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Central PA Autumn 2023


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MU on the weekend:

By Friday night and Saturday, my attention will turn toward the southeastern U.S. coastline for possible tropical development. An old, washed-out, and quasi-stationary frontal boundary over the Florida Peninsula could serve as the breeding ground for this potential tropical cyclone. Disturbances that move east-or-northeastward along these stalled fronts often tap into the deep, tropical moisture available in the Bahamas and/or Gulf of Mexico and become more organized. Sometimes, they eventually obtain tropical characteristics and are then named by the National Hurricane Center. In this case, the disturbance of interest is currently quite disorganized and located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico. By Thursday, it will exit off the east coast of the Florida Peninsula and then move slowly north-or-northeastward off the southeastern U.S. and Carolina coastlines through Friday night or Saturday. If the disturbance becomes a tropical storm on Friday or over the weekend, it would likely acquire the name "Ophelia."

Numerical computer models are notoriously bad at handling the timing, track, and intensity of such disturbances, so it's no surprise that a broad range of outcomes are currently on the table. Some models simulate rapid intensification and a landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border sometime between late Saturday morning and Saturday night, while others suggest a weaker system and track along or just off the Carolina coastline. In the first case, the weakening, remnant low pressure system would likely reach northern MD and southern PA by Sunday or Monday, but rainy and windy conditions could arrive as early as late Saturday morning or early afternoon. The rest of the weekend would also turn out cool, damp, and dreary with showers or periods of rain persisting through Sunday and perhaps even into Monday. In the worst-case scenario, winds could gust as high as 40 mph later Saturday through Saturday night with up to 3-5" of rain falling through early next week. However, the second case mentioned above would result in an entirely different outcome in this weekend's weather. Instead of a washout, Saturday could just turn out cloudy and a bit cooler with intermittent showers or a brief period of steadier, light rain before drier, brighter and warmer conditions return on Sunday. At this point, either solution.. or anything in between.. are equally as likely. The strength and speed of a cold frontal boundary diving southward out of eastern Canada will be a key factor in determining the track of the potential tropical system. A weaker, slower front would give the system more leeway to track farther north and west, while a stronger, faster front would suppress the system and kick it out-to-sea more quickly. Check back in late this week for an update! -- Elliott

As much as I would love to see a whiteout game in a 40mph wind driven monsoon, I would be terrified of it basically playing to all of Iowa's strengths. I was at the 6-4 game. I still have PTSD.

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3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Yeah, this is a notable combination for Hagerstown: 3rd warmest and driest YTD. Surprisingly, very little drought with most of Washington County labelled only as abnormally dry (see below).

Regarding temperatures on a year-to-date basis, 8 out of the top 10 warmest have occurred since within the past 14 years, and expanding out a bit (not shown) 9 of the top 12 and 10 of the top 14.

3rd warmest year to date

image.png.f7b0d3c79d6c69d4459fea7f789908f8.png

Driest year to date

image.png.71d48929defcc808e356f44196746a57.png

image.png.ccc3e3e4dcb573453d9c82d3f139d511.png

Yea, the drought maps are less spectacular than they probably should be.  I believe the ground water tables are holding better than expected which is lessening the large-scale effects and skewing the ratings to something less than would normally happen with this little rain and above ground stream levels with this many reds and oranges.

Stream gage levels in Maryland, relative to 30 year average.

 

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Yea, the drought maps are less spectacular than they probably should be.  I believe the ground water tables are holding better than expected which is lessening the large-scale effects and skewing the ratings to something less than would normally happen with this little rain and above ground stream levels with this many reds and oranges.
real.gif
 
I'm guessing ground water is holding better due to close proximity of normal and above normal rainfall?

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10 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I'm not used to seeing such small regional intense droughts. Especially when the larger region is so wet. Wish there was a good research paper or two on these.

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The least precip since 1899 through Sept 19th at an NWS managed airport rig is about as intense as they get around here. 

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I've been gardening, landscaping, and kayaking central PA. For 30 years.  The creeks have been much lower and ground as been a hell of alot dryer in most areas in past years. Water did not cease to flow over any Yellow Breaches, Conawago ,or Conestoga dams yet this year. That's how you know when there is  severe area wide drought. 

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Screenshot_20230919_160212_Chrome.thumb.jpg.af2c714d2c81c4cbb7562d8a8aaa0999.jpgIn really dry summers the graphs will flatline  for the summer sometimes for almost the whole year. I use these graphs to know when and where to go fishing in the Susquehanna Valley. I do relize some where much dryer than others.
The size of the area and repeated misses there dispite forcast is what I found so unique.

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I didn't say I was asking for this to happen. 

You would never want to ruin my vaca!    We are nowhere near the boardwalk but I could foresee myself going down there, umbrella in hand, to see how many rainy day Skee-Ball games it will take to get a wooden train whistle.  Choo-Choo. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

You would never want to ruin my vaca!    We are nowhere near the boardwalk but I could foresee myself going down there, umbrella in hand, to see how many rainy day Skee-Ball games it will take to get a wooden train whistle. 

I hope the weather is glorious in OCMD.

Skee-Ball is fun though! 

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2 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

As much as I would love to see a whiteout game in a 40mph wind driven monsoon, I would be terrified of it basically playing to all of Iowa's strengths. I was at the 6-4 game. I still have PTSD.

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Tell me about it ugh. I was there as well. And yes, Iowa would love nothing more than a bad weather game. Nobody loves making a game ugly more than Iowa. 

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9 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

That looks so much like winter storms of yesteryear that the nostalgia is making me all warm inside. Perfect for reality to come and tear out my warm still beating heart.

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Honestly thought similarly.  Even has that strip of convergence leading to heaviest precip near the western edge.

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