NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential - Part 7

[bmc10]

Based on other guidance the NAM seems to be the eastern outlier. It has been pretty horrible handling this system, probably the worst of any model so far.

[ace0927]

LI BLITZTED

yep

[Noreaster07]

When I see this I'm not concerned about the 00z NAM run

[Manny]

I'll say it again. NAM is a huge hit for NYC, LI and surrounding area.

Yeah, Just saw hour 30 and 36. Not too far off from the 18z run.

[Sundog]

Here's through 36:

[Ababa]

NAM looks pretty good to me here in Queens NY. I wouldn't worry too much in the western areas i.e. phlly.....NAM is a big east outlier.

[LVblizzard]

Here you go weenies, the 1z RUC looks more like the SREFs.

[gkrangers]

Yeah, Just saw hour 30 and 36. Not too far off from the 18z run.

Even for EPA they are still fine. It is a small shift east but most still do fine. It's those right on the razor's edge that wil suffer with any shift.

NAM dropped me from 1.75 to 1.5. I think I'll manage though.

[atownwxwatcher]

Your times are off.

Irregardless the 00z NAM is not good for inland areas the QPF came way down thru 36 hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p36_036m.gif

Versus

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_p36_042m.gif

And these are the same time frame...not saying i am believing the NAM but it does raise potential concerns for those of us further inland

[jrodd321]

Does the 21z SREF's use 00z data?

[mattinpa]

Even the NAM would be 6-10" for here in Montgomery County. So people in the Philly suburbs do pretty well.

[simpsonsbuff]

NAM looks pretty good to me here in Queens NY. I wouldn't worry too much in the western areas i.e. phlly.....NAM is a big east outlier.

I agree with this 100%. While the NAM could be onto something, most likely it's on whatever it's been on this entire storm... and this is from someone who isn't really affected by the NAM's "eastern" solution.

[jdt]

NAM is obviously a little east of most other guidance and thus keeps the heaviest qpf along the coast and NYC east. Still a sizable snowfall to the Delaware River and a moderate snowfall eastern PA. Is this a plausable outcome? Sure why not. Not saying it is the outcome but I see no reason to discount it completely unless a specific reason can be found that shows it is flawed. Such powerful and dynamic systems almost always have a few surprises as they unfold. Some good some bad and most often it all depends on how it looks from your backyard.

[Animal]

NAM looks pretty good to me here in Queens NY. I wouldn't worry too much in the western areas i.e. phlly.....NAM is a big east outlier.

well if you lived out near Lancaster or Reading, Pa or the far western burbs oh PHL you would be concerned.

NYC-Long Island get crushed this run

getting worked up over 1 run is pointless

[OSU2]

Way too much panic going on here, which is to be expected.

New 21Z SREF holds which I love to use in this range (Winter Or Otherwise).

ERIC

[bluehens]

These are wrong.....you've got a 12 hr difference between the two instead of 6

Thru 30 hrs

Versus

[NEXtreme]

Steve D says he can give a crap about the models now because they have done so great this week. Look at what the weather has and is doing at the moment. The Nam is just trying to figure out where the heaviest convective banding snow sets up. The next model runs will bounce around.

[gkrangers]

Does the 21z SREF's use 00z data?

Think about that question for a minute.

[ace0927]

Does the 21z SREF's use 00z data?

how can something that happened 3 hours PRIOR to 0z ingest data that hasnt happened yet? I really have no idea if I am right or wrong...im just using logical assumption

[ptb127]

Way too much panic going on here, which is to be expected.

New 21Z SREF holds which I love to use in this range (Winter Or Otherwise).

ERIC

That's great news as it hit a lot people further inland too

[NortheastBravest]

Steve D says he can give a crap about the models now because they have done so great this week. Look at what the weather has and is doing at the moment. The Nam is just trying to figure out where the heaviest convective banding snow sets up. The next model runs will bounce around.

Live Show with Steve D

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/tristateweather/2010/12/26/dec-27-east-coast-snow-threat-with-meteorologist-s

[joey]

LI BLITZTED

Dude, we are gonna be in the sweetest spot for this storm.

[Sunny and Warm]

Thru 30 hrs

Versus

Those maps don't mean much since the difference is mainly due to speed of the SLP and dryness of the run. If you run a 48 hour map, it'd mean more. It would likely still be dry, as this run was dry overall. Not sure I believe that or not. All models do that from time to time.

[Animal]

Even the NAM would be 6-10" for here in Montgomery County. So people in the Philly suburbs do pretty well.

glenn's at nbc 10 in phl seems very agressive for 10-20 going off the 0 z nam.

18 nam was much better overall, but at this point just need to watch and wait

[FlorenceNJWX]

Way too much panic going on here, which is to be expected.

New 21Z SREF holds which I love to use in this range (Winter Or Otherwise).

ERIC

Thank you for your thoughts...nice to see a Philly area met in this thread.

[jrodd321]

Think about that question for a minute.

Ugh its been a long day. Haha sorry

[goombatommy]

Irregardless the 00z NAM is not good for inland areas the QPF came way down thru 36 hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep....am_p36_036m.gif

Versus

http://www.nco.ncep....am_p36_042m.gif

And these are the same time frame...not saying i am believing the NAM but it does raise potential concerns for those of us further inland

Yea but most of KABE is still under .75 qpf - which is still a decent hit.

[OSU2]

That's great news as it hit a lot people further inland too

This is a very dynamic system. I can't say for sure the track is going to be exactly here or there at this point. I really don't care.

That is why you forecast a range for accumulations to take into account possible shifts, etc.

Loving the 500mb setup.

This is a big event for many. Don't get hung up on minor adjustments.

ERIC

[SnowGoose69]

Steve D says he can give a crap about the models now because they have done so great this week. Look at what the weather has and is doing at the moment. The Nam is just trying to figure out where the heaviest convective banding snow sets up. The next model runs will bounce around.

More or less correct, this is the final run I look at for this storm, I probably won't even check the 06Z or 12Z runs other than maybe to see what they try and show for the 12Z-20Z period Monday...I often come on here during big events and see bickering in some of the regional threads about what the models are showing and I'm thinking "People are still looking at them?!"

[Voyager]

Lol it's like 10 miles east, the over reactions are hystericall

Are they? As someone pointed out earlier, for places and people well within the heaviest area of qpf, it probably doesn't matter. For those of us farther west where we are riding the fence so as it is with regard to the tight gradient, any move to the east has BIG implications.