FPizz Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 20 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: This image really puts things in perspective of how small this tropical storm is in comparison with the Epac system. Atlantic really struggling to produce anything meaningful while adding named storms. Waste of a name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 I mean recon was in there. It checked all the boxes. It was slop, but def a classic early season short fuse TC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Homebrew area of interest odds up to 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Up to 40% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 My Atlantic hurricane season forecast model predicts an ACE of around 188 (90% confidence it will be between 141-235). Notably, last year's forecast of 152 was very close to the observed 162, and much closer than what was forecast by CSU (230) and TSR (240) at the same lead time. The correlation is robust going back to 1975: Perhaps the more interesting question is where will the storms go? Obviously this is much trickier to answer, but based on how ENSO has evolved over the past 16 months, the best analogs are 1967, 1971, 1981, 1984, 1996, 1999, 2006, 2011, and 2017. As seen below, there are some trends in the tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes in these years: Therefore, I would estimate an above-normal hurricane risk for the US East Coast, Antilles, and Western Basin, and slightly below-normal risk for the North Gulf Coast. To emphasize, this is just a general risk assessment and by no means rules out or forebodes a hurricane impact in any part of the basin. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Invest is 50% in the 7 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 Now 60%. So glad I'm boarding a cruise ship today that'll be heading into that area next week. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 03:55 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:55 AM Today the new monthly Euro seasonal outlook was released for August and beyond in the ATL basin. Compared to the prior monthly forecast, which was near the avg for the active period 1993-2015 for # of TS+/# of H and very slightly above the avg ACE, the new one is very slightly less active with very slightly below the 1993-2015 avg for # of TS+/# of H and right at the active period’s ACE avg. It’s forecasting 6.0 hurricanes vs a 6.7 avg. Last year at this time, it forecasted 8.4 of them for the same period in 2024. 2024 actually had 11 for July+. So, though beside my point, it wouldn’t surprise me if the 6 is a good bit too low especially if we end up with weak La Nina per RONI I predicted 9 H for 2025. The distribution of storms is similar to the prior forecast, which again suggests less activity from the NE Caribbean to Bahamas/FL/SE US/E Gulf vs last year’s horrendous season. It suggests near to very slightly below the active 1993-2015 activity in those regions. So, that wouldn’t mean quiet but instead less active than a terrible year. Fingers crossed this will be right, especially for FL/SE US, because another year like 2024 could be a real disaster for especially FL’s home insurance industry. 7/1/25 Euro fcast for August+: 7/1/24 Euro fcast for August+: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 01:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:55 PM Despite running well ahead of normal with already 3 NS, the ACE through July 6th is still only at 1.46 vs the 1951-2024 avg of 4.12! That is lower than 46 of those 74 years. I’ll now compare to other years since 1951 with 3+ NS by July 6th along with their ACE:Year: NS/ACE 1954: 3/8.56 1959: 4/7.18 1968: 3/13.54 2005: 4/5.84 2012: 4/11.2 2016: 4/6.85 2017: 3/3.18 2020: 5/7.24 2021: 5/10.59 2023: 3/8.62 2024: 3/32.57 2025: 3/1.46 Note that for these 12 seasons since 1951 with 3+ NS by July 6th, the year 2025 has by far the lowest ACE/storm (0.49)! That easily beats the 2nd lowest, 2017’s 1.06/storm. The highest is 2024’s 10.86/storm. The avg of these 12 seasons through July 6th is ~2.8 ACE/storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AStorms13 Posted Monday at 03:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:35 PM 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Despite running well ahead of normal with already 3 NS, the ACE through July 6th is still only at 1.46 vs the 1951-2024 avg of 4.12! That is lower than 46 of those 74 years. I’ll now compare to other years since 1951 with 3+ NS by July 6th along with their ACE:Year: NS/ACE 1954: 3/8.56 1959: 4/7.18 1968: 3/13.54 2005: 4/5.84 2012: 4/11.2 2016: 4/6.85 2017: 3/3.18 2020: 5/7.24 2021: 5/10.59 2023: 3/8.62 2024: 3/32.57 2025: 3/1.46 Note that for these 12 seasons since 1951 with 3+ NS by July 6th, the year 2025 has by far the lowest ACE/storm (0.49)! That easily beats the 2nd lowest, 2017’s 1.06/storm. The highest is 2024’s 10.86/storm. The avg of these 12 seasons through July 6th is ~2.8 ACE/storm. Quite interesting! What can we take away from this? What conditions allow storms form but not sustain themselves? Just a coincidence? Also, 2024 as an outlier being followed up by another outlier on the opposite side of the spectrum is interesting as well. A sign that hurricane seasons are getting less predictable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 03:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:47 PM 9 minutes ago, AStorms13 said: Quite interesting! What can we take away from this? What conditions allow storms form but not sustain themselves? Just a coincidence? Also, 2024 as an outlier being followed up by another outlier on the opposite side of the spectrum is interesting as well. A sign that hurricane seasons are getting less predictable? I think it’s a combo of just randomness and the decision to classify or not as a NS as storm #1 of 2025 might not been named in some of the other seasons since 1951. