Itstrainingtime Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Rgem was way too cold for this AM. It was...I only got down to 23.4 here, I think the map you posted yesterday for this morning showed lows about 10 degrees colder. However, the model has consistently undercut both forecasters and other guidance all winter and has often been the closest come verification time. Today was just a bad day. LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It was...I only got down to 23.4 here, I think the map you posted yesterday for this morning showed lows about 10 degrees colder. However, the model has consistently undercut both forecasters and other guidance all winter and has often been the closest come verification time. Today was just a bad day. LOL Got down to 19.4 in Mount Joy and 19.2 in York New Salem. It was the coldest night of the week so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: I looked at everything before coming in here and knew Bliz would be busy. Buckle up my friend, you've got a lot of work ahead of you this week and hopefully beyond! Yeah, it looks like we are about the head into some fun times pattern and trackin wise. of course we can find ways to fail....but could be a fun period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: Got down to 19.4 in Mount Joy and 19.2 in York New Salem. It was the coldest night of the week so far. That's a big difference in a relatively short area - I'll have to see what my son's place got down to. He lives very close to Hostetter's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 It got down to 17°F this morning. The mornings have been frigid this week. The sunshine has been therapeutic this week, as well. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It was...I only got down to 23.4 here, I think the map you posted yesterday for this morning showed lows about 10 degrees colder. However, the model has consistently undercut both forecasters and other guidance all winter and has often been the closest come verification time. Today was just a bad day. LOL It has teens for tomorrow Am as well (colder locations). I bet it is too low again but the suites staying above freezing are probably too high. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 12Z Icon seems a shade north at this point...the end result is not going to be great for PA even with a transfer at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 GFS has highs 55-60 for Friday for those following a record opportunity. The record high for Friday is 61 set waaaayyy back in 2023 and 62 for Sat set in 1960 with GFS getting very near this figure for Sat as well. The record max low for Sat is 45 which may also be in play as could Friday's 39 with MDT's penchant to be high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS has highs 55-60 for Friday for those following a record opportunity. The record high for Friday is 61 set waaaayyy back in 2023 and 62 for Sat set in 1960 with GFS getting very near this figure for Sat as well. The record max low for Sat is 45 which may also be in play as could Friday's 39 with MDT's penchant to be high. Nice thing is that if we do break record high temperatures at official terminals, we won't have to wait long to be informed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Nice thing is that if we do break record high temperatures at official terminals, we won't have to wait long to be informed. KTCC? Shorts weekend either way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, Bubbler86 said: KTCC? Shorts weekend either way. Well stated... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Well stated... Sunday's Max Min low of 40 also in place on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 13th low is slightly west and a tad farther north vs. 6Z at 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Much weaker/less phased low in Ohio at 135. Probably going to lessen the chances of cold air being pulled down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Dual Low in PA and VA at 141. Not going to work out this time. The low is a good 20mb higher in pressure and will just not be pulling down reinforcing cold for most of PA in this depiction. Going to need Blizz to fix this at HH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Dual Low in PA and VA at 141. Not going to work out this time. The low is a good 20mb higher in pressure and will just not be pulling down reinforcing cold for most of PA in this depiction. Going to need Blizz to fix this at HH. That low is in bad position. Even if we had artic air in place all it would be a bad ice storm Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 That low is in bad position. Even if we had artic air in place all it would be a bad ice storm Sent from my SM-G970U using TapatalkWhich we are long overdue for.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, Jns2183 said: That low is in bad position. Even if we had artic air in place all it would be a bad ice storm Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Yea, we would need that transfer to start a panel or two earlier and the primary to not get near Dubois. In my opinion the only way the 6Z worked was the low strengthening much sooner to our south which pulled in colder air as the air we have going in is not good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 PD taking shape and the NS and SS vorts are better aligned at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Huge potential here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Phase...really lack of.... ends up being just a little late for PD to really be a KU level storm but the orientation of the trough (not even really a trough as much as the SS flow) is better than 6Z so Southern PA gets more snow. The whole scene has fireworks written all over it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Huge potential here: 3 runs in a row on the Gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 3 runs in a row on the Gfs I also like the true artic cold after whatever happens with that system...highs on PD are in the low to mid 20's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Ukie is way north with next week. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Exactly 40 at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I also like the true artic cold after whatever happens with that system...highs on PD are in the low to mid 20's. The sad fact is that its 11+ days away and we just saw what happened to our Monday/Tuesday threat in less than 36 hrs. Hard to get excited this far out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie is way north with next week. Saw this and broke out into song... ...and now I have a bunch of familiar faces looking in my office wondering what in the hell is wrong with Mike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, mitchnick said: The sad fact is that its 11+ days away and we just saw what happened to our Monday/Tuesday threat in less than 36 hrs. Hard to get excited this far out As usual with me, just a PBP but good to at least see cold air in place vs. not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, mitchnick said: The sad fact is that its 11+ days away and we just saw what happened to our Monday/Tuesday threat in less than 36 hrs. Hard to get excited this far out Since @Bubbler86 likes to reference Ralph lately...another of Ralphie's favorite "instructions" is to "keep expectations in check" which applies here... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Saw this and broke out into song... ...and now I have a bunch of familiar faces looking in my office wondering what in the hell is wrong with Mike. That song has one of the funniest misheard lyrics ever, IMO. It perfectly fits too. The real lyric is Shes gone, Oh I, Oh I'd better learn how to face it....and lots of people think they are saying better learn how to bake instead of face it. As silly as that sounds, if she leaves you indeed better learn how to bake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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