April 2024 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ...

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

Deadline is 06z Apr 2nd (early Tuesday in EDT) 

(deadline is one day later in view of Easter weekend timing so regular entrants take note, you can enter or edit up to later deadline, no penalty ... I won't even look at forecasts until Tuesday morning.)

[rainsucks]

DCA: +3.5

NYC: +3.7

BOS: +3.5

ORD: +3.5

ATL: +2.5

IAH: +2.1

DEN: +2.4

PHX: +1.0

SEA: +1.5

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA: +3.1

NYC: +4.2

BOS: +4.1

ORD: +3.2

ATL: +2.1

IAH: +2.6

DEN: +2.7

PHX: +2.3

SEA: +2.9

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

1.5         1.0         1.0        1.5          2.0      2.0       2.0       2.0       1.5

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

1.5         1.5         1.2        1.7        0.3      0.0        0.5       -0.8       0.8

[so_whats_happening]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+1.3     +1.6    +2       +2.6     +1    +.8       +.8      0      +.4

 

Happy Easter Everyone. Wanted to get this done before Vacation starts.

[Tom]

DCA: +1.6

NYC: +1.8

BOS: +1.8

ORD: +2.1

ATL: +1.2

IAH: +1.5

DEN: +0.9

PHX: +0.6

SEA: +0.2

[wxallannj]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+2.2   +2.4    +2.6    +2.8    +2.5   +1.2   +2.4    +0.5   -0.5 

[Roger Smith]

+2.0 _ +2.2 _ +2.5 _ +2.3 _ +2.1 _ +2.8 __ +2.8 _ +1.0 _ +0.2

In case you didn't look at opening post, deadline is one day later ... you can edit already posted forecasts to 06z 2nd, and enter (no penalty) up to later deadline.

Will send a note to anyone not in by 06z. 

[bkviking]

DCA: +1.5

NYC: +1.6

BOS: +1.5

ORD: +1.9

ATL: +1.0

IAH: +1.5

DEN: +0.2

PHX: +1.0

SEA: +0.9

[wxdude64]

DCA:  +1.1

NYC:  +1.0

BOS:  +1.0

ORD:  +1.0

ATL:  +0.1

IAH:  +0.1

DEN:  +0.6

PHX:  +0.2

SEA:  +0.9

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

-0.3       1.1         0.9        -0.1      -0.2      1.1         0.6       -1.9      -0.2

[Rjay]

DCA: +2.0

 

NYC: +2.0

 

BOS: +2.0

 

ORD: +2.0

 

ATL: +1.0

 

IAH: +1.0

 

DEN: +1.0

 

PHX: 0.0

 

SEA: 0.0

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for April 2024 

 

FORECASTER _________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

rainsucks ______________________________+3.5 _ +3.7 _ +3.5 ___ +3.5 _ +2.5 _+2.1 ___ +2.4 _+1.0 _+1.5

hudsonvalley21 ________________________+3.1 _ +4.2 _ +4.1 ___ +3.2 _ +2.1 _ +2.6 ___ +2.7 _+2.3 _+2.9

wxallannj ______________________________+2.2 _ +2.4 _ +2.6 ___ +2.8 _ +2.5 _ +1.2 ___ +2.4 _+0.5 _-0.5

Roger Smith ___________________________+2.0 _ +2.2 _ +2.5 ___ +2.3 _ +2.1 _ +2.8 ___ +2.8 _+1.0 _+0.2

RJay ___________________________________+2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

Tom ____________________________________+1.6 _ +1.8 _ +1.8 ___ +2.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.5 ___ +0.9 _ +0.6 _ +0.2

___ Consensus _________________________+1.6 _ +1.7 _ +1.9 ___ +2.1 _ +1.2 _ +1.5 ___ +1.0 _ +0.4 _ +0.6

BKViking _______________________________+1.5 _ +1.6 _ +1.5 ___ +1.9 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +0.2 _ +1.0 _ +0.9

DonSutherland1 _______________________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 ___ +1.7 _ +0.3 __ 0.0 ___ +0.5 _ -0.8 _ +0.8

