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Pittsburgh, Pa Winter 2023-24 Thread.


meatwad
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It's ironic that the GFS and Euro have completely flipped positions.  The Euro went from amped Appalachian spine runner to suppressed, and the GFS went from suppressed to phaser coastal.  The Canadian is much closer to the GFS.

The Euro hangs back this fairly large piece of energy into southern B.C.  It eventually becomes the dominant piece of energy but stays lagged behind the SS and doesn't even drop down.  It rotates around the TPV in the NS and washes out before popping much later.

Going back, it looks it's because the GFS raises heights in that NW Canada area and cleans out an LP, some of which disappears, some phases into a low over Russia.  The Canadian and Euro both hold a piece of that energy and drop it into NA and strengthen it.

The GFS has continually weakened that piece.  The Canadian just did weaken it significantly between 0Z and 12Z.  The Euro has, unsurprisingly, strengthened it.  This could be the key cog in the entire mechanism.  How that piece of energy resolves, if it exists at all, etc.

We'll have to see once the cutter completes its cycle this weekend.

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Just now, Ahoff said:

7” is pretty good.  If that were the outcome, I don’t think we’d have too many complaints.

Agreed and this is a cold storm so I doubt 10-1 would be the ratio probably a little higher. Interestingly enough it started to phase with the northern energy close to Maine. Gotta keep an eye out on that. 

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I feel like maybe the GFS handled the last storm better than the others, so maybe some hope for early next week? Would like to see the Euro catch on to it as well then maybe it'll be game on. Still time yet like everyone is saying. It'll be interesting to see the upcoming trends on this one.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

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26 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said:

I feel like maybe the GFS handled the last storm better than the others, so maybe some hope for early next week? Would like to see the Euro catch on to it as well then maybe it'll be game on. Still time yet like everyone is saying. It'll be interesting to see the upcoming trends on this one.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk
 

Its certainly not like it used to be, if it was the Euro vs everything else you could still weight it 70 / 30 Euro. GFS is way improved now, so at least a reason to be optimistic.

The other good thing, if the GFS is more right, we have room for an earlier phase / more amped solution. 

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3 hours ago, jwilson said:

It's ironic that the GFS and Euro have completely flipped positions.  The Euro went from amped Appalachian spine runner to suppressed, and the GFS went from suppressed to phaser coastal.  The Canadian is much closer to the GFS.

The Euro hangs back this fairly large piece of energy into southern B.C.  It eventually becomes the dominant piece of energy but stays lagged behind the SS and doesn't even drop down.  It rotates around the TPV in the NS and washes out before popping much later.

Going back, it looks it's because the GFS raises heights in that NW Canada area and cleans out an LP, some of which disappears, some phases into a low over Russia.  The Canadian and Euro both hold a piece of that energy and drop it into NA and strengthen it.

The GFS has continually weakened that piece.  The Canadian just did weaken it significantly between 0Z and 12Z.  The Euro has, unsurprisingly, strengthened it.  This could be the key cog in the entire mechanism.  How that piece of energy resolves, if it exists at all, etc.

We'll have to see once the cutter completes its cycle this weekend.

It is odd they switched places, hopefully not a case of GFS being late to catch on.

Thanks for the analysis, haven't looked at the overall pattern vs trends. Will be good to watch that BC LP for early hints on 00z runs. 

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Tired so not gonna disect the GFS but it trended towards the Euro. Is it right we shall see. Cmc is a great hit but the GFS and EPS ensembles don't agree with it. Need to start seeing this trend back NW or the CMC is out to lunch. 

e1Cpzx6.png

 

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8 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Tired so not gonna disect the GFS but it trended towards the Euro. Is it right we shall see. Cmc is a great hit but the GFS and EPS ensembles don't agree with it. Need to start seeing this trend back NW or the CMC is out to lunch. 

e1Cpzx6.png

 

It’s back on the 6z GFS but yeah, basically either east or gone on the lesser models (ICON, UKMET).

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1 hour ago, TimB said:

Garden variety cold without snow on the ground. Nothing even interesting like -5 in the middle of the afternoon like the Christmas 2022 thing.

If you want snow you generally don't want severe cold anyways.

Not much clarity overnight, same possibilities still on the table from medium impact snowfall to nothing. All the ops and ens suites seem to be ocilating within that goal post still. 

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12 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

If you want snow you generally don't want severe cold anyways.

Not much clarity overnight, same possibilities still on the table from medium impact snowfall to nothing. All the ops and ens suites seem to be ocilating within that goal post still. 

If there’s not going to be snow on the ground, I’d rather at least have something interesting.

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Yeah, looks like the MLK window is now gone. Might get a few inches.
 

On a positive note if we do get 2 inches it might stick around a bit at least 

all in all though we are trending towards another awful winter. Still time to save it so maybe someone that knows more than me can look at the long range and see potential. That said we’ve had several windows that yielded basically nothing 

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37 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Nothing is set in stone yet. This is all gonna depend on the orientation and interaction with the TPV. 

Agree. Usually a compromise / blend of guidance works best. Just depends if we are like 60/ 40 GFS camp or Euro. If its Euro we won't be as happy. 

That said watch Euro come in with some phased bomb now. :lol:

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Euro is better but still not great. Maybe it's the beginning of a positive trend. It will be interesting to see the ensembles. I wouldn't expect too much from this but some cold 2-4 inches would go a long way. 

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1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

Euro is better but still not great. Maybe it's the beginning of a positive trend. It will be interesting to see the ensembles. I wouldn't expect too much from this but some cold 2-4 inches would go a long way. 

Its a good point. For reference the 00z EPS showed the main run at the very bottom of members. Lots of options showing more snow

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I'd prefer we trend in the direction of a more potent southern stream short wave for the 19-20th threat. We don't typically do well with Miller B's, those usually slam northeast of us. Overall, if we get minor accumulations from Tuesday and Friday I'll be pretty disappointed in wasting this NAO period without a big storm. I know that probably ruins the positive vibes from Today but I would think a NINO with a strong NAO block would be one of our best patters to cash in. 

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