April 2024 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ...

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

Deadline is 06z Apr 2nd (early Tuesday in EDT) 

(deadline is one day later in view of Easter weekend timing so regular entrants take note, you can enter or edit up to later deadline, no penalty ... I won't even look at forecasts until Tuesday morning.)

[rainsucks]

DCA: +3.5

NYC: +3.7

BOS: +3.5

ORD: +3.5

ATL: +2.5

IAH: +2.1

DEN: +2.4

PHX: +1.0

SEA: +1.5

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA: +3.1

NYC: +4.2

BOS: +4.1

ORD: +3.2

ATL: +2.1

IAH: +2.6

DEN: +2.7

PHX: +2.3

SEA: +2.9

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

1.5         1.0         1.0        1.5          2.0      2.0       2.0       2.0       1.5

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

1.5         1.5         1.2        1.7        0.3      0.0        0.5       -0.8       0.8

[so_whats_happening]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+1.3     +1.6    +2       +2.6     +1    +.8       +.8      0      +.4

 

Happy Easter Everyone. Wanted to get this done before Vacation starts.

[Tom]

DCA: +1.6

NYC: +1.8

BOS: +1.8

ORD: +2.1

ATL: +1.2

IAH: +1.5

DEN: +0.9

PHX: +0.6

SEA: +0.2

[wxallannj]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+2.2   +2.4    +2.6    +2.8    +2.5   +1.2   +2.4    +0.5   -0.5 

[Roger Smith]

+2.0 _ +2.2 _ +2.5 _ +2.3 _ +2.1 _ +2.8 __ +2.8 _ +1.0 _ +0.2

In case you didn't look at opening post, deadline is one day later ... you can edit already posted forecasts to 06z 2nd, and enter (no penalty) up to later deadline.

Will send a note to anyone not in by 06z. 

[bkviking]

DCA: +1.5

NYC: +1.6

BOS: +1.5

ORD: +1.9

ATL: +1.0

IAH: +1.5

DEN: +0.2

PHX: +1.0

SEA: +0.9

[wxdude64]

DCA:  +1.1

NYC:  +1.0

BOS:  +1.0

ORD:  +1.0

ATL:  +0.1

IAH:  +0.1

DEN:  +0.6

PHX:  +0.2

SEA:  +0.9

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

-0.3       1.1         0.9        -0.1      -0.2      1.1         0.6       -1.9      -0.2

[Rjay]

DCA: +2.0

 

NYC: +2.0

 

BOS: +2.0

 

ORD: +2.0

 

ATL: +1.0

 

IAH: +1.0

 

DEN: +1.0

 

PHX: 0.0

 

SEA: 0.0

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for April 2024 

 

FORECASTER _________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

rainsucks ______________________________+3.5 _ +3.7 _ +3.5 ___ +3.5 _ +2.5 _+2.1 ___ +2.4 _+1.0 _+1.5

hudsonvalley21 ________________________+3.1 _ +4.2 _ +4.1 ___ +3.2 _ +2.1 _ +2.6 ___ +2.7 _+2.3 _+2.9

wxallannj ______________________________+2.2 _ +2.4 _ +2.6 ___ +2.8 _ +2.5 _ +1.2 ___ +2.4 _+0.5 _-0.5

Roger Smith ___________________________+2.0 _ +2.2 _ +2.5 ___ +2.3 _ +2.1 _ +2.8 ___ +2.8 _+1.0 _+0.2

RJay ___________________________________+2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

Tom ____________________________________+1.6 _ +1.8 _ +1.8 ___ +2.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.5 ___ +0.9 _ +0.6 _ +0.2

___ Consensus _________________________+1.6 _ +1.7 _ +1.9 ___ +2.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.5 ___ +1.0 _ +0.4 _ +0.6

BKViking _______________________________+1.5 _ +1.6 _ +1.5 ___ +1.9 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +0.2 _ +1.0 _ +0.9

DonSutherland1 _______________________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 ___ +1.7 _ +0.3 __ 0.0 ___ +0.5 _ -0.8 _ +0.8

Scotty Lightning _______________________+1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5

so_whats_happening ___________________+1.3 _ +1.6 _ +2.0 ___+2.6 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 ___ +0.8 __ 0.0 _+0.4 

wxdude64 ______________________________+1.1 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +0.1 _ +0.1 ____ +0.6 _+0.2 _+0.9

___ Normal _______________________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

RodneyS ________________________________-0.3 _ +1.1 _ +0.9 ___ -0.1 _ -0.2 _ +1.1 ____ +0.6 __-1.9 __-0.2

 

Persistence ____________________________ +4.3 _ +5.3 _ +3.7 ___+5.0 _+3.2 _+2.8 ___ -0.2 _ -1.2 _ +0.1

==================

Color codes for warmest and coldest forecasts, Normal coldest for NYC, BOS, IAH, DEN. 

[Roger Smith]

At the halfway point updated to Apr 24 ... anomalies and projections ...

 

___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

______ (15d anom) ________+2.9 _ +3.3 _ +1.6 ___ +3.9 _ +1.9 _ +3.7 ___ +4.8 _ -2.7 _ -0.6

______ (24d anom) ________+2.3 _ +2.0 _ +0.9 ___ +2.4 _ +1.9 _ +2.6 ___ +2.9 _ +0.9 _ -0.3

 

16 ___(p30d anom) _______+1.5 _ +2.0 _ +0.5 ___ +3.0 _ +1.5 _ +3.5 ___ +4.0 __ 0.0 _ -1.0

25 ____(p30d anom) _______+2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 ___ +3.0 _ +2.0 _ +3.5 ___ +3.0 __+1.0 _ -0.5

final anomalies ___________ +2.3 _ +1.9 _ +0.2 ___ +3.0 _ +2.2 _ +2.8 ___ +2.7 __+0.8 _ -1.1

 

(Apr 16) _ Projections are based on a rather cool second half pattern in east and PAC NW, very warm southwest US to Texas, continued warm DEN)

(Apr 25) _ Projections updated, only a few slight changes.

 

Apr 15 _ Updates to snowfall contest will appear later (noted in last table posted in last month's contest thread).

(a few increases since 1st Apr for 9.8 BOS, 22.2 ORD, 23.5 DTW, 71.3 BUF, 38.3 DEN, 60.8 BTV)

By Apr 30 ... DEN 44.6 (no other changes)

 

[Roger Smith]

 

Final scoring for April 2024

 

(final values) ________________________________+2.3 _+1.9 _+0.2 ____ +3.0 _+2.2 _+2.9__________ +2.7 _+0.8 _-1.1

FORECASTER _________________________DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA_west ___ TOTAL

 

Roger Smith __________________________ 94 _ 94 _ 54 __ 242 __ 86 _ 98 _100__ 284 _ 526 _ 98 _ 96 _ 74 __ 268 ____ 794

wxallannj ______________________________98 _ 90 _ 52 __ 240 __ 96 _ 94 _ 68 __ 258 _ 498 _ 94 _ 94 _ 88 __ 276 ____ 774

Tom ___________________________________86 _ 98 _ 68 __ 252 __ 82 _ 80 _ 74 __ 236 _ 488 _ 64 _ 96 _ 74 __ 234 ____ 722

Scotty Lightning _______________________84 _ 82 _ 84 __ 250 __ 70 _ 96 _ 84 __ 250 _ 500 _ 86 _ 76 _ 48 __ 210 ____ 710

___ Consensus ________________________ 86 _ 96 _ 66 __ 248 __ 82 _ 80 _ 74 __ 236 _ 484 _ 66 _ 92 _ 66 __ 224 ____ 708

RJay __________________________________ 94 _ 98 _64 __ 256 __ 80 _ 76 _ 64 __ 220 _ 476 _ 66 _ 84 _ 78 __ 228 ____ 704

BKViking ______________________________ 84 _ 94 _ 74 __ 252 __ 78 _ 76 _ 74 __ 228 _ 480 _ 50 _ 96 _ 60 __ 206 ____ 686

rainsucks _____________________________ 76 _ 64 _ 34 __ 174 __ 90 _ 94 _ 86 __ 270 _ 444 _ 94 _ 96 _ 48 __ 238 ____ 682

so_whats_happening __________________80 _ 94 _ 64 __ 238 __ 92 _ 76 _ 60 __ 228 _ 466 _ 62 _ 84 _ 70 __ 216 ____ 682 

hudsonvalley21 _______________________ 84 _ 54 _ 32 __ 170 __ 96 _ 98 _ 96 __ 290 _ 460 _100_ 70 _ 20 __ 190 ____ 650

DonSutherland1 _______________________ 84 _ 92 _ 80 __ 256 __ 74 _ 62 _ 44 __ 180 _ 436 _ 56 _ 68 _ 62 __ 186 ____ 622

wxdude64 _____________________________76 _ 82 _ 84 __ 242 __ 60 _ 58 _ 46 __ 164 _ 406 _ 58 _ 88 _ 60 __ 206 ____ 612

___ Normal _____________________________54 _ 62 _ 96 __ 212 __ 40 _ 56 _ 44 __ 140 _ 352 _ 46 _ 84 _ 78 __ 208 ____ 560

RodneyS _______________________________48 _ 84 _ 86 __ 218 __ 38 _ 52 _ 66 __ 156 _ 374 _ 58 _ 46 _ 82 __ 186 ____ 560

 

Persistence ____________________________60 _ 32 _ 30 __ 122 __ 60 _ 80 _100__ 240 _ 352 _ 42 _ 60 _ 76 __ 178 ____ 530

 

=====================

 

Extreme forecasts

_ BOS (+0.2) is a win for RodneyS with coldest forecast (+0.9), and also a win for Normal.

_ ORD (+3.0) is a win for hudsonvalley21 (+3.2) and wxallannj (+2.8) and a loss for rainsucks (+3.5). 

_ ATL (+2.2) is a shared win for hudsonvalley21 and Roger S (+2.1) and a shared loss for wxallannj and rainsucks (+2.5)

_ IAH (+2.8) is a win for Roger Smith (+2.8)

_DEN (+2.7) is a win hudsonvalley21 at +2.7, and a loss for Roger S (+2.8).

_SEA (-1.1) is a win for wxallannj (-0.5).

 

NOTE: will require quality control, I did work just before leaving for day of touring Zion NP, will revisit next two days. 

 

[hudsonvalley21]

Have a great time on your sortie.

[Roger Smith]

<<<< ===[]===[] .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-Apr 2024 ==== ..........[]===[]=== >>>> 

 

wxallannj _______________ 294 _274 _294 __ 862 __246 _316 _218 __780 _1642 __294 _368 _342 _1004____ 2646

rainsucks _______________352 _358 _276 __986__ 243 _274 _234 __ 751 _1737 __174 _302 _284 __ 760 ____ 2497

___ Consensus _________ 268 _250_276 __794 __266_288 _218 __772 _1566 __208 _344 _324 __876____ 2442

DonSutherland1 ________284 _292 _294 __ 870 __ 284 _268 _180 __ 732 _1602 __248 _310 _262 __820 ____ 2422

RJay ____________________291 _298 _249 __ 838 __257 _282 _174 __ 713 _1551 __ 238 _309 _295 __838 ____ 2393 (2440)*

so_whats_happening ___ 258 _256 _288 __ 802 __279 _256 _166 __ 701 _1503 __244 _290 _318 __852 ____ 2355 

hudsonvalley21 _________278 _204 _232 __ 714 __254 _286 _250 __ 790 _1504 __216 _276 _298 __790 ____ 2294