Scotty Lightning _______________________+1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.5

so_whats_happening ___________________+1.3 _ +1.6 _ +2.0 ___+2.6 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 ___ +0.8 __ 0.0 _+0.4 

wxdude64 ______________________________+1.1 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +0.1 _ +0.1 ____ +0.6 _+0.2 _+0.9

___ Normal _______________________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

RodneyS ________________________________-0.3 _ +1.1 _ +0.9 ___ -0.1 _ -0.2 _ +1.1 ____ +0.6 __-1.9 __-0.2

 

Persistence ____________________________ +4.3 _ +5.3 _ +3.7 ___+5.0 _+3.2 _+2.8 ___ -0.2 _ -1.2 _ +0.1

==================

Color codes for warmest and coldest forecasts, Normal coldest for NYC, BOS, IAH, DEN. 

[Roger Smith]

At the halfway point updated to Apr 24 ... anomalies and projections ...

 

___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

______ (15d anom) ________+2.9 _ +3.3 _ +1.6 ___ +3.9 _ +1.9 _ +3.7 ___ +4.8 _ -2.7 _ -0.6

______ (24d anom) ________+2.3 _ +2.0 _ +0.9 ___ +2.4 _ +1.9 _ +2.6 ___ +2.9 _ +0.9 _ -0.3

 

16 ___(p30d anom) _______+1.5 _ +2.0 _ +0.5 ___ +3.0 _ +1.5 _ +3.5 ___ +4.0 __ 0.0 _ -1.0

25 ____(p30d anom) _______+2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 ___ +3.0 _ +2.0 _ +3.5 ___ +3.0 __+1.0 _ -0.5

 

(Apr 16) _ Projections are based on a rather cool second half pattern in east and PAC NW, very warm southwest US to Texas, continued warm DEN)

(Apr 25) _ Projections updated, only a few slight changes.

 

Apr 15 _ Updates to snowfall contest will appear later (noted in last table posted in last month's contest thread).

(a few increases since 1st Apr for 9.8 BOS, 22.2 ORD, 23.5 DTW, 71.3 BUF, 38.3 DEN, 60.8 BTV)

By Apr 24 ... DEN 44.6 (no other changes)

 

[Roger Smith]

 

Preliminary scoring estimates for April 2024

_ based on latest projections in previous post _

 

(Apr 24 est) _________________________________+2.0 _+2.0 _+1.0 ____ +3.0 _+1.5 _+3.5 __________ +3.0 _+1.0 _-0.5

FORECASTER _________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA_west ___ TOTAL

rainsucks ______________________________ 70 _ 66 _ 50 __ 186 __ 90 _ 90 _ 72 __ 252 _ 438 _ 88 _100 _ 60 __ 248 ____ 686

hudsonvalley21 ________________________ 78 _ 56 _ 48 __ 182 __ 96 _ 98 _ 82 __ 276 _ 458 _ 94 _ 74 _ 32 __ 200 ____ 658

wxallannj ______________________________ 96 _ 92 _ 68 __ 256 __ 96 _ 90 _ 54 __ 240 _ 496 _ 88 _ 90 _100 __ 278 ____ 774

Roger Smith ___________________________100 _ 96 _ 70 __ 266 __ 86 _ 98 _ 86 __ 270 _ 536 _ 96 _100 _ 86 __ 282 ____ 818

RJay ___________________________________100 _100 _80 __ 280 __ 80 _ 80 _ 50 __ 210 _ 490 _ 60 _ 80 _ 90 __ 230 ____ 720

Tom ____________________________________92 _ 96 _ 84 __ 272 __ 82 _ 84 _ 60 __ 226 _ 498 _ 58 _ 92 _ 86 __ 236 ____ 734

___ Consensus _________________________92 _ 94 _ 82 __ 268 __ 82 _ 84 _ 60 __ 226 _ 494 _ 60 _ 88 _ 78 __ 226 ____ 720

BKViking ______________________________ 90 _ 92 _ 90 __ 272 __ 78 _ 80 _ 60 __ 218 _ 490 _ 44 _100 _ 72 __ 216 ____ 706

