Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[Sernest14]

nam looks more east with the low similar to 0z

[RVASnowLover]

9 minutes ago, Sernest14 said:

nam looks more east with the low similar to 0z

Yeah, too far south and east this run for RIC. 

[RVASnowLover]

Good run for SEVA though. Just not our storm in RIC.

[jlewis1111]

how is the nam snow map for 12z

[D-Money]

12z NAM

[jlewis1111]

1 minute ago, D-Money said:

12z NAM

this was at 6z lol 

[jlewis1111]

so will  see

[D-Money]

12z 3k NAM not doing it. 
FV3 not doing it as well, LP pushes east and precip gets sucked out to see. 

both runs get some bands in to the southside but it may not add to much due to the dry air. 
 

All in on the NAM! What could go wrong? 
 

[Conway7305]

Next storm  opportunity Feb 4th-5th. However I’ll be up in PA so will probably miss that one…lol 

[wasnow215]

6z Nam wasn't "onto something" it apparently was "on something". Lol-I think of the rest if the 12 Z doesn't change we're seeing dusting to maybe 2 inches far south areas of RVA

[JB Fins]

Yeah, we are finding all of our usual ways to fail.  

2 feet of snow becomes 2" sleet bomb - Check

2 feet of snow from coastal, suppressed - Check

But, still a memorable stretch of winter due to the cold.  

[wasnow215]

5 minutes ago, JB Fins said:

Yeah, we are finding all of our usual ways to fail.  

2 feet of snow becomes 2" sleet bomb - Check

2 feet of snow from coastal, suppressed - Check

But, still a memorable stretch of winter due to the cold.  

To have so much frozen over snow still here, is pretty amazing for this area four days later.

[D-Money]

12 ICON

[jlewis1111]

ICON north hahaha

[Deep Creek]

13 minutes ago, JB Fins said:

Yeah, we are finding all of our usual ways to fail.  

2 feet of snow becomes 2" sleet bomb - Check

2 feet of snow from coastal, suppressed - Check

But, still a memorable stretch of winter due to the cold.  

We’ve had multiple accumulating snows here this (meteorological) winter. Parts of the RIC metro are just about at average for our climate. We’ve had more than one season of being shut out or close to it in the last 10 years. The “big dog” snows just keep getting rarer. We do have ways to win with them, but I think this winter shows what our expectations should be.

[eaglesin2011]

Watch we will end up getting 1-3 tomorrow 

then

1-3 on Wednesday 

A nice little refresh of snow each time wouldn’t be the worst thing.

Or

Of course it could be nothing for the RVA area…lol

 

Defiantly still allot up in the air… Prob going to be painful to watch this on Radar tomorrow  but, I’m going to live and die on the 3-6 inch train for this first storm tomorrow here in Glen Allen…

I’m hoping for some good banding like the Nam this morning showed… 

[D-Money]

12z GFS good hit for southside/NE NC. North cut off line the same. But it does have more from the coastal in SE VA 

 

6Z to compare. 

[overcautionisbad]

1 hour ago, JB Fins said:

Yeah, we are finding all of our usual ways to fail.  

2 feet of snow becomes 2" sleet bomb - Check

2 feet of snow from coastal, suppressed - Check

But, still a memorable stretch of winter due to the cold.  

Not really. There have been plenty of cold stretches of winter with no snow.

[wasnow215]

3 minutes ago, D-Money said:

12z GFS good hit for southside/NE NC. North cut off line the same. But it does have more from the coastal in SE VA 

 

6Z to compare. 

This 12z GFS run looks more like the European model has most of the runs the last few days

[RVASnowLover]

5 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said:

Not really. There have been plenty of cold stretches of winter with no snow.

And then warm stretch with an inch of rain

[wasnow215]

7 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said:

Not really. There have been plenty of cold stretches of winter with no snow.

Over the last 20 years most of them have been ABOVE average temperatures for winter time. Last year was pretty good I believe as far as closer to average or below and 2014. The consistency of cold weather for the winter season including December is definitely different this year.

[JB Fins]

15 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said:

Not really. There have been plenty of cold stretches of winter with no snow.

Memorable is subjective.  I guess what I meant, is that this stretch of cold with snow on the ground, as it has been a while, not even 2015 cold snap lasted this long.

[overcautionisbad]

My expectation for tomorrow at this point is nearly nothing now. Maybe a dusting. I should have maintained my gut instinct I had earlier this week. That this may hit Hampton Roads some, but not us.

 

I'll admit to me what might be memorable is inches of solid ice on the ground for an entire week or more.

[wasnow215]

They haven't been huge jumps but most of the models have come a little further north west the last 24 hours

[ldub23]

2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

They haven't been huge jumps but most of the models have come a little further north west the last 24 hours

Lets see what  the euro  shows. RIC only  needs a small nw move by  tomorrow  am

[Rhino16]

Hopefully we can at least cover the grass again because it’s ugly after being smushed by the glacier.

[overcautionisbad]

This forecast seems reasonable for Richmond.

[ldub23]

Wakefield did  move the warnings further  NW

[Stormpc]

4 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Wakefield did  move the warnings further  NW

The northern extent of the precipitation field always seems to overperform and stretch further north and west than forecast.

Models are ever so slightly creeping further Northwest the last 24 hours. For the most part. We can still see more adjustment today into tonight

[ldub23]

16 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

The northern extent of the precipitation field always seems to overperform and stretch further north and west than forecast.

Models are ever so slightly creeping further Northwest the last 24 hours. For the most part. We can still see more adjustment today into tonight

Currituck may have a blizzard warning tonight