2020 (180) 8/26 5. 2019 (132) 8/30 6. 2018 (133) 9/10 7. 2017 (225) 8/25 8. 2016 (141) 8/30 ——— 2025 got 1st MH on 8/16. Seasons with 1st MH by 8/16: 2024, 2008, 2005, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1995…only 7 of last 30 (23%). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 9 hours ago Author Share Posted 9 hours ago 12 minutes ago, GaWx said: 1. 2024 (161 ACE) didn’t get 2nd major til late Sep. 2. 2023 (146) didn’t have 1st MH til 8/20. 3. 2021 (146) 1st MH 8/20. 4. 2020 (180) 8/26 5. 2019 (132) 8/30 6. 2018 (133) 9/10 7. 2017 (225) 8/25 8. 2016 (141) 8/30 ——— 2025 got 1st MH on 8/16. Seasons with 1st MH by 8/16: 2024, 2008, 2005, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1995…only 7 of last 30 (23%). OI THE LASS IS C5 NOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 25 minutes ago, GaWx said: 1. 2024 (161 ACE) didn’t get 2nd major til late Sep. 2. 2023 (146) didn’t have 1st MH til 8/20. 3. 2021 (146) 1st MH 8/20. 4. 2020 (180) 8/26 5. 2019 (132) 8/30 6. 2018 (133) 9/10 7. 2017 (225) 8/25 8. 2016 (141) 8/30 ——— 2025 got 1st MH on 8/16. Seasons with 1st MH by 8/16: 2024, 2008, 2005, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1995…only 7 of last 30 (23%). Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago s2k users yapping, but these are good points MarioProtVI Category 4 Posts: 946 Age: 24 Joined: Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:33 pm Location: New Jersey Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models) #517 by MarioProtVI » Sat Aug 16, 2025 10:38 am Atlantic beating WPac once again to the punch in getting a Cat 5 3 likes Top Teban54 Category 5Posts: 3241 Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models) #518 by Teban54 » Sat Aug 16, 2025 12:33 pm Something something cool MDR, something something warm subtropics inducing stability:(15-day mean chosen to reduce the effects of Erin's cold wake) Something something inactive deep tropics: 5 likes Top Category5Kaiju Category 5Posts: 4144 Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm Location: Seattle Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models) #519 by Category5Kaiju » Sat Aug 16, 2025 5:56 pm To say that I'm concerned about the future of this season is....an understatement. With Erin already reaching Category 5 status by mid-August and with rumblings of yet another storm originating in the deep tropics in the coming days/weeks that potentially looks to be more of a land threat than Erin, there's no telling what September and October are going to look like. The fact that we're getting such formidable activity in what recently has been a relatively dead period in the Atlantic, combined with the expected -ENSO trend, makes me think that we still have a lot of season left and that Erin may not be the only Category 5 hurricane we see this season. I know there's been a lot of mixed signals early on this hurricane season, but at this point I think the tropics have really shown how they would like to proceed forward in terms of activity. Buckle up, and be prepared. 2 likes Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Low Pressure Lunacy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Anyone know if any models say where the yellow zucchini is going to go, fishing or to the gulf? No models posted anywhere yet, I know it is early, but it is coming in lower than Erin it looks like and it has me worried already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Low Pressure Lunacy said: Anyone know if any models say where the yellow zucchini is going to go, fishing or to the gulf? No models posted anywhere yet, I know it is early, but it is coming in lower than Erin it looks like and it has me worried already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, Low Pressure Lunacy said: Anyone know if any models say where the yellow zucchini is going to go, fishing or to the gulf? No models posted anywhere yet, I know it is early, but it is coming in lower than Erin it looks like and it has me worried already. This is the one has my attention. Early indications are mixed about ridging over the Atlantic in time but it is starting at a lower latitude than Erin and very likely will impact the islands more directly than Erin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, NorthHillsWx said: This is the one has my attention. Early indications are mixed about ridging over the Atlantic in time but it is starting at a lower latitude than Erin and very likely will impact the islands more directly than Erin new bread made: 5 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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