Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[overcautionisbad]

Ok, noone panic. Let's wait for 0z

[eaglesin2011]

https://www.weather.gov/akq/winter

 

[overcautionisbad]

[Sernest14]

I don’t understand everything showing minimal snow then that shows up on a blend model

[Ephesians2]

2 minutes ago, Sernest14 said:

I don’t understand everything showing minimal snow then that shows up on a blend model

the NBM is unfortunately broken. its ratios are wildly overstated - I know there have been discussions of 15-20:1 ratios, but the ratios the NBM uses at least on the weatherbell maps are like 40:1, 50:1, or even more in some situations

[eaglesin2011]

https://youtu.be/yj0nqFxF7H8

I’ll take it! Lol

& yes I’m being sarcastic 

[Sernest14]

16 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

the NBM is unfortunately broken. its ratios are wildly overstated - I know there have been discussions of 15-20:1 ratios, but the ratios the NBM uses at least on the weatherbell maps are like 40:1, 50:1, or even more in some situations

Just ChatGPT’d the map and it basically downgraded everything the nbm shows for this area.  Pretty interesting read.  Asked it what ratios are used and why it shows so high compared to many models tha show 0-1”

[migratingwx]

21 minutes ago, Sernest14 said:

I don’t understand everything showing minimal snow then that shows up on a blend model

17 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

the NBM is unfortunately broken. its ratios are wildly overstated - I know there have been discussions of 15-20:1 ratios, but the ratios the NBM uses at least on the weatherbell maps are like 40:1, 50:1, or even more in some situations

The problem is, it lags a cycle or so behind so it's using old data and still catching up. The 00z run should have lower totals around RIC based on trends.

[overcautionisbad]

Yeah something seems off with it

[Ephesians2]

3 minutes ago, migratingwx said:

The problem is, it lags a cycle or so behind so it's using old data and still catching up. The 00z run should have lower totals around RIC based on trends.

For RIC it has 7" of snow on 0.2" precip
But where it is REALLY broken is along the northwest fringe, as you can see there is basically no QPF but the NBM is still showing accumulating snow.

[eaglesin2011]

just say…

[ldub23]

Nam might  be an improvement

[Ephesians2]

5 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Nam might  be an improvement

Yes, slightly so. Not what we need in Central VA but it is so, so close. 

[eaglesin2011]

let’s go!   Back to 3-6 we go .. lol

[DJnVa]

20 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said:

Yeah something seems off with it

 

DT seemed on board with it...

[wasnow215]

49 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said:

How can a "blend of models" get higher totals than the model that shows the most snow lol. Makes no sense. It's like saying 0+2+0+4+1 divided by 5 equals 5

[ldub23]

2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

How can a "blend of models" get higher totals than the model that shows the most snow lol. Makes no sense. It's like saying 0+2+0+4+1 divided by 5 equals 5

Confession. I am the  one who actually puts  out the  NBM with a secret  snow  formula

[ldub23]

NAM  is a huge  improvement. gets  5-6 into SEVA and the  snow  line  has  moved alot NW to the doorstep of RIC

[chris624wx]

[ldub23]

1 minute ago, chris624wx said:

I think it was a miss for SEVA at 18Z

[Kevin Reilly]

3 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

I think it was a miss for SEVA at 18Z

Let the north trend begin with our number one model this year the NAM.  How far north will she go!??

Did the weather channel name this winter storm yet?  

[overcautionisbad]

[Berlin1926]

51 minutes ago, Sernest14 said:

Just ChatGPT’d the map and it basically downgraded everything the nbm shows for this area.  Pretty interesting read.  Asked it what ratios are used and why it shows so high compared to many models tha show 0-1”

I did that too and got scolded on the MA forum.  I asked for an interpretation of the latest NBM.  Interesting response.  Tempered nit cliff diving.h

[Sernest14]

6 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Let the north trend begin with our number one model this year the NAM.  How far north will she go!??

Did the weather channel name this winter storm yet?  

Needs to happen quick- running out of time

[overcautionisbad]

[overcautionisbad]

4 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

I did that too and got scolded on the MA forum.  I asked for an interpretation of the latest NBM.  Interesting response.  Tempered nit cliff diving.h

Yet they lap up AI models like fresh mac n cheese