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 04:16 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:16 PM 2 hours ago, GaWx said: Despite running well ahead of normal with already 3 NS, the ACE through July 6th is still only at 1.46 vs the 1951-2024 avg of 4.12! That is lower than 46 of those 74 years. I’ll now compare to other years since 1951 with 3+ NS by July 6th along with their ACE:Year: NS/ACE 1954: 3/8.56 1959: 4/7.18 1968: 3/13.54 2005: 4/5.84 2012: 4/11.2 2016: 4/6.85 2017: 3/3.18 2020: 5/7.24 2021: 5/10.59 2023: 3/8.62 2024: 3/32.57 2025: 3/1.46 Note that for these 12 seasons since 1951 with 3+ NS by July 6th, the year 2025 has by far the lowest ACE/storm (0.49)! That easily beats the 2nd lowest, 2017’s 1.06/storm. The highest is 2024’s 10.86/storm. The avg of these 12 seasons through July 6th is ~2.8 ACE/storm. And even with such low ACE, the two landfalling systems brought catastrophic impacts to relatively localized areas of the country. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Monday at 08:03 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 08:03 PM 2025 Atlantic hurricane season Season summary map Seasonal boundaries First system formed June 24, 2025 Last system dissipated Season ongoing Strongest storm Name Chantal • Maximum winds 60 mph (95 km/h) (1-minute sustained) • Lowest pressure 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg) Seasonal statistics Total depressions 3 Total storms 3 Hurricanes 0 Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+) 0 Total fatalities 100 Total damage > $3.32 million (2025 USD) Related articles Timeline of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season 2025 Pacific hurricane season 2025 Pacific typhoon season 2025 North Indian Ocean cyclone season Atlantic hurricane seasons2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Tuesday at 04:46 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 04:46 PM Breaking news: the braindead are now calling for season cancel all over Twitter and storm 2 k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted Tuesday at 06:10 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:10 PM 1 hour ago, BarryStantonGBP said: Breaking news: the braindead are now calling for season cancel all over Twitter and storm 2 k We go through this every year pretty much when it hits July/Early August people just start calling the season cancelled because for some reason they expect storms to form in June and July lol. Season doesn't truly start until middle/late August but I guess you can't get it through peoples dense heads no matter how many times you explain to them. I guess that's why people end up believing other stupid things no matter how much proof you show them. Once they are decided on something it's very hard to change their perspective. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Tuesday at 07:23 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 07:23 PM 1 hour ago, TheDreamTraveler said: We go through this every year pretty much when it hits July/Early August people just start calling the season cancelled because for some reason they expect storms to form in June and July lol. Season doesn't truly start until middle/late August but I guess you can't get it through peoples dense heads no matter how many times you explain to them. I guess that's why people end up believing other stupid things no matter how much proof you show them. Once they are decided on something it's very hard to change their perspective. And it’s the same click baity captions too i have stopped listening to so called Twitter mets who cling onto the same broken models year after year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Tuesday at 07:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:26 PM 2 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: Breaking news: the braindead are now calling for season cancel all over Twitter and storm 2 k Barry, Who on Storm 2K is calling for season cancel? I’ve seen nobody say anything of the sort. I’ve seen someone say “not very active”, which doesn’t at all mean season cancel. There’s a whole lot of options between very active and season cancel. I’ve seen someone else say the warmer subtropics vs tropics tend to suppress basin activity, but that also isn’t the same thing as season cancel. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Tuesday at 07:48 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 07:48 PM 18 minutes ago, GaWx said: Barry, Who on Storm 2K is calling for season cancel? I’ve seen nobody say anything of the sort. I’ve seen someone say “not very active”, which doesn’t at all mean season cancel. There’s a whole lot of options between very active and season cancel. I’ve seen someone else say the warmer subtropics vs tropics tend to suppress basin activity, but that also isn’t the same thing as season cancel. I won’t name names but you know the quotes. They’re calling for season cancel all because of some broken models. That’s why I NEVER trust models these days and rely mostly on Gary Lezak: “Mr Webb continues to post important messages. Below are 4 more as a thread at X. The bottomline is things are looking bleak to put a word to have an active or even an average season.” “Most likely sea level pressure anomalies (from UK Met Office) not looking favourable for tropical cyclone activity across the Atlantic basin. From the dynamical model seasonal forecasts I have looked at, I am not seeing a very active season this year.” “The July run of NMME for precipitation and sst anomalys for ASO looks not so good to have an active to hyperactive rest of season” “Tyler claims 2000 as his closest analog to 2025.” “Wow. Very unfavorable view here from Tyler who knows a lot about the patterns. But closer to where people live is where the activity may be.