2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[BarryStantonGBP]

Happy birthday Kat

[GaWx]

 I count 8 of 30 (27%) of 12Z GFS ensemble members landfalling on the Conus from TX to ME within 8/27-9. GEFS suggests the MJO will most likely then be in phase 5, a rather active phase for Conus though not as active as phases 2 and 8. This is keeping me with a moderate concern for now:

 But the 12Z Euro like the 0Z has no TC from this. Also, it isn’t on the 12Z CMC. So, we’ll see. I already noted the 12Z UKMET with it.

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

29 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I count 8 of 30 (27%) of 12Z GFS ensemble members landfalling on the Conus from TX to ME within 8/27-9. GEFS suggests the MJO will most likely then be in phase 5, a rather active phase for Conus though not as active as phases 2 and 8. This is keeping me with a moderate concern for now:

 But the 12Z Euro like the 0Z has no TC from this. Also, it isn’t on the 12Z CMC. So, we’ll see. I already noted the 12Z UKMET with it.

 

What does the gefs say for September in terms of the mjo

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

What does the gefs say for September in terms of the mjo

It goes out only to Aug 29th, when it is in phase 5.

[BarryStantonGBP]

22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

It goes out only to Aug 29th, when it is in phase 5.

Any extrapolations?

[BarryStantonGBP]

On 8/14/2025 at 3:58 PM, BarryStantonGBP said:

DEEPMINDS UPDATE:

Erin expected to peak as a Cat 3-4, safe recurve for the CONUS but Bermuda needs to watch out

"Fernand" remaining a weak TS into TX (98L) and could be a category 1

"Gabrielle" becoming an OTS CV recurver (major)

"Humberto" forms in the WCAR and vomits in the Gulf (major landfall)

 

Aight never mind it’s Fernand and Gabrielle now with wave 2 coming first or what because 98L took an L

I gotta Check back 

[GaWx]

 Regarding the followup to Erin that GEFS remains pretty active with, the 12Z Euro ensemble is much quieter for the same time: