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Remnant Ophelia, Landfall 9/23/23 @6:15 am EDT, 1007 mb, 25 mph, NNE 12 mph Obs thread


Hurricane Agnes
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As an Ophelia-related incident, I had just heard on KYW this afternoon that a tree blew over onto power lines in Yeadon (and there was apparently sparking so am guessing it may have impacted some transformers) and then the sparking lines apparently managed to melt the asphalt on the street and heated up a gas line, that in turn caused a large gas explosion.

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17 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

As an Ophelia-related incident, I had just heard on KYW this afternoon that a tree blew over onto power lines in Yeadon (and there was apparently sparking so am guessing it may have impacted some transformers) and then the sparking lines apparently managed to melt the asphalt on the street and heated up a gas line, that in turn caused a large gas explosion.

Sounds like something that would happen in a looney toons cartoon? A lot of things had to happen to cause this explosion.

Been in a lull. Winds picking up a bit, precip heading up...59F/DP 57F

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47 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

As an Ophelia-related incident, I had just heard on KYW this afternoon that a tree blew over onto power lines in Yeadon (and there was apparently sparking so am guessing it may have impacted some transformers) and then the sparking lines apparently managed to melt the asphalt on the street and heated up a gas line, that in turn caused a large gas explosion.

I think I saw that on a Simpsons episode once.

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55 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Sounds like something that would happen in a looney toons cartoon? A lot of things had to happen to cause this explosion.

Been in a lull. Winds picking up a bit, precip heading up...59F/DP 57F

Not much mention but I did find NBC10 did a blip as they work with KYW for some stuff - https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/downed-power-lines-spark-explosion-and-fire-at-delco-senior-living-complex/3652760/

Last report was that the gas has been contained and shut off in the area, although there are obvious power outages and 2 houses took the brunt of it.

I managed to pick up another 0.01" and am now sitting at 1.00" on the nose.  My high for the day at post time, was a 62 at midnight, and it's currently an overcast and misty 59 with dp 58.

 

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5 pm update, Ophelia still a tropical storm that continues to weaken (in other news, TS Philippe has formed in the SE Atlantic but is expected to follow track similar to Hurricane Nigel - recurving to the east well off the coast of Bermuda) -

Quote
508 
WTNT31 KNHC 232051
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...OPHELIA CROSSES INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURING OVER COASTAL OUTER BANKS AND
MID-ATLANTIC AS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE INLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 77.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from East of Cape Lookout, North
Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet has been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Suffolk, 
Virginia to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the 
Albemarle Sound, and also south of Hatteras Inlet, including 
Pamlico River and Sound. 

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued for portions of the 
Pamlico and Albemarle Sound.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Hatteras Inlet, North Carolina to Duck
* Colonial Beach, Virginia to Suffolk

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was 
located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 77.3 West. Ophelia is 
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual turn toward 
the northeast is expected by tomorrow. On the forecast track, the 
center of Ophelia is expected to continue moving over southeastern 
Virginia through tonight, and then over the Delmarva Peninsula by 
tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Additional weakening is expected, and Ophelia is likely to become a 
post-tropical cyclone tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) 
from the center. A WeatherFlow station in Pamlico Sound recently 
reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h), with a gust up to 43 
mph (69 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Hatteras Inlet, NC to Duck, NC...2-4 ft
James and York Rivers...2-4 ft
Rappahannock River...2-4 ft
Lower Potomac River...2-4 ft
Duck, NC to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft
Surf City NC, NC to Hatteras Inlet, NC...1-2 ft
Neuse and Bay Rivers...1-2 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...1-2 ft
Albemarle and Pamlico Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions 
of the coast of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia within the 
warning area through this evening.

RAINFALL:  Ophelia is expected to produce the following additional 
rainfall through Sunday night:

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic from north central North Carolina
through New Jersey...1 to 3 inches with isolated higher totals up
to 5 inches.

Across southeastern New York through southern New England...1 to 3
inches.

This rainfall may produce locally considerable flash, urban, and
small stream flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid Atlantic
region from North Carolina to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is
possible in areas of heavier rainfall.

