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Pittsburgh, Pa Winter 2023-24 Thread.


meatwad
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5 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Yeah, we can toss this week.  Next week looks to be an interesting one.

We could see a bit this weekend too. The GFS suggests a couple inches from wraparound snows are possible. It does turn much colder Saturday afternoon, although I'm kind of doubtful the low stalls out for that long. May be too robust with the wraparound precipitation.

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Hate tossing weeks when there aren’t that many left, but hopefully something pans out. I’m confident that with all these storms and polar vortex pieces rolling through the US, we have a good shot at cashing in somewhere.

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Definitely tossing this week obviously with the warm Temps and flooding rains. Appears that we are under a wind advisory with winds up to 40mph and gusts up to 50. After that model guidance is all over the place. Might get lucky and get some wrap around snows but those are usually overdone. What looks promising is a period after the cutters and even a possible TPV invasion which would of course bring in cold and dry conditions. Who knoes sometimes you get some arctic squalls that are fun. Ensembles show signs of possible snow in the coming weeks but we have to get through some cutters first. Looks like our next period is the 16-17.

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Still plenty of winter left to cash, but you definitely hate tossing a week.

 

February shows possible phase 7 of the MJO which gives you this pattern. The MJO looks like it flies through right to phase 7,8 which are more favorable for winter weather.

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53 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Definitely tossing this week obviously with the warm Temps and flooding rains. Appears that we are under a wind advisory with winds up to 40mph and gusts up to 50. After that model guidance is all over the place. Might get lucky and get some wrap around snows but those are usually overdone. What looks promising is a period after the cutters and even a possible TPV invasion which would of course bring in cold and dry conditions. Who knoes sometimes you get some arctic squalls that are fun. Ensembles show signs of possible snow in the coming weeks but we have to get through some cutters first. Looks like our next period is the 16-17.

Still plenty of winter left to cash, but you definitely hate tossing a week.

February shows possible phase 7 of the MJO which gives you this pattern. The MJO looks like it flies through right to phase 7,8 which are more favorable for winter weather.

 

I'm not ready to toss out the storm this weekend, still has a shot to be weaker / further SE, maybe front end to slop type setup. Next storm after is probably better shot as we start to get some ridging in the west and cold air can come east along with the storm track.

Good to see the MJO is flying through the bad phases. Should keep any negative effect minimal and set us up for a reload in Feb.

Seems like we have some dice rolls, whether we hit on any who knows. Still better than last year at least having hope and interesting stuff to track. 

Now to go put some bricks in my garbage cans before the wind storm. :lol:

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Agree with you guys.

I'm still watching the possibility for MLK weekend.  All the ensembles are in agreement with a TPV lobe over on our side of the continent.  It's not quite in the 50/50 region, but it should - at least - provide ample cold and reduce any mixing concerns, although there's a wide range of possibilities from suppression to Apps runner.  The GEPS is a bit more elongated and stretched with the cold versus the GEFS and EPS.  The only other problem is the OP GFS, among others, wanting to retrograde all that energy back west underneath the NAO block.  We'd prefer it to slide east instead.

In theory, if we get the timing right between waves, it could still be good for us.  The GFS kind of gets there, but I question how high the ceiling might be for an event in that circumstance.  The progression of the wave is too fast to be historical, but maybe something moderately sized.

If you're big game hunting, you'll notice the NAO block recedes the following weekend (20th) and that TPV spills into the more ideal 50/50 region.  We are timing that with a western ridge popping up in the Spokane / Boise area.  Textbook KU setup on the field.  We will see if that look holds going forward as the preceding waves are completed.

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1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow, came in fast. PIT has had 2/3 of an inch of precipitation already in three hours.

I was talking to met on another board from around here and he mentioned that's the reason for the snow. The precip came way faster than expected. He said the winds look to be pretty nasty later but not as bad as out further east. 

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7 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Also, maybe can’t count out the weekend system.  Highs on Saturday are about 33 now down from upper 30s yesterday and 20s Sunday.

That's why I'm not ready to toss that one out as a rainy cutter, it has a better shot of at least being a redeveloper, and we should have a little better cold to work with ahead of it. 

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Obviously take with a grain of salt, but the weather app on the iPhone has next week very cold and a snowstorm Tuesday with 9” of snow falling and a high/low of 19/11.

Will change, but would be something to have a storm with temps that cold.

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22 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Obviously take with a grain of salt, but the weather app on the iPhone has next week very cold and a snowstorm Tuesday with 9” of snow falling and a high/low of 19/11.

Will change, but would be something to have a storm with temps that cold.

Interesting. The Weather Channel has this for Monday:

Watching a potential winter storm. Variably cloudy with snow showers. High around 25F. Winds WSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%. Snowfall around one inch.

Variably cloudy with snow showers. Low 14F. Winds W at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.

I will say I find more often that not that when they include that "Watching a potential winter storm" language, it means we get to watch a winter storm go somewhere else other than Pittsburgh.

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37 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Interesting. The Weather Channel has this for Monday:

Watching a potential winter storm. Variably cloudy with snow showers. High around 25F. Winds WSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%. Snowfall around one inch.

Variably cloudy with snow showers. Low 14F. Winds W at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.

I will say I find more often that not that when they include that "Watching a potential winter storm" language, it means we get to watch a winter storm go somewhere else other than Pittsburgh.

I haven’t seen that language that far out in awhile.

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39 minutes ago, TimB said:

I haven’t seen that language that far out in awhile.

The potential is there but way too far out honestly. This next cutter looks like it will probably be somewhere up through Ohio. Gfs is usually too progressive and Euro is usually too amped. 

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1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Interesting. The Weather Channel has this for Monday:

Watching a potential winter storm. Variably cloudy with snow showers. High around 25F. Winds WSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%. Snowfall around one inch.

Variably cloudy with snow showers. Low 14F. Winds W at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.

I will say I find more often that not that when they include that "Watching a potential winter storm" language, it means we get to watch a winter storm go somewhere else other than Pittsburgh.

TWC already hyping for a storm 6 days out...  We wonder why people get angry when storms don't hit.

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1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

1.29” of precipitation reported on my weather station so far today.

Another daily record at PIT. 1.25”. We’re slowly continuing to lose days that have never recorded an inch of precip.

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