JoMo Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 Such a beast of a storm on the 00z Euro for the Friday storm. That one def needs watched with the upstream energy now trying to dive more into it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I mean that 00Z Euro run...wow. Two storms in the same week with crazy potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Yeah that second storm has true high end potential if it evolves anything like the 00z GFS or Euro. Both of those runs are historic storms for large swaths of real estate. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I don’t have much expectations for this Mon/Tues storm, my eyes are entirely fixed on Friday. As a resident of NE OK, I’d love for just a slight nudge southward on this track. Last night they nudged north, so hopefully the noon runs can move south by…25, 50 miles. Seems like every system so far this winter has just grazed us to the north. I think she could really be the one, mom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 It’s all real knife-edge stuff for us in SEMO as well as all the models show near-misses with us getting a couple inches while the central part of the state is blasted into nuclear winter. But as they say elsewhere on the boards, we got the cold coming and the moisture will be there… “just happy to be in the game” at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just not looking good for the Monday storm. All models trending to the north. Latest NAM continues this trend. just a couple hours away from having the output on the 12x runs for Friday. Very interested to see those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 It’s always the next system that’s going to be the one. Not getting my hopes up for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12z GFS for the win on Friday for nwa. My goodness! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 58 minutes ago, MUWX said: It’s always the next system that’s going to be the one. Not getting my hopes up for Friday. I'm kind of just happy there are at least threats. I don't get my hopes up until 24 hours before though, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I physically can’t help myself. No matter how many times I’m let down, I’m like an addict needing their next fix. Because eventually it’ll pan out, and that feeling of hype and it coming to fruition will be unmatched. That being said, the GFS is our champion this afternoon. The Canadian is out to lunch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 12 minutes ago, StormChazer said: I physically can’t help myself. No matter how many times I’m let down, I’m like an addict needing their next fix. Because eventually it’ll pan out, and that feeling of hype and it coming to fruition will be unmatched. That being said, the GFS is our champion this afternoon. The Canadian is out to lunch. I remember those days. The sleepless nights because the next model run is just a few hours away. The excitement and anticipation and the buildup of the run, and then the agony of defeat when the model showed the storm going to the north, but wait....... the next model run is just a few hours away, and it'll be different this time.......... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 8 minutes ago, JoMo said: I remember those days. The sleepless nights because the next model run is just a few hours away. The excitement and anticipation and the buildup of the run, and then the agony of defeat when the model showed the storm going to the north, but wait....... the next model run is just a few hours away, and it'll be different this time.......... It’s so nice to know other people go through this. Most people just don’t understand weather model addiction. The worst part is when someone wants to make small talk about the weather and I want to do a frame by frame breakdown of why everything they just said was completely incorrect. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 43 minutes ago, NWAflizzard said: It’s so nice to know other people go through this. Most people just don’t understand weather model addiction. The worst part is when someone wants to make small talk about the weather and I want to do a frame by frame breakdown of why everything they just said was completely incorrect. YES! THIS!! Someone says, “oh my app says it’s going to snow in a few days”. Meanwhile, you’ve obsessed run after run for the last 5 days in said storm and know the latest and greatest, but because their app says so, you don’t really know that much more than them. My pet peeve has always been the nay sayers…you tell them there’s a good chance of snow, with your hours of researching, and they just say, “it’s not going to snow, it’s been too warm.” And then they just accept it as fact. Makes me want to scream. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, JoMo said: I remember those days. The sleepless nights because the next model run is just a few hours away. The excitement and anticipation and the buildup of the run, and then the agony of defeat when the model showed the storm going to the north, but wait....... the next model run is just a few hours away, and it'll be different this time.......... I took have been down that rabbit hole lol, back in the early/mid 2000s when this forum was elsewhere... The longggg sleepless nights, hell I'm too old for that anymore even as much of a snow weenie that I am! Now I just accept that it is what it is and hope for the best 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The pattern looks ripe for some winter events the next couple of weeks. That's about all we know. I think we're in a good spot based on recent events. Maybe one will be a big hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 12z Euro is coming in different with the Friday system due to upstream developments. Not nearly as big of a deal this run due to separation of systems and not really any development of the southern system. Tues system was a bit farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Euro combined with the Canadian run are reminding me that nothing is set in stone(even though I already knew that lol). Still decent snow on this run from the euro if you check the kuchera(will be 14 degrees and snowing in Tulsa). 6-9 inches in Tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Will be interesting to see how far south these watches come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Tuttle had a pretty solid analysis today. It’s essentially the UKMET, GFS, ICON & Climate models vs the Canadian and Euro for Friday. The next 24 hours should really start to develop some sort of trend I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Pretty amused with the silly GFS model calling snowpocalypse next week for Northern Arkansas with 3+ feet happening in that pocket over Harrison. Society would come to a screeching hault if this were to happen. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Missouri hits the jackpot on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 Tuesday system going farther north on the 18z GFS. Friday system still looks good, but we aren't 24 hours away from it yet, so it'll probably end up in Iowa or something by the time we get to Fri. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 9 minutes ago, JoMo said: Tuesday system going farther north on the 18z GFS. Friday system still looks good, but we aren't 24 hours away from it yet, so it'll probably end up in Iowa or something by the time we get to Fri. I think it's more likely for the Friday system to get suppressed south/shift too weak than cut that severely. That -NAO block is stout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 Just gonna be shoveling my 20" of digital snow or my 30" of Kuchera digital snow over the next 10 days... until the next run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 One of the colder GFS runs that I remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 42 minutes ago, andyhb said: I think it's more likely for the Friday system to get suppressed south/shift too weak than cut that severely. That -NAO block is stout. Do you think the MON/TUE system will shift south? In reading the AFDs from DDC and ICT, their mets seem to think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 My goodness. The Friday storm is simply incredible…. Can’t wait for the north trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, MUWX said: My goodness. The Friday storm is simply incredible…. Can’t wait for the north trend. See the 00z GEM for the north trend, lol.. Crazy differences after that between the GEM/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 GFS.....I don't buy the ice though, it mitigates the snow output and still dumps prolific amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 If the NAM is right, there are going to be a lot of unhappy people in parts of Kansas and Missouri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now