SURF:  Swells generated by Ophelia will continue to affect much of 
the east coast of the United States through the weekend.  These 
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two may occur through tonight across parts 
of the Mid-Atlantic Coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

 

205206_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

 

 

 

204354_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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8 pm update - Ophelia is downgraded to a tropical depression -

Quote
000
WTNT31 KNHC 240006
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ophelia 
Intermediate Advisory Number 10A...Retransmitted
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...OPHELIA NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...ALL STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.0N 77.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SSW OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

Coastal flooding warnings and wind advisories remain in effect for 
portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic.  For storm information specific 
to your area, please monitor products issued by your local National 
Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ophelia 
was located near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 77.6 West. Ophelia 
is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn 
toward the northeast is expected by tomorrow. On the forecast track, 
the center of Ophelia is expected to continue moving over 
southeastern Virginia through tonight, and then over the Delmarva 
Peninsula by tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is expected, and Ophelia 
is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone tomorrow.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause 
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters 
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the 
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if 
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Hatteras Inlet, NC to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Rivers...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft
Beaufort Inlet, NC to Hatteras Inlet, NC...1-2 ft
Neuse, Bay, Pamlico, and Pungo Rivers...1-2 ft
Albemarle and Pamlico Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Gusty winds to tropical storm force are still possible near 
the coasts of North Carolina and Virginia during the next few hours.

RAINFALL:  Ophelia is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall through Sunday night:

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic from north central North Carolina
through New Jersey...1 to 3 inches with isolated higher totals up
to 5 inches.

Across southeastern New York through southern New England...1 to 3
inches.

This rainfall may produce locally considerable flash, urban, and
small stream flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid Atlantic
region from North Carolina to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is
possible in areas of heavier rainfall.

SURF:  Swells generated by Ophelia will continue to affect much of
the east coast of the United States through the weekend.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two may occur through tonight across parts
of the Mid-Atlantic Coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

 

234410_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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I guess it was about an hour ago I had a loud gust (I guess from where it blew against the back of the house which faces NE) and the temp has slowly crept up (although not at the midnight high of 62 yet).

Currently an overcast, breezy and damp 60 with dp 59.  Next batch is pushing up from the SE so will see what that nets me (am still siting at 1.00" for the day/event so far).

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11 pm update and Ophelia has now been downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone.  Last advisory from the NHC -

Quote
000
WTNT31 KNHC 240240
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...OPHELIA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL LOW BUT CONTINUES TO POSE A
RISK OF COASTAL AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC...
...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 77.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF CHARLOTTESVILLE VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

Coastal flood warnings, as well as flood watches and flash flood
warnings, remain in effect for portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Ophelia was located near latitude 37.1 North, longitude 77.6 West.
Ophelia is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  The 
center of Ophelia is expected to turn toward the north-northeast 
and northeast, moving across eastern Virginia and the Delmarva 
Peninsula through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so.  
The post-tropical low is expected to become absorbed by a frontal 
boundary Sunday night or early Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

STORM SURGE:  Water levels remain elevated within portions of
Chesapeake Bay and its tidal rivers but should gradually recede
overnight and into Sunday.  For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Ophelia is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall through Sunday night:

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic from Virginia through New Jersey...1
to 3 inches with isolated higher totals up to 5 inches.

Across southeastern New York through southern New England...1 to 3
inches.

This rainfall may produce localized flash, urban, and small stream
flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid-Atlantic region from
Virginia to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is possible in areas
of heavier rainfall.

SURF:  Swells generated by Ophelia will continue to affect much of
the east coast of the United States through the weekend.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Ophelia.  Future information on this system can be 
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center 
beginning at 500 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header 
WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

025343_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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WPC now taking over discussion with the 5 am update with Ophelia is now a remnant low -

Quote
000
WTNT31 KWNH 240856
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number  12
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   AL162023
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...POST-TROPICAL OPHELIA CONTINUES TO POSE A RISK OF COASTAL
FLOODING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM WASHINGTON D.C. TO NEW YORK
CITY TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.7N 77.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF WASHINGTON D.C.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

Flash flood watches have expired.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

Coastal flood warnings and advisories remain in effect for portions
of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Ophelia was located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 77.3 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near
12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today 
before a turn to the east tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.
A gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours as the low 
center moves slowly offshore.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

STORM SURGE:  Water levels remain elevated within portions of
Chesapeake Bay and its tidal rivers but should gradually recede
through today.  For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.


RAINFALL:  Ophelia is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall through late this coming night:

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England…1 to 3 inches

This rainfall may produce localized flash, urban, and small stream
flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region into
southern New England.  Isolated river flooding is possible in areas
of heavier rainfall.


SURF:  Swells generated by Ophelia will continue to affect much of
the east coast of the United States through today.  These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the Weather Prediction
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Carbin

 

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Am now under a pivot band as the remnant pushes up from the SW and is giving me some steady 1/4" per hr rain. 

Finished up yesterday with 1.08" and got up this morning to another 0.07".  Now have 0.35" at post time (1.43" for the 2-days) from the on and off showers.  Temp has really surged and is 66 with dp 65 (and you can feel the difference). 

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