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Tuesday at 07:52 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 07:52 PM 24 minutes ago, GaWx said: Barry, Who on Storm 2K is calling for season cancel? I’ve seen nobody say anything of the sort. I’ve seen someone say “not very active”, which doesn’t at all mean season cancel. There’s a whole lot of options between very active and season cancel. I’ve seen someone else say the warmer subtropics vs tropics tend to suppress basin activity, but that also isn’t the same thing as season cancel. They left out this guy as well, he made a sound claim ngl. They’re just cherry picking tweets that claim the season will be below average load of bollocks going on in the other forum if you ask me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 18 hours ago Author Share Posted 18 hours ago SAINT MJO IS BACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 10 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: SAINT MJO IS BACK Just to clarify for the readers here who don’t read the small print and do the calendar calculations, this Euro Weeklies map from yesterday covers *August 4-10. *Corrected dates to Aug 4-10 as I had first said Aug 5-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 18 hours ago Author Share Posted 18 hours ago 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: Just to clarify for the readers here who don’t read the small print and do the calendar calculations, this Euro Weeklies map from yesterday covers August 5-12. Gary Lezak >>>>>> mainstream forecasters and models. I give up with the models https://futuresnow.co/hurricane-forecast-2025/ 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 15 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: Gary Lezak >>>>>> mainstream forecasters and models. I give up with the models https://futuresnow.co/hurricane-forecast-2025/ I’m sorry but this is crap. No one can predict landfall locations more then a week out better then climatology. Even with AI. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I’m sorry but this is crap. No one can predict landfall locations more then a week out better then climatology. Even with AI. Agreed. It's complete crap. None of the dates listed so far have verified in terms of activity. The dates leading up to the 4th is when we had Chantal, which occurred in the Carolinas, not the TX/LA coasts. Also, there is NO peer reviewed papers (or any papers at all) on how Lezak comes up with this numbers. If you ask him (I have), he either brushes you off or blocks you. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 2 minutes ago, crownweather said: Agreed. It's complete crap. None of the dates listed so far have verified in terms of activity. The dates leading up to the 4th is when we had Chantal, which occurred in the Carolinas, not the TX/LA coasts. Also, there is NO peer reviewed papers (or any papers at all) on how Lezak comes up with this numbers. If you ask him (I have), he either brushes you off or blocks you. It’s an every dog has its day strategy. Just simply using climatology you are likely to be right. When you’re right you pump it out to social media. When you are wrong, deny, block and move on. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago This 7/9/25 CSU update was just posted at storm 2K: note that this isn’t anywhere close to saying “season cancel” as it is merely a slight decrease to still slightly above activity vs the recent active era: ACE dropped from 155 to 140, which is still 18 greater than 1991-2020 avg: CSU July 9 updateWe have decreased our forecast slightly and now call for a slightly above-normal 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season. The primary reason for the slight decrease in the outlook is both observed and predicted high levels of Caribbean shear. High levels of Caribbean shear in June/July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons. However, we also anticipate the tropical Pacific to be characterized by ENSO neutral conditions. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are slightly warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity. Analog years for 2025 with the associated hurricane activity listed for each year.Year NS NSD H HD MH MHD ACE NTC2001 15 68.75 9 25.50 4 4.25 110.1 135.32008 16 88.25 8 30.50 5 7.50 145.7 162.32011 19 89.75 7 26.00 4 4.50 126.3 144.92021 21 79.75 7 27.75 4 12.75 145.6 173.7Average 17.8 81.6 7.8 27.4 4.3 7.3 131.9 154.02025 Forecast 16 80 8 30 3 8 140 145 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 1 hour ago, BarryStantonGBP said: Gary Lezak >>>>>> mainstream forecasters and models. I give up with the models https://futuresnow.co/hurricane-forecast-2025/ What are we doing here? This is no better (worse, maybe?) than just throwing darts at a map and calendar and claiming to know when storms are gonna hit 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 15 hours ago Author Share Posted 15 hours ago 3 hours ago, crownweather said: Agreed. It's complete crap. None of the dates listed so far have verified in terms of activity. The dates leading up to the 4th is when we had Chantal, which occurred in the Carolinas, not the TX/LA coasts. Also, there is NO peer reviewed papers (or any papers at all) on how Lezak comes up with this numbers. If you ask him (I have), he either brushes you off or blocks you. June-July Texas was listed and that’s when Barry, the proud father of 5, dumped his remnants on Texas also LRC is a novel and innovative way of foreseeing future storms and forecasts as well as their supercomputer I have given up on mainstream forecasters parroting the same stuff over and over again only for them to flop badly in numbers AKA TALES FROM THE SWEATSHOP IN THAILAND what did you even ask lezak 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 15 hours ago Author Share Posted 15 hours ago 3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I’m sorry but this is crap. No one can predict landfall locations more then a week out better then climatology. Even with AI. Tales from the sweatshop in Thailand have you even seen the accuracy levels of weather 20/20 forecasts vs the mainstream 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 15 hours ago Author Share Posted 15 hours ago 2 hours ago, nvck said: What are we doing here? This is no better (worse, maybe?) than just throwing darts at a map and calendar and claiming to know when storms are gonna hit Mainstream forecasters keep parroting the same tales from the sweatshop in Thailand aka busted forecasts I am mostly relying on forecasters like Zach Fradella and Gary Lezak 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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