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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2024 Obs/Discussion


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10 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro and CMC  both take Debby remnant center right over Cape May. Plenty of tropical rains for parts of the area.  Unless your 'the drought guy'.

Laugh now Ralph, but watch the storm take a wide right and leave us all wondering what the hell happened.  I will not believe the models precip runs again until my rain gauge registers two inches of precip and the precip is actually called for. These precip models have been poor in their guidance all summer. Hit and miss t storms will not make the cut. Even Mt Holly has had trouble with posting 60-80 % chances of precip and then  changing their forecasts two- four hours later and lowering the aerial coverage to 20%. I have been using my leaf blower after every t storm because of the amount of scorched leaves from the trees being blown off from the gusty winds with little to no  rainfall.  It appears MT Holly is already downgrading the precip totals between forecast periods  this morning too going from 1-2 inches to less than an inch in the last four hours.  Enjoy your tropical rains. 

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Sunny and warm today but a bit less humid. Rain chances increase by tomorrow night with a cold front approach. A flood watch in effect for tomorrow night and then rain chances continue for most of the week with the remnants of Debby moving up the coast late week.
Chester County records for today: High 102 degrees at Kennett Square (1918) / Low 44 degrees at Phoenixville (1951) / Rain 2.43" at Phoenixville (1923)
image.png.7b77bbca7575be91a7a68dca8de41ac0.png
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After a low of of 73 this morning, am currently mostly sunny and 89 with dp 71.

7 hours ago, Albedoman said:

Laugh now Ralph, but watch the storm take a wide right and leave us all wondering what the hell happened.  I will not believe the models precip runs again until my rain gauge registers two inches of precip and the precip is actually called for. These precip models have been poor in their guidance all summer. Hit and miss t storms will not make the cut. Even Mt Holly has had trouble with posting 60-80 % chances of precip and then  changing their forecasts two- four hours later and lowering the aerial coverage to 20%. I have been using my leaf blower after every t storm because of the amount of scorched leaves from the trees being blown off from the gusty winds with little to no  rainfall.  It appears MT Holly is already downgrading the precip totals between forecast periods  this morning too going from 1-2 inches to less than an inch in the last four hours.  Enjoy your tropical rains. 

You're almost in the cone! :lol:

095139_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind1.png

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2 hours ago, RedSky said:

This is the one week of the year I needed it to be dry.

gem-all-ne-total_precip_inch-3269600.png

C,mon man, my location in the bullseye for Saturday? These models are garbage. Lets see how many times this changes in the next five days. 11 in of rain. If this scenario actually happens, it will be the worst foods ever to hit Lehigh Valley.  Isaias was bad enough in 2020 with 8 in of rain in 24 hours. here was my front yard in the pic below in 2020.

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

C,mon man, my location in the bullseye for Saturday? These models are garbage. Lets see how many times this changes in the next five days. 11 in of rain. If this scenario actually happens, it will be the worst foods ever to hit Lehigh Valley.  Isaias was bad enough in 2020 with 8 in of rain in 24 hours. here was my front yard in the pic below in 2020.

 

 

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20200804_180538.jpg

Damn brutal, but the firepits still good to go

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2 hours ago, Albedoman said:

C,mon man, my location in the bullseye for Saturday? These models are garbage. Lets see how many times this changes in the next five days. 11 in of rain. If this scenario actually happens, it will be the worst foods ever to hit Lehigh Valley.  Isaias was bad enough in 2020 with 8 in of rain in 24 hours. here was my front yard in the pic below in 2020.

 

 

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Get ready!

As an obs, I made it up to 92 as a high and it's currently 88 and partly cloudy with dp 73.

213329_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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6 hours ago, Albedoman said:

C,mon man, my location in the bullseye for Saturday? These models are garbage. Lets see how many times this changes in the next five days. 11 in of rain. If this scenario actually happens, it will be the worst foods ever to hit Lehigh Valley.  Isaias was bad enough in 2020 with 8 in of rain in 24 hours. here was my front yard in the pic below in 2020.

 

 

20200804_173509.jpg

20200804_180538.jpg

Probably won’t be as bad as Isaias or Ida but flood prone areas are gonna get hit pretty bad.

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Any sun this morning should fade as the cold front approaches this PM. Rain should start by late afternoon toward early evening. Heaviest rain overnight with up to a couple inches possible in spots. The impacts of TS Debby will keep us wet for much of the rest of the work week.
Chester County records for today: High 104 degrees at Sadsburyville (1918) / Record low 44 degrees at Phoenixville (1957) / Rain 2.19" at Longwood Gardens (2020)
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Jesus crackers trying to make my plans this week is like trying to navigate a heavily poplulated mine field. Will I have a mostly dry day today until 7pm? Can't figure it out after going through guidance. Will tomorrow afternoon shower? No clue. How about Thursday? Ummm 50/50 but really no clue. Friday looks like a 99.9% chance of a total washout. How about Saturday? GFS says your drenched, but everything else says you clear out late morning and a good day. 

Most of the chaos is caused by this damn slowing front.

 

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1 hour ago, LVblizzard said:

SPC has a slight risk in place for most of us today. Short range models show a pretty intense line passing through sometime between 7-11 pm. Could be a fun evening.

I expect some nice winds ahead/with the front along w/lightning/thunder/downpours. Not severe but it will be active. I see no way all of us get screwed. Maybe some but that goes w/o saying w/any system...

92F/DP 74F

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8 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Jesus crackers trying to make my plans this week is like trying to navigate a heavily poplulated mine field. Will I have a mostly dry day today until 7pm? Can't figure it out after going through guidance. Will tomorrow afternoon shower? No clue. How about Thursday? Ummm 50/50 but really no clue. Friday looks like a 99.9% chance of a total washout. How about Saturday? GFS says your drenched, but everything else says you clear out late morning and a good day. 

Most of the chaos is caused by this damn slowing front.

 

Here's the front so it's a judgement call if it arrives before 7pm. Also some popups could occur before the front. My guess is some rain before 7pm... 

here.jpg

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3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Here's the front so it's a judgement call if it arrives before 7pm. Also some popups could occur before the front. My guess is some rain before 7pm... 

here.jpg

It's all a guess the Hrrr and NAM runs have mostly been showing dry until 7pm

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ST Watches are up -

Quote

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 606
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2024

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 606 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC011-017-025-029-045-069-077-079-089-091-095-101-103-127-131-
070300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0606.240806T1750Z-240807T0300Z/

PA
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKS                BUCKS               CARBON
CHESTER              DELAWARE            LACKAWANNA
LEHIGH               LUZERNE             MONROE
MONTGOMERY           NORTHAMPTON         PHILADELPHIA
PIKE                 WAYNE               WYOMING
$$

 

Quote

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 606
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2024

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 606 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037-
039-041-070300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0606.240806T1750Z-240807T0300Z/

NJ
.    NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERGEN               BURLINGTON          CAMDEN
ESSEX                GLOUCESTER          HUDSON
HUNTERDON            MERCER              MIDDLESEX
MONMOUTH             MORRIS              OCEAN
PASSAIC              SOMERSET            SUSSEX
UNION                WARREN
$$

Current temp here is 93 with dp 78.

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