Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 7 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: @Bubbler86You're speaking about a changeover (although not precisely where), but I'll assume SE LSV / Lanco. However, none of my precip-type maps show any changeover anywhere in this region for any period of this storm. Please specify where/what you meant regarding said changeover. Different model sites use different algorithm's for the precip type. Here is TT showing the changeover. Pivotal's maps do not show the same, but they decreased snow in this same area from the 0z run that was pretty much all snow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 21 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I think we're ok. There's enough model support for at least 4" at this range imho. 100% agree. Model support for at least a 4-6" storm if not more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Here is snapshot of the 6z and 12 z GFS Snowfall maps. Most of PA looks great, but I hate seeing the bleed... (Sorry for the 6z being on the right...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said: Here is snapshot of the 6z and 12 z GFS Snowfall maps. Most of PA looks great, but I hate seeing the bleed... (Sorry for the 6z being on the right...) It's ok, you're left handed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: It's ok, you're left handed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Gefs look pretty decent for next week's front end. Another 50 miles south or east and we're all rocking. As of now, some already are. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Different model sites use different algorithm's for the precip type. Here is TT showing the changeover. Pivotal's maps do not show the same but they decreased snow in this same area just the same. Weatherbell really didn’t send a changeover across the Mason-Dixon Line. I know the algorithm gets a rap for being snowy or whatever but that particular map is a 6hr frame and if you use a 3hr frame bulk of QPF is thru York/Lancaster by 111hr. Thermals at 850/925mb/surface are still fine at that point. At the 114 hr frame the 850mb 0 line is shaped pretty much like the changeover line on that TT map but the 850 temps are still within tenths of a degree of zero in that little rain area that intrudes into PA as are 925 and surface. So if there’s any heavier precip left between that 111-114hr frame there it’s probably going to be snow… albeit likely at reduced ratios. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Weatherbell really didn’t send a changeover across the Mason-Dixon Line. I know the algorithm gets a rap for being snowy or whatever but that particular map is a 6hr frame and if you use a 3hr frame bulk of QPF is thru York/Lancaster by 111hr. Thermals at 850/925mb/surface are still fine at that point. At the 114 hr frame the 850mb 0 line is shaped pretty much like the changeover line on that TT map but the 850 temps are still within tenths of a degree of zero in that little rain area that intrudes into PA as are 925 and surface. So if there’s any heavier precip left between that 111-114hr frame there it’s probably going to be snow… albeit likely at reduced ratios. Here is a skew-t from TT when it is showing rain in much of the LSV. Definitely model site differences in interpreting the data but the Kuch snow map on Pivotal does look like one that shows the southern parts of PA had mixing issues regardless of the preip maps so it is close. I do not have WB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Good info/map I just grabbed from the MA. NBM probabilities since we have been talking about the blend of models today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 16 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Weatherbell really didn’t send a changeover across the Mason-Dixon Line. I know the algorithm gets a rap for being snowy or whatever but that particular map is a 6hr frame and if you use a 3hr frame bulk of QPF is thru York/Lancaster by 111hr. Thermals at 850/925mb/surface are still fine at that point. At the 114 hr frame the 850mb 0 line is shaped pretty much like the changeover line on that TT map but the 850 temps are still within tenths of a degree of zero in that little rain area that intrudes into PA as are 925 and surface. So if there’s any heavier precip left between that 111-114hr frame there it’s probably going to be snow… albeit likely at reduced ratios. Great post. Like you , I looked at timestamps for periods in question and noticed much the same. Skew T's had me at 33 max and much qpf was already laid down, and column was close enough to not yet worry (but 700's to surface were scarily close). Even if I did end as drizzle/snizzle, I'd be happy to see an appreciable event. Mind you not much dissecting will matter at 4+ days out, and we should just be looking for consistency/trends to get hammered out right now, but it sure is fun to be seeing winter on the maps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 28 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Here is a skew-t from TT when it is showing rain in much of the LSV. Definitely model site differences in interpreting the data but the Kuch snow map on Pivotal does look like one that shows the southern parts of PA had mixing issues regardless of the preip maps so it is close. I do not have WB. Yea, that’s an isothermal layer from surface to about 850 thats essentially between the 32-33ºF range (highlighted for you). Light rates might be drizzle/freezing drizzle depending on surface temp, but moderate to heavy rates would likely be snow with that kind of skew T presentation. Here’s the 3-hr precip from 111-114. A couple tenths fall in parts of Lancaster in that timeframe, but the rest of LSV west of there is mostly done at that point. That’s the furthest north I’ve seen the GFS take the primary with its Miller B solutions. The low’s weak and the transfer is already occurring so it still kept most to all of the state snow but the other part of that equation is the best overall QPF in the frozen precip zone went deeper into central PA. Though I suppose there’s not a huge difference since everyone in here generally gets in that .75-1.00” range. Obviously one model run and a global model at that, but we are getting into the range we can start scrutinizing the details on these runs more. The high res stuff when we get to that range (NAM, HRRR, et al) is where we’re going to really hone on the thermals. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 One other note is that at 114 GFS is coldest a 500's while GEPS/GEFS are warmer. Gotta love the model drama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 16 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Yea, that’s an isothermal layer from surface to about 850 thats essentially between the 32-33ºF range (highlighted for you). Light rates might be drizzle/freezing drizzle depending on surface temp, but moderate to heavy rates would likely be snow with that kind of skew T presentation. Here’s the 3-hr precip from 111-114. A couple tenths fall in parts of Lancaster in that timeframe, but the rest of LSV west of there is mostly done at that point. That’s the furthest north I’ve seen the GFS take the primary with its Miller B solutions. The low’s weak and the transfer is already occurring so it still kept most to all of the state snow but the other part of that equation is the best overall QPF in the frozen precip zone went deep into central PA. Obviously one model run and a global model at that, but we are getting into the range we can start scrutinizing the details on these runs more. The high res stuff when we get to that range (NAM, HRRR, et al) is where we’re going to really hone on the thermals. Yea, it is not worth too much stress over worrying. Carlisle asked me where I saw it change to rain so I passed it on. This pivotal snow map is also indicative of precip issues near the M/D line. Those could definitely include super low ratio snow like you mentioned since this is a Kuch map. Those circled areas are common first fall area when losing one or more level. I am in the far left one so very familiar with the look. If you switch to a 10-1 map you do not see the same layered intrusion signatures vs. more elevation related differences. The meso's will tell the story like you said :-). Kuch 10-1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Yea, it is not worth too much stress over worrying. Carlisle asked me where I saw it change to rain so I passed it on. This pivotal snow map is also indicative of precip issues near the M/D line. Those could definitely include super low ratio snow like you mentioned since this is a Kuch map. Those circled areas are common first fall area when losing one or more level. I am in the far left one so very familiar with the look. If you switch to a 10-1 map you do not see the same layered intrusion signatures vs. more elevation related differences. The meso's will tell the story like you said :-).Kuch10-1 Look at that Kuch. MAG is the big winner if that verifies. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Fyi, seasonal trend says storm is not going to be weak. This one could be different from others over the last months, but we're in a strong Niño and that argues for another strong system. Just mho. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Remember: For some weird ass reason, the biggest storms tend to happen on weekends. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Checking in over lunch, the Weatherbell maps look much different for the LSV in a good way on the GFS & Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Remember: For some weird ass reason, the biggest storms tend to happen on weekends. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Get the snow shovels ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 0z Euro Run 12 Z hot off the press: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Well, with that vort right behind it pushing it along, it doesn't have the time to be a foot or more. May help for next week however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Fast movement also reduces the amount of warm air off the ocean can get involved, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said: 0z Euro Run 12 Z hot off the press: Parts of the MA lost over 1/2 foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Parts of the MA lost over 1/2 foot. Yep this is really becoming a PA snowstorm. Intense and quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Parts of the MA lost over 1/2 foot. Yeah. I am hoping the bleed stops and we inch the other way... Still early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Parts of the MA lost over 1/2 foot. I lost that much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, paweather said: Yep this is really becoming a PA snowstorm. Intense and quick. I think we are starting to worry a bit here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: I lost that much... Did not notice, sorry. I was looking at the areas that went down to 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 LNS lost 6.1" on the latest Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: LNS lost 6.1" on the latest Euro. SE LSV mixes on the Pivotal panels. Cannot blame TT for that one. It is after the big thump but surely holds down totals some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I have seen other talking about speeding things up. EC is snowing here (at least virga) around lunch on Sat now. A jump up of probably 3-4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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