michsnowfreak Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said: Toronto is at 26” which is right now the 7th least snow season. Assuming we get about 2” more it would keep it right about top 10 The east end and a bit further north GTA is probably around 30” but no official airport measurements Hamilton and west end GTA got wrecked this year. Top 5 worst snow season and sitting at 16” at Hamilton airport The last few years the snow-rain line has been about 25 miles further south so GTA has been getting good winters but Rochester and them screwed. This year the rain snow line moved a bit further north so the city is now separated as the eastern suburbs doubled the western suburbs Detroits northern suburbs hve a bit of a micro climate for heavier snowfall due to elevation. Particularly with LES & borderline events. Some years it's more influential than other years when you get a lot of borderline events. A great example would be this January 12th. The heart of the metro area got about 4-5 inches of 5:1 ratio snow, but the elevated northern suburbs got 8-9 inches with the same amount of liquid equivalent. It would be great to have snow measurements from Detroit city Airport, but essentially that is nothing more than an unmanned asos, so the only actual reports to come out of Detroit proper since the late 1960s are spotter/coop reports. Since it juts east into the Lake/River, the city proper and northeast into SE macomb County is one of the worst spots in the area for snow overall, so DTW in the suburbs gets a little bit more (even though they are South and West of the city) and would be more representative of the area (probably why they became the official site in 1966). However, when you get a few events throughout a season where the city gets noticeably more (and Mar 22 is an extreme example), I would imagine DTW only averages a few inches more annually. The last 2 winters have been very North to South oriented in the region. DTW has more than doubled Toledo's snowfall each of the last 2 winters, and detroit's northern suburbs have handily had more than DTW. Law of averages says big Ohio Winter probably coming within a few years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Detroits northern suburbs hve a bit of a micro climate for heavier snowfall due to elevation. Particularly with LES & borderline events. Some years it's more influential than other years when you get a lot of borderline events. A great example would be this January 12th. The heart of the metro area got about 4-5 inches of 5:1 ratio snow, but the elevated northern suburbs got 8-9 inches with the same amount of liquid equivalent. It would be great to have snow measurements from Detroit city Airport, but essentially that is nothing more than an unmanned asos, so the only actual reports to come out of Detroit proper since the late 1960s are spotter/coop reports. Since it juts east into the Lake/River, the city proper and northeast into SE macomb County is one of the worst spots in the area for snow overall, so DTW in the suburbs gets a little bit more (even though they are South and West of the city) and would be more representative of the area (probably why they became the official site in 1966). However, when you get a few events throughout a season where the city gets noticeably more (and Mar 22 is an extreme example), I would imagine DTW only averages a few inches more annually. The last 2 winters have been very North to South oriented in the region. DTW has more than doubled Toledo's snowfall each of the last 2 winters, and detroit's northern suburbs have handily had more than DTW. Law of averages says big Ohio Winter probably coming within a few years. I was interested to see the distance between the two and it makes sense. Especially this season. Toronto regions western suburbs are 60 miles away from the eastern suburbs. Same distance as downtown Detroit to downtown Toledo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Lighter snows so far, have now turned into a steady snow. Grass is getting covered. Winds still light. Snow totals have been scaled back by 1-2", 12-18" instead of 14-19", and winds have been as well. Expecting up to 45 mph, instead of 50-55 mph. That's ok, as less of a chance for power outages. So we'll see how well the new forecast pans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Sun starting to set, heavy returns incoming upstream. This is where we start stacking flake efficiently. It’s been steadily snowing all afternoon but probably only 2.5” accumulation. It’s been an awesome day of watching the snowfall with my kid. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Sun starting to set, heavy returns incoming upstream. This is where we start stacking flake efficiently. It’s been steadily snowing all afternoon but probably only 2.5” accumulation. It’s been an awesome day of watching the snowfall with my kid. That band moving up from the south is no joke. Should be fun to watch it when it gets here. It had some thundersnow for a while down by Rochester. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 35 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said: That band moving up from the south is no joke. Should be fun to watch it when it gets here. It had some thundersnow for a while down by Rochester. . Looked like some gravity waves down in the I-90 corridor heading north too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 52 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: Sun starting to set, heavy returns incoming upstream. This is where we start stacking flake efficiently. It’s been steadily snowing all afternoon but probably only 2.5” accumulation. It’s been an awesome day of watching the snowfall with my kid. Have about the same here, and stronger returns are starting to move my way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 3.0” at MSP as of 7pm. Classic spring snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 8.2” storm total as of 1am. Transitioning over to liquid precipitation now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 This is pure heart attack snow. Compacting into sludge and slush very quickly on paved surfaces. This is our biggest snowstorm of the year and I’m even happier about all the much needed moisture we are receiving. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: This is pure heart attack snow. Compacting into sludge and slush very quickly on paved surfaces. This is our biggest snowstorm of the year and I’m even happier about all the much needed moisture we are receiving. How good were the rates overnight? perhaps some more tonight as the low wraps up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 33 minutes ago, Allsnow said: How good were the rates overnight? perhaps some more tonight as the low wraps up There was a period of 1-2”/hr rates before the changeover but I was asleep. It’s absolutely puking snow in White Bear Lake. From downtown on north it’s all snow right now and the roads are getting covered again. Silver dollar size flakes. Home and the airport are reporting a mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 1 minute ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: There was a period of 1-2”/hr rates before the changeover but I was asleep. It’s absolutely puking snow in White Bear Lake. From downtown on north it’s all snow right now and the roads are getting covered again. Silver dollar size flakes. Home and the airport are reporting a mix. Some good returns moving north might be cooling the column enough for huge flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Some good returns moving north might be cooling the column enough for huge flakes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 It is snowing very hard at my house. Not very often we get all snow in 40-50 dbz returns around here. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 5 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: 8.2” storm total as of 1am. Transitioning over to liquid precipitation now. 2 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: This is pure heart attack snow. Compacting into sludge and slush very quickly on paved surfaces. This is our biggest snowstorm of the year and I’m even happier about all the much needed moisture we are receiving. 7-9" along the shore here, and yes, heavy, wet stuff. Forecast has snow to rain during the night here then transition back to light snow later tomorrow. Looks like some heavier bands are working their way north towards my area. Should be here in a couple hours. Forecast looks ok so far. I think we'll hit min guidance, but epic fail on winds. Gusts to 25 about it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Quite a late season rally for Minneapolis. We’ve moved to 18th least snowy season all time and should be outside the top 20 after the deformation snows tomorrow. 25.6” season to date. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OpenToSuggestions Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Hello! Long time lurker, possibly first time poster (if I have posted before it's been quite a long time ago ). Looking for best sites/resources for April 8 forecasts - we live in totality in Indianapolis but plan to be mobile at the last minute if the clouds do their typical April thing. I enjoy lurking here but don't have the skill set that y'all do for forecasting, any tips on where and what to watch to help make plans? Kind of expected there to already be an eclipse-day forecasting thread out here but I couldn't find one if it exists for the midwest/Ohio Valley region. Thank you in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 17 minutes ago, OpenToSuggestions said: Hello! Long time lurker, possibly first time poster (if I have posted before it's been quite a long time ago ). Looking for best sites/resources for April 8 forecasts - we live in totality in Indianapolis but plan to be mobile at the last minute if the clouds do their typical April thing. I enjoy lurking here but don't have the skill set that y'all do for forecasting, any tips on where and what to watch to help make plans? Kind of expected there to already be an eclipse-day forecasting thread out here but I couldn't find one if it exists for the midwest/Ohio Valley region. Thank you in advance! The eclipse is way too far away to have a forecast with that level of definition. I am sure next week a thread will be going for it. I am also waiting to narrow it in what I will do. You don't have to lurk. It is mostly friendly bantering with a bunch of weather geeks here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 3 minutes ago, Lightning said: The eclipse is way too far away to have a forecast with that level of definition. I am sure next week a thread will be going for it. I am also waiting to narrow it in what I will do. You don't have to lurk. It is mostly friendly bantering with a bunch of weather geeks here. I'm excited to follow the SPC mesoanalysis as well to monitor the shadow on the satellite and surface obs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 5 hours ago, Brian D said: 7-9" along the shore here, and yes, heavy, wet stuff. Forecast has snow to rain during the night here then transition back to light snow later tomorrow. Looks like some heavier bands are working their way north towards my area. Should be here in a couple hours. Forecast looks ok so far. I think we'll hit min guidance, but epic fail on winds. Gusts to 25 about it. With 7" imby this morning, another 3"+ has accum since then with a a good size band heading my way again in a couple hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 7 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: Quite a late season rally for Minneapolis. We’ve moved to 18th least snowy season all time and should be outside the top 20 after the deformation snows tomorrow. 25.6” season to date. This is an excellent example of two of my weather beliefs: 1) Its WAY too early to even discuss the likelihood of season futility being achieved in the midwest/Lakes in Dec, Jan, or Feb, no matter how bad it has been. 2) Season total snowfall is just 1 metric of a winter for a true winter weenie. Doesnt always tell the entire story. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 43 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: This is an excellent example of two of my weather beliefs: 1) Its WAY to earlier to even discuss the likelihood of season futility being achieved in the midwest/Lakes in Dec, Jan, or Feb, no matter how bad it has been. 2) Season total snowfall is just 1 metric of a winter for a true winter weenie. Doesnt always tell the entire story. Didnt come true in the eastern lakes for number 1 lol. Most of us on this side are going to be top 10 least snowy winter. Could a surprise April snowstorm happen and push some of us out of top 10 100%. I believe heavily in stats so way below average by mid winter means starting to need a miracle to make a comeback. I guess in a sports analogy kind of way you might be the fan that never gives up until the end of the game haha. If my teams down 27-7 starting the 4th Im typically tossing the towel because chances of winning are down to 10% or less. Teams do come back and win 30-27 but it's pretty rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: 1) Its WAY to earlier to even discuss the likelihood of season futility being achieved in the midwest/Lakes in Dec, Jan, or Feb, no matter how bad it has been. This season has reminded me how true this is for our region. I won’t give my final season grade until 4/15 at the earliest and this storm has likely bumped it up a half letter. WWA hoisted for a couple more inches of snow with the deformation band as we fall back below freezing overnight into tomorrow morning. There will be a rock solid glacier by Wednesday, which looks downright frigid for late March. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 18 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: This season has reminded me how true this is for our region. I won’t give my final season grade until 4/15 at the earliest and this storm has likely bumped it up a half letter. WWA hoisted for a couple more inches of snow with the deformation band as we fall back below freezing overnight into tomorrow morning. There will be a rock solid glacier by Wednesday, which looks downright frigid for late March. Ya, you guys get some monsters in spring. A lot of the prairies get some of their biggest storms in October and April. Calgary still averages 8-10" in April and 2-4" in May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Radar really chunky right now. Heavier band moved through, and could be a bit more heavier stuff with what I see coming up from the Twin Cities around sunset or so. Unless the temps rise enough for a mix/rn scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said: Didnt come true in the eastern lakes for number 1 lol. Most of us on this side are going to be top 10 least snowy winter. Could a surprise April snowstorm happen and push some of us out of top 10 100%. I believe heavily in stats so way below average by mid winter means starting to need a miracle to make a comeback. I guess in a sports analogy kind of way you might be the fan that never gives up until the end of the game haha. If my teams down 27-7 starting the 4th Im typically tossing the towel because chances of winning are down to 10% or less. Teams do come back and win 30-27 but it's pretty rare. I totally respect everyone having their own opinion/twist on. Its just me personally, Ive seen so many times you get a bad stretch in Dec up to mid-Jan and the word "futility" (which I loosely think of as top 5) starts popping up, then we end up with average to above average snowfall. And thats also why I say numbers are just one aspect of the story of a winter. Detroit is at 23.5", which is 18th least snowy winter, and just 0.7" would knock us down to #20 and 1.7" knock us out of the top 20, and thats easily doable. Doesnt mean it was an enjoyable winter at all, just means that quite a few winters saw less snow fall. A look at this funky snow season at DTW - since 1880 October - 11th snowiest out of 144 November - 64th snowiest out of 144 December - 2nd least snowy out of 144 January - 27th snowiest out of 144 February - 20th least snowy out of 144 March - 12th least snowy out of 144 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Pouring pretty nicely, up to 0.43" already. Should get over an inch with this which is pretty welcome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 26 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I totally respect everyone having their own opinion/twist on. Its just me personally, Ive seen so many times you get a bad stretch in Dec up to mid-Jan and the word "futility" (which I loosely think of as top 5) starts popping up, then we end up with average to above average snowfall. And thats also why I say numbers are just one aspect of the story of a winter. Detroit is at 23.5", which is 18th least snowy winter, and just 0.7" would knock us down to #20 and 1.7" knock us out of the top 20, and thats easily doable. Doesnt mean it was an enjoyable winter at all, just means that quite a few winters saw less snow fall. A look at this funky snow season at DTW - since 1880 October - 11th snowiest out of 144 November - 64th snowiest out of 144 December - 2nd least snowy out of 144 January - 27th snowiest out of 144 February - 20th least snowy out of 144 March - 12th least snowy out of 144 Yep, and to be fair you guys out west seem to have crazy low lowest snowfall. For example Ottawa is at 45” and it’s one of their least snowy winters ever so if Ottawa is at 15” come mid January to early February it makes sense for them to start talking about futility You guys out west I think you mentioned are 12”. So I see why talking about it early is pointless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Coastal cities with 0-2” worst season can’t really talk about it until April haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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