Atomixwx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 You've been doing this long enough. Weenie rule #1 is hug ANY model that give you snow, then cherrypick for your wish list. I thought that even with those rules established, we still considered der iKon such a laughable model that it wasn't even given the benefit of "look at what this shows," except to point and laugh when it fails miserably. Now watch this be der iKon's NAM moment. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GFS 12z Kuch GFS 12z 10:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6-7" on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The Canadian is really the only one I know that is still pushing over a foot for large areas. That makes them the king for 6 hours :-) I mean, I'd take a foot, but the last four model runs or so have had me being from a position of "almost certainly warning criteria will verify" to "if this is it, I'd rather it just be sunny and cold, I have shit to do." So seeing this one is nice. It'll change as they always do. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Wxdavis5784 said: GFS 12z Kuch GFS 12z 10:1 Here is Kuch on Pivotal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12 Z Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 11 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: GFS is in a good spot but is such a swift mover it dampens totals a bit.... Edit: totals go up a wee bit more as snow showers linger through Sunday pattern always suggested this would be a quickish hitter with no deep troughing to help slow things down. I'll take my progressive 3-6 and be giddy at that. Beggars........ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Kuch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Maybe I am a total weenie, but I am liking the 12z Guidance... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 11 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Quite a bit more snow than the 6Z 6z seemed to be an outlier (right or wrong) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: One thing I’ve noticed on models starting last night was a pretty significant increase in precip intensity along and to the northwest of the R/S line. So while the storm is moving along quickly it seems the intensity could be decent. and for marginal areas, intensity is the way to the snowy white promise land. Words that live in infamy....we can overcome..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: I thought that even with those rules established, we still considered der iKon such a laughable model that it wasn't even given the benefit of "look at what this shows," except to point and laugh when it fails miserably. Now watch this be der iKon's NAM moment. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Iget ya. For me/others its all about consensus building and creating goalposts. Happy to see its on board for something. Thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said: 12 Z Canadian Definitely the "hug worthy model" . Nice to see nooners upping the % of a widespread event for many snow starved geeses (cause y'all LOVE geeses). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 High in a decent position for early next week front load though it is all washed away. Flooding would be an issue verbatim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 After general review of nooners, only worry I've got down here in LSV'ville is that 540's ticked north, and at 72hr out, still some subtle jogs left to decide winners and losers....Hoping that trend stops, but as many of us know, that is something that happens all too often. That said, there should be a decent amount of winners in our group (norther/westers). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: High in a decent position for early next week front load though it is all washed away. Flooding would be an issue verbatim. That is one wound up beast for next week - this is just through 7am Wednesday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: That is one wound up beast for next week - this is just through 7am Wednesday: Yea, I think it's a concern as modeled. Let's assume the Canadian's are right and much of PA gets 10-15" of snow....the next two days the temps are near or below normal all day then more snow comes followed by 2-3" of rain. Could have some roof issues as well as streets not being able to move water away fast enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, I think it's a concern as modeled. Let's assume the Canadian's are right and much of PA gets 10-15" of snow....the next two days the temps are near or below normal all day then more snow comes followed by 2-3" of rain. Could have some roof issues as well as streets not being able to move water away fast enough. Despite the area's first real winter threat of the season, CTP is already sounding the horn for next week: (and a warning to @canderson to go on high alert:) .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 03/00Z update...winter storm system for next Tue/Wed is fcst to be much stronger and track farther to the west - which puts mixed precip (snow-ice to rain transition) squarely in play. The other key impact with this storm will be strong winds with MSLP anomalies (sub 990mb) reaching 3-4SD below the mean. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, I think it's a concern as modeled. Let's assume the Canadian's are right and much of PA gets 10-15" of snow....the next two days the temps are near or below normal all day then more snow comes followed by 2-3" of rain. Could have some roof issues as well as streets not being able to move water away fast enough. I'm just glad we will be white this weekend. Whatever happens next week let it happen. Except for house damage. But at least white for a few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Despite the area's first real winter threat of the season, CTP is already sounding the horn for next week: (and a warning to @canderson to go on high alert:) .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 03/00Z update...winter storm system for next Tue/Wed is fcst to be much stronger and track farther to the west - which puts mixed precip (snow-ice to rain transition) squarely in play. The other key impact with this storm will be strong winds with MSLP anomalies (sub 990mb) reaching 3-4SD below the mean. I'll take a good front end dump and see it wash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I'm just glad we will be white this weekend.Sir, let's keep race out of this lolSent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Despite the area's first real winter threat of the season, CTP is already sounding the horn for next week: (and a warning to @canderson to go on high alert:) .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 03/00Z update...winter storm system for next Tue/Wed is fcst to be much stronger and track farther to the west - which puts mixed precip (snow-ice to rain transition) squarely in play. The other key impact with this storm will be strong winds with MSLP anomalies (sub 990mb) reaching 3-4SD below the mean. The triple play of 3 significant systems through Jan 15th for the Eastern half of the country is going to get lots of air play on the news. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Atomixwx said: Sir, let's keep race out of this lol Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk I was not sure if that post or his dump and wash post was going to be your next reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I was not sure if that post or his dump and wash post was going to be your next reply. I didn't see the front end dump and wash post. I saw "I'm just glad we're going to be white" and hit the quote button before the banners and hats started being doled out. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Sir, let's keep race out of this lol Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk HAHA!!! OK Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Storm 3 is a snowmageddon for much of PA on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Storm 3 is a snowmageddon for much of PA on the GFS. Show it. Let's confuse the shit out of any lurker by serving up three different storms' worth of model suites at the same time. It's Three Storm Monty time. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Atomixwx said: Show it. Let's confuse the shit out of any lurker by serving up three different storms' worth of model suites at the same time. It's Three Storm Monty time. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Okay. This is now the storm we are discussing.Edit: This is MLK Day. I don't have work. This better verify. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Ukie held 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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