Jebman Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 On 9/29/2023 at 8:01 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think is going to be an active STJ and N stream. You betcha, and your region is gonna get hit extremely hard by snow as well. Better rent out some of those western ski resort mega plows! Like the kind they use in Mammoth Mountain, CA, in Palisades Tahoe, and in Alta, Utah. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 17 minutes ago, ldub23 said: We have had a pattern of lows forming off the SE coast and moving offshore. If this pattern repeats in dec-feb it will be quite snowy especially I-95east Its been very persistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 14, 2023 Author Share Posted October 14, 2023 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: Its been very persistent I agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 On 9/25/2023 at 1:50 PM, WEATHER53 said: Temps: -1 Snowfall:14-18” for DCA, IAD, BWI Have two months at a 75% probability of being -2 and one month with a 66% probability of being +1. Will follow Nino pattern and go with Jan and Feb as -2 Primary analog years:1953-54 and 1985-86 Secondary analog years with first two having more weight: 1986-87 and 2010-11. Also 1954-55, 1980-81, 1983-84, 1991-92, 2019-20. Couple of lousy years, some solid cold ones, major storms not showing up. Might battle suppression this year. At least way better than last few. Im thinking a little bit higher, 18-22 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 Mine will be out early-ish this year. Probably 2 weeks 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 My outlook will be done in november 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 I personally think that a dry Fall will lead to a wetter Winter. We've been "filling an average" for a couple years now. This was very clear in the Spring to Summer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 20, 2023 Author Share Posted October 20, 2023 23 hours ago, Deck Pic said: Mine will be out early-ish this year. Probably 2 weeks Great can you put it here also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 Nice discussion from a seasoned meteorologist. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 On 10/19/2023 at 3:00 PM, Deck Pic said: Mine will be out early-ish this year. Probably 2 weeks Ditto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 He nailed it last year. Waiting for........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 24, 2023 Author Share Posted November 24, 2023 Keeping my eyes open now. Thanksgiving initially was predicted as in the 40’s and that was off by 10+ degrees likely due to not handling the storm and its departure correctly. Now Saturday looks about 5F milder than predicted 2/3 days ago with a more impressive thrust due Tuesday. Let’s see how that materializes. Don’t want a string of postponements to be showing up or the delayed but not denied drivel starts flowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 Yo @Deck Pic where is your forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 15, 2023 Author Share Posted December 15, 2023 On 9/25/2023 at 1:50 PM, WEATHER53 said: Temps: -1 Snowfall:14-18” for DCA, IAD, BWI Have two months at a 75% probability of being -2 and one month with a 66% probability of being +1. Will follow Nino pattern and go with Jan and Feb as -2 Primary analog years:1953-54 and 1985-86 Secondary analog years with first two having more weight: 1986-87 and 2010-11. Also 1954-55, 1980-81, 1983-84, 1991-92, 2019-20. Couple of lousy years, some solid cold ones, major storms not showing up. Might battle suppression this year. At least way better than last few. Midway Dec 15 looking to be about +1.5 so my +1 idea for Dec seems right so far. Looks like 1-2 storms per week for 6-8 weeks by end Dec so let’s get cold and snowy. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 1/21/24 update i thought about asking around Jan 1 that might I be off by +2 for DJF. I had Dec +1 and it was 2 too low so would my -2 for JF turn out as 0. Zero is no torch for JF so decent snow still a good idea. Just past halfway point and my snowfall ideas are halfway there. This was a great cold and snowy 9/10 days. I’m rooting for more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1/21/24 update i thought about asking around Jan 1 that might I be off by +2 for DJF. I had Dec +1 and it was 2 too low so would my -2 for JF turn out as 0. Zero is no torch for JF so decent snow still a good idea. Just past halfway point and my snowfall ideas are halfway there. This was a great cold and snowy 9/10 days. I’m rooting for more!HuhSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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