DonSutherland1 _______________________ 90 _ 90 _ 96 __ 276 __ 74 _ 66 _ 30 __ 170 _ 446 _ 50 _ 64 _ 74 __ 188 ____ 634

Scotty Lightning _______________________90 _ 80 _100 __ 270 __ 70 _100 _ 70 __ 240 _ 510 _ 80 _ 80 _ 60 __ 220 ____ 730

so_whats_happening __________________86 _ 92 _ 80 __ 258 __ 92 _ 80 _ 46 __ 218 _ 476 _ 56 _ 80 _ 82 __ 218 ____ 694 

wxdude64 _____________________________82 _ 80 _100 __ 262 __ 60 _ 62 _ 32 __ 154 _ 416 _ 52 _ 84 _ 72 __ 208 ____ 624

___ Normal _____________________________60 _ 60 _ 80 __ 220 __ 40 _ 60 _ 30 __ 130 _ 350 _ 40 _ 80 _ 90 __ 210 ____ 560

RodneyS _______________________________54 _ 82 _ 98 __ 234 __ 38 _ 56 _ 52 __ 146 _ 380 _ 52 _ 42 _ 94 __ 188 ____ 568

 

Persistence ____________________________54 _ 34 _ 46 __ 134 __ 60 _ 76 _ 86 __ 222 _ 356 _ 36 _ 56 _ 88 __ 180 ____ 536

 

=====================

 

Extreme forecasts

_ BOS (if below +1.0) would be a win for RodneyS with coldest forecast (+0.9), and a loss for Normal (if above +0.4). RodneyS cannot be in a contest loss position against Normal (shares a win for +0.4 or below) but would be at +1.0 against wxdude and Scotty. At +1.1 or above, BOS no longer qualifies. 

_ ORD (if +3.0) would be a win for hudsonvalley21 (+3.2) and wxallannj (+2.8) and a loss for rainsucks (+3.5). At +3.1 to +3.3 wxallannj drops out of shared win, at +3.4 or above rainsucks has a win (no losses). At +2.9 or below, ORD does not qualify (third forecast would have top score).

_ IAH (if +3.5 or any value +2.7 or above) would be a win for Roger S (+2.8), shared with hudsonvalley21 at +2.7 ... becomes a win-loss at +2.6 and drops out of qualifying below +2.4. 

_DEN (if +3.5 or any value +2.7 or above) would be a win for Roger S (+2.8), shared with hudsonvalley21 at +2.7 ... becomes a win-loss at +2.6 and drops out of qualifying below +2.4. 

_SEA (if -1.0 or any value -0.4 or below) would be a win for wxallannj (-0.5), if -0.3 to -0.1 becomes a win for RodneyS and a loss for wxallannj, at -0.1 shared win w RJay and Normal, at 0.0 or above does not qualify).

 

So ... no guarantee preliminary scoring will be accurate but range is not great so anyone could end up tops, we'll revisit on or about April 30.

Just a note, will be on a two-week wilderness sortie (limited internet access) Apr 22 to first week of may, could be a bit slow getting to scoring and will be posting a new contest before usual time, will ask one of you to mind store during time away).

It may be a few days into next cycle before I can post an annual scoring update or adjust scores above, don't know yet. 

[hudsonvalley21]

Have a great time on your sortie.

[Roger Smith]

<<<< ===[]===[] .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-Apr 2024 ==== ..........[]===[]=== >>>> 

<<<< .... .... ... ... April scoring will be adjusted, so annual scoring will also be revised end of April ... ... .... .... >>>>

 

wxallannj _______________ 292 _276 _310 __ 878 __246 _312 _204 __762 _1640 __288 _364 _354 _1006____ 2646

rainsucks _______________346 _360 _292 __998__ 243 _270 _220 __ 733 _1731 __168 _306 _296 __ 770 ____ 2501

___ Consensus _________ 274 _248_292 __814 __266_292 _204 __762 _1576 __202 _340 _336 __ 876____ 2452

DonSutherland1 ________290 _290 _310 __ 890 __ 284 _272 _166 __ 722 _1612 __242 _306 _274 __822 ____ 2434

