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Central PA Winter 23/24


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1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Gentlemen, with a couple toddlers this is as late as Ive been up in ages and yeah maybe Ive had a little whiskey, but I gotta tell ya, Ive got no damn clue which way this is gonna break down here. Just gonna enjoy whatever thump we receive and be happy for snow. Again, only guarantee is Lancaster is the tightest gradient haha. See ya’ll in the mornin!

It’s a little late for ensembles, but it’s good to see the EPS bumping amounts up, especially for the LSV.

IMG_4150.png

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Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
315 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2024

PAZ011-012-017>019-025>028-034>036-045-049-050-056-057-059-063-
064-062015-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0001.240106T1300Z-240107T0300Z/
Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-
Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-
Cumberland-Adams-
Including the cities of Emporium, Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield,
Philipsburg, State College, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union,
Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg,
Lock Haven, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey,
Lebanon, Carlisle, and Gettysburg
315 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total accumulations of 6 to 8
  inches.

* WHERE...The Central Mountains of Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult, especially during the
  afternoon and early evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow will fall heavily at times
  between noon and 6 pm, with much lighter snow after 7 pm.
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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
315 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2024

PAZ011-012-017>019-025>028-034>036-045-049-050-056-057-059-063-
064-062015-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0001.240106T1300Z-240107T0300Z/
Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-
Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-
Cumberland-Adams-
Including the cities of Emporium, Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield,
Philipsburg, State College, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union,
Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg,
Lock Haven, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey,
Lebanon, Carlisle, and Gettysburg
315 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total accumulations of 6 to 8
  inches.

* WHERE...The Central Mountains of Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult, especially during the
  afternoon and early evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow will fall heavily at times
  between noon and 6 pm, with much lighter snow after 7 pm.

Good to see the bump up in amounts as we approach game time this morning.

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

CTP bumped up Expected snow totals for many.

IMG_4156.jpeg

You beat me to it, as I was going to post the same map. CTP put Tamaqua in an 8-12 lollipop in far eastern Schuylkill County. It'll be interesting to see if it verifies. 

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23/20 Is everyone excited for the snow? It's been awhile since most of us in Pa. got a storm of this magnitude. My biggest last year was 3", and for the season last year about 9". So I could get all of that in one shot today. Hopefully the storm delivers and doesn't fall apart and everyone will be happy. Happy shoveling!

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28/22 here.  Rgem is now one of the lower runs I just saw in running through stuff as it pushes rain up near the Poconos.   More snow in Lanco than Central PA.  Kind of weird.  Here is the latest HRRR which has getting into the MSV but stiff nice Kuch totals.  Most models have it changing pretty quick over here now.    I might go out and shovel when the changeover occurs just to get a shovel in.   GFS upped totals a bit in areas that do not change quickly.  Also, GFS showing a lot of freezing rain which is also weird with these thermals.

 

image.thumb.png.5b15c59279d0ba989e4dcfe8495b94e4.png

 

 

image.thumb.png.58eb9ef270f19489c35d61afc86eb92a.png

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14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's what all modeling was showing at this point. It consolidates as the day goes on.

I could of sworn it was more together then this. The broken mess was on its western edge. I've seen to many storms that never really came together. Hope I'm wrong 

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6 minutes ago, Ruin said:

I could of sworn it was more together then this. The broken mess was on its western edge. I've seen to many storms that never really came together. Hope I'm wrong 

If you keep worrying, your going to Ruin it for yourself.

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4 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Very nice 3k NAMing that the all of us, even the Lancaster crew will approve.

IMG_4152.png

 

IMG_4155.png

6z NAM for the win …. We can all only hope. 
Except for @Bubbler86 lol, it’s super weird how it has that little area around Rouzerville that gets so little. I’m sure that he would take one for the team.

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3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

6z NAM for the win …. We can all only hope. 
Except for @Bubbler86 lol, it’s super weird how it has that little area around Rouzerville that gets so little. I’m sure that he would take one for the team.

Different reasons in winter.  If we get a low coming out of the gulf that is always to my East, Rou will be one of the higher totals on here....but those south or southwest winds invade between the two mountain chains here.   Mountain living on the wrong side for app runners. 

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Good morning from Mt Top elev  1700 ft in Luzerne cty; Looks good for all areas here; for my area around 10 or so inches, I wish we all could get in on the snow ; rarely does that happen, many more chances in the pipeline. I know the disappointment, been thru it, yrs 2009-2010, 2010-2011; 2012=2013; we got clouds or flurries and Virginia, DC, maryland, Delaware, Jersey; LSV, SEPA; lehigh valley, I95; NYC; Long Island Southern NE; got burried. We are all snow lovers and want it every year. Mother Nature doesn't work that way. All this doesn't take away the disappointment, but mother nature will always balance out.  Patience is hard; lets not scare snow away. Good luck to all, anyway its all gone by Wednesday.

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Here is a some of the CTP discussion this morning in regard to mixing & change overs.

“very small (<=1") increase in snow totals has been made over a large portion of the area, but necessitated no further changes to the
going WWAs. York and Lancaster are still expected to turn to
plain rain in the evening as warm air flows in aloft and at the sfc. Some mix or even a turn to just rain is possible between Rte 30 and I-81, but generally late. Still expecting mainly/all snow for places along and north of Blue Mtn.”
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