BKViking ________________272 _250 _284 __ 806 __204 _260 _194 __ 658 _1464 __194 _328 _294 __816 ____ 2280

RodneyS ________________162 _236 _282 __ 680 __193 _216 _230 __ 639 _ 1319 __ 262 _284 _316 __862 ____ 2181

Tom _____________________218 _198 _226 __ 642 __198 _256 _206 __ 660 _1302 __ 170 _314 _312 __ 796 ____ 2098

Scotty Lightning ________214 _156 _ 188 __ 558 __148 _292 _236 __ 676 _1234 __ 214 _292 _330 __836 ____ 2070

Roger Smith _____________224 _202 _136 __ 562 __244 _267 _218 __729 _ 1291 __184 _290 _230 __ 704 ____ 1995

wxdude64 _______________160 _170 _236 __ 566 __190 _208 _154 __ 552 _ 1118 __ 226 _310 _302 __ 838 ____ 1956

Normal __________________134 _ 112 _ 190 __ 436 __ 118 _226 _146 __490 _ 926 __ 174 _310 _350 __ 834 ____ 1760

Persistence _____________ 282 _244 _282 __ 808 __ 070 _224 _174 __464 _ 1272 _ 042 _156 _256 __ 454 ____ 1726

Stormchaser Chuck (2/4)_68 _ 98 _ 128 __ 294 __ 110 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 110 __ 404 ___ 62 _ 190 _ 136 __ 388 ____ 792

Rhino16 (2/4) ____________ 50 _ 22 _ 36 ___ 108 __ 103 _118 _ 56 ___ 277 __ 385 ___ 48 _ 158 _ 156 __ 362 ____ 747

 

* (note: tracking RJay raw score before Feb late penalty of 47 pts ... at current scoring, would affect ranks by two positions)

-----------------------------------

 

 

Best forecasts

 

* tied wins (one per * ) ^ 3 forecasters tied (plus Consensus and normal -- 4 for SEA for 2024-03 and PHX for April) 

 

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL 

wxallannj ________________1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 2** __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*___1 ____ 2 ______ 0 

rainsucks _______________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 1 _ Feb 

DonSutherland1 _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 2* ___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 

___ Consensus _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 _____ 0 

RJay _____________________0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ____1 ______ 1 _ Mar 

so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 

hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2**__ 1*___ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 

RodneyS ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _ Jan

BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______0 

wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 

Tom _____________________ 0 ___ 1* __ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0  

Scotty Lightning _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 

Roger Smith _____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _Apr 

Normal __________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 

Stormchaser Chuck _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 ______ 0 

Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ______ 0 

 

EXTREmE  FORECAST  REPORT 

so far, a total of 22 qualified (18 for warmest, 4 for coldest) ... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0, Mar 4-0, Apr 4-2. 

* tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col.

(April provisional, to be adjusted)

FORECASTER _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr ___ TOTAL __ adj for ties

rainsucks ____________________ 2-0 _ 4-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-2* ___8-2 ___8.0 - 1.5

hudsonvalley21 ______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3**-0__ 4-0 ___ 3.0 - 0

wxallannj _____________________0-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-1 __ 3-1 ___ 2.0 - 1

Roger Smith __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 2*-1 ___ 3-2 ___ 2.5 - 2

Scotty Lightning _____________ 0-0 _ 2*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 2-0 ___ 1.5 - 0

RodneyS _____________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 ___ 2-0

wxdude64 ___________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0

DonSutherland1 ______________0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0

___ Normal ___________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 ___ 1-1

RJay _________________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-2 _ 0-0 ___ 1-2

BKViking _____________________ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-1

Stormchaser Chuck __________0-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-2

Tom, Rhino16, swh _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-0

 

NOTE: Table will require quality control, a few features are not yet updated totally. 

Est 2nd-3rd for it. 

[Roger Smith]

Quickly finished scoring updates, they will need quality control when I have a chance, scoring generally very high for April, several over 700 and two over 770.

Enjoying trip to Utah and will be flying back to BC on 4th.