RJay ____________________297 _300 _265 __ 862 __257 _286 _160 __ 703 _1565 __232 _305 _307 __844 ____ 2409 (2456)*

so_whats_happening ___ 264 _254 _304 __ 822 __279 _260 _152 __ 691 _1513 __238 _286 _330 __854 ____ 2367 

hudsonvalley21 _________272 _206 _248 __ 726 __254 _286 _236 __776 _1502 __210 _280 _310 __700 ____ 2202

BKViking ________________278 _248 _300 __ 826 __204 _264 _180 __ 648 _1474 __188 _332 _306 __726 ____ 2200

RodneyS ________________168 _234 _294 __ 696 __193 _220 _216 __ 629 _1325 __256 _280 _328 __864 ____ 2189

Tom _____________________224 _196 _242 __ 662 __198 _260 _192 __ 650 _1312 __ 164 _310 _324 __ 798 ____ 2110

Scotty Lightning ________220 _154 _204 __ 578 __148 _296 _222 __ 666 _1244 __ 208 _296 _342 __846 ____ 2090

Roger Smith _____________230 _204 _152 __ 586 __244 _267 _204 __715 _ 1301 __182 _294 _242 __ 718 ____ 2019

wxdude64 _______________166 _168 _252 __ 586 __190 _212 _140 __ 542 _ 1128 __ 220 _326 _314 __ 860 ____ 1988

Normal __________________140 _ 110 _ 174 __ 444 __ 118 _230 _132 __480 _ 924 __ 168 _306 _362 __ 836 ____ 1760

Persistence _____________276 _246 _298 __ 820 __ 070 _220 _160 __450 _ 1270 _ 036 _152 _268 __ 456 ____ 1726

Stormchaser Chuck (2/4)_68 _ 98 _ 128 __ 294 __ 110 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 110 __ 404 ___ 62 _ 190 _ 136 __ 388 ____ 792

Rhino16 (2/4) ____________ 50 _ 22 _ 36 ___ 108 __ 103 _118 _ 56 ___ 277 __ 385 ___ 48 _ 158 _ 156 __ 362 ____ 747

 

* (note: tracking RJay raw score before Feb late penalty of 47 pts ... at current scoring, would affect ranks by two positions)

-----------------------------------

 

 

Best forecasts

 

* tied wins (one per * ) ^ 3 forecasters tied (plus Consensus and normal -- SEA for 2024-03) 

__ not yet updated for April for any locations or regions __

 

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL 

wxallannj ________________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*___0 ____ 1 ______ 0 

rainsucks ________________2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 1 _ Feb 

DonSutherland1 _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 

___ Consensus _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 _____ 0 

RJay _____________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ____1 ______ 1 _ Mar 

so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 

hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 

RodneyS ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _ Jan

BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______0 

wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 

Tom _____________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0  

Scotty Lightning _________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 

Roger Smith _____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 

Normal __________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ______ 0 

Stormchaser Chuck _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 ______ 0 

Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ______ 0 

 

EXTREmE  FORECAST  REPORT 

so far, a total of 21 qualified (17 for warmest, 4 for coldest) ... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0, Mar 4-0, Apr 3-2. 

* tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col.

(April provisional, to be adjusted)

FORECASTER _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr ___ TOTAL __ adj for ties

rainsucks ____________________ 2-0 _ 4-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-1 ___ 8-1

wxallannj _____________________0-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-0 __ 3-0 ___ 2.0 - 0

Roger Smith __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 2-0 ___ 3-1

Scotty Lightning _____________ 0-0 _ 2*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 2-0 ___ 1.5 - 0

RodneyS _____________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 ___ 2-0

hudsonvalley21 ______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0___ 2-0 ___ 1.5 - 0

wxdude64 ___________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0

DonSutherland1 ______________0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 1-0

___ Normal ___________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 ___ 1-1

RJay _________________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-2 _ 0-0 ___ 1-2

BKViking _____________________ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-1

Stormchaser Chuck __________0-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-2

Tom, Rhino16, swh _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-0