Itryatgolf70 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: That would be akin to what happened in Feb. 2015. Weaker niño then so I guess it is possible now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 7 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: Weaker niño then so I guess it is possible now. The odd thing that time was the NAO was positive. There was a huge PNA Ridge, -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: The odd thing that time was the NAO was positive. There was a huge PNA Ridge, -EPO. I just hope we can get into some type colder pattern in February and stormier as well faster than some think. It's fun tracking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 8 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: The odd thing that time was the NAO was positive. There was a huge PNA Ridge, -EPO. Exactly what the Weeklies look like this afternoon for that time frame. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Interestingly, the CFSv2 seasonal has recently been less than enthusiastic about Feb. However, it threw this out this morning. If that is with a warm start for week 1, then that is signaling a pretty frigid second half of the month. This map looks extremely similar to the current time period we are in. Very interesting in deed.. Great info as always Carver and thank you for the nod. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 34 minutes ago, Met1985 said: This map looks extremely similar to the current time period we are in. Very interesting in deed.. Great info as always Carver and thank you for the nod. Can I extrapolate from the discussion that we are saying that there is a chance we could do this all over again in February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 7 minutes ago, weathertree4u2 said: Can I extrapolate from the discussion that we are saying that there is a chance we could do this all over again in February? From the Map that carver posted I'd say there is a good chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 7 minutes ago, Met1985 said: From the Map that carver posted I'd say there is a good chance. I am in as long as we dont have snow on the ground for as many consecutive days as this go round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, weathertree4u2 said: Can I extrapolate from the discussion that we are saying that there is a chance we could do this all over again in February? Last two weeks of Feb...that is what we are saying is possible. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Well next week looks plenty wet with rain. Low level places could have some flooding issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Matthew70 said: Well next week looks plenty wet with rain. Low level places could have some flooding issues. Definitely a concern, especially closer to the Gulf Coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 Both GEFS and EPS have around a 3" .qpf mean, most of it falling Wed - this upcoming weekend. I'm kind of ready to wash the brine and scuz snow/ ice off the roads. I wouldn't be surprised though if we have some snow piles in parking lots until the next pattern window after the first week in Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 Another thing that's pretty unlikely IMO, but has a smidge of ensemble support and occasional OP runs is that as this moisture feeds starts to wind down next weekend, some northern stream energy tries to phase with the last STJ shortwave as it kicks out. 12z CMC from yesterday probably shows the upside: But there are a few of EPS and GEFS members that see it too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 Also, was just looking at the RMM plots this AM and man the MJO made a big jump into higher amplitude: Here is the plot I posted a couple of days ago: Here is this mornings: That's a pretty high amplitude and the GEFS even has a member propagating into off the charts territory in 7 There is some convection trying to push into the Western Pac, but in all honesty, this image is straight up the La Nina tropical Pac look we've mostly had for several years now. Earlier in the winter, even when we had some of the more unfavorable phases, we at least had some convection near the dateline : The above image is from Dec 10, when the MJO was in a similar phase, but at a lower amplitude: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Is there a good link to read up on how the mjo affects weather, I've heard it mentioned for a while but never really read into it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 FWIW The Extended GEFS from Thursday 1-18 wanted to form another glacier after Feb 8th. This mornings run has backed off the glacier but still has snow chances around the same time frame in parts of the tn valley The control is warmer than the ensemble average for mid month Feb, pretty big difference. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 18 minutes ago, Knoxtron said: FWIW The Extended GEFS from Thursday 1-18 wanted to form another glacier after Feb 8th. This mornings run has backed off the glacier but still has snow chances around the same time frame in parts of the tn valley The control is warmer than the ensemble average for mid month Feb, pretty big difference. I cannot recall, but, were we getting the same indication three weeks ago for the current time period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 55 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: Is there a good link to read up on how the mjo affects weather, I've heard it mentioned for a while but never really read into it Here is a pretty good one: https://www.worldclimateservice.com/2021/09/20/madden-julian-oscillation/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 12 minutes ago, weathertree4u2 said: I cannot recall, but, were we getting the same indication three weeks ago for the current time period? We managed to get a loop back into 2 which delayed the onset of forecasted warmth. The upcoming warm spell was delayed by about ten days due to that. The overall progression is the same, but ended up being slower. We aren’t going to dodge the MJO warm phases this time around. It is also pretty normal to get a big warmup after a big cold shot like this. In fact, it is not uncommon for winter to end after big cold shots like this. For now, I think winter takes about a 3 week break and maybe 4. I would not be surprised to see winter depart though. However, with phase 8 looming in mid Feb...should be one more (3) week window for winter. Still, keep an eye out for the time frame just before Jan 31 or just after....very small but decent window for a storm if we can get energy into the pattern then. Look for a storm to eject almost due northward then. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 What we are dealing with right now is a quickly eroding El Niño. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: We managed to get a loop back into 2 which delayed the onset of forecasted warmth. The upcoming warm spell was delayed by about ten days due to that. The overall progression is the same, but ended up being slower. We aren’t going to dodge the MJO warm phases this time around. It is also pretty normal to get a big warmup after a big cold shot like this. In fact, it is not uncommon for winter to end after big cold shots like this. For now, I think winter takes about a 3 week break and maybe 4. I would not be surprised to see winter depart though. However, with phase 8 looming in mid Feb...should be one more (3) week window for winter. Still, keep an eye out for the time frame just before Jan 31 or just after....very small but decent window for a storm if we can get energy into the pattern then. Look for a storm to eject almost due northward then. I believe I got my seasonal total in one storm so I would be good if we broke warm the rest of the season honestly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 48 minutes ago, weathertree4u2 said: I cannot recall, but, were we getting the same indication three weeks ago for the current time period? Yeah I gotta defer to the experts above haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, jaxjagman said: How do I read this graph? No expert like yourself lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I hope we don't have dry cold if it does get cold again lol. I like as many opportunities as we can get. Just hope we don't squander February 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, weathertree4u2 said: I believe I got my seasonal total in one storm so I would be good if we broke warm the rest of the season honestly I was thinking that just a minute ago. I think many (besides the foothills and Chattanooga and TRI) have their seasonal totals. I am about halfway there. I truly don't believe that was the last week of snowy weather. I do, however, think that was our worst week of winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I was thinking that just a minute ago. I think many (besides the foothills and Chattanooga and TRI) have their seasonal totals. I am about halfway there. I truly don't believe that was the last week of snowy weather. I do, however, think that was our worst week of winter. I was just thinking about that earlier today. Right now I’m sitting at almost 9.25in on the year. That would be slightly over the seasonal average on the new totals, but shy by about an inch and a half or so on the old totals. This week has really, pretty much been “deep winter” at least for my area. I have not been above freezing since Sunday afternoon. Hit 32 yesterday but that was it. Doesn’t look like we’ll get any warmer through the weekend. So, yeah, I also don’t see any colder periods with even heavier snow than this week to come in this winter. I could be wrong, but it would be extraordinary if it happened. That said, I don’t think we have seen our last snowfall event of the winter. February could definitely bring a return to these conditions again, it’s just that I don’t see it having as much of a staying effect as this week. If it doesn’t, well we can look back and be thankful for this week bc it’s been many many years since we’ve had a week like this one during the winter. That alone pushes this winter into my favorite winters category! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said: How do I read this graph? No expert like yourself lol Its just my interpretation of where the MJO could/should be at as be head into Feb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 So, same rules for me as December for me. I am not going to be in here talking about the upcoming warm-up every day. By my best guess, Jan 24-Feb15 will be a true pattern change w/ much above normal temps. Then, we will try to squeak three weeks of winter from a time of the year which really doesn't want to do winter (of late)....Feb17 through the first week of March. The MJO jerked the rug out from under us for the first few weeks of Feb. To be clear, modeling has been adamant of the MJO going slowly through the warm phases before heading to 8. It is no surprise. However, that same modeling showed very cold temps during that warm MJO rotation, and that looks to be a massive error. So, we will pay the MJO toll....and fingers crossed, return back to tracking in about a month. We do have one window somewhere near Jan 31 which is an outside shot. Other than that, warm temps are on the horizon. So, unless you hear otherwise....I am anticipating warm temps. I will check back in some as the next colder stretch comes into focus(if it comes into focus). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I will add that the massive wild card is the SSW. If we see modeling go haywire...then we know we might be back in business a bit earlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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