September 2023 temperature forecast contest

Roger Smith · August 25, 2023

Predict temp anomaly (F deg) relative to 1991-2020 average, for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

deadline 06z Friday September 1st.

... wxdude64 posted early for September in previous contest:

DCA: -0.2

NYC: -0.5

BOS: -0.6

ORD: -0.3

ATL: +0.8

IAH: +1.2

DEN: +1.4

PHX: +2.1

SEA: +0.3

Stormchaserchuck1 · August 27, 2023

DCA: +3.5

NYC: +3.5

BOS: +3.2

ORD: +4.0

ATL: +3.8

IAH: +3.7

DEN: +0.5

PHX: +0.0

SEA: -0.8

so_whats_happening · August 29, 2023

Doing this before I forget:

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+2.5 +2.1 +2.8 +3.5 +2.1 +1.9 +1.4 +1.6 +1.3

Scotty Lightning · August 29, 2023

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Rjay · August 30, 2023

DCA: +4.5

NYC: +4.5

BOS: +4.5

ORD: +5.5

ATL: +4.0

IAH: +4.0

DEN: +4.0

PHX: +2.0

SEA: 0.0

hudsonvalley21 · August 31, 2023

DCA: +2.8

NYC: +2.4

BOS: +2.7

ORD: +2.4

ATL: +2.5

IAH: +2.4

DEN: +2.1

PHX: +2.3

SEA: +0.7

wxallannj · August 31, 2023

DCA: +3.0

NYC: +3.2

BOS: +3.4

ORD: +3.0

ATL: +1.8

IAH: +1.4

DEN: +2.5

PHX: +1.5

SEA: -0.4

donsutherland1 · August 31, 2023

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

2.0 2.1 1.8 3.5 2.0 2.8 2.8 2.0 0.6

Tom · August 31, 2023

DCA: +3.1

NYC: +3.4

BOS: +3.3

ORD: +3.9

ATL: +2.2

IAH: +1.5

DEN: +1.9

PHX: +1.1

SEA: +0.6

bkviking · August 31, 2023

DCA: +2.1

NYC: +2.5

BOS: +2.4

ORD: +2.8

ATL: +2.7

IAH: +2.0

DEN: +1.9

PHX: +2.0

SEA: 0.3

Roger Smith · August 31, 2023

+3.8 _ +4.5 _ +6.0 __ +5.5 _ +3.8 _ +3.8 __ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +1.0

RodneyS · August 31, 2023

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.3 1.9 1.3 3.0 0.0 3.6 3.6 0.4 0.1

Rhino16 · September 1, 2023

+0.8 _ +0.6 _ +0.4 __ +1.2 _ +0.9 _ +0.8 __ +1.1 _ +0.3 _ -0.6

Roger Smith · September 1, 2023

Table of forecasts for September 2023

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

RJay ______________________+4.5 _+4.5 _+4.5 __ +5.5 _+4.0 _+4.0 __+4.0 _+2.0 __0.0

Roger Smith ______________+3.8 _+4.5 _+6.0 __ +5.5 _+3.8 _+3.8 __+2.5 _+2.5 _+1.0

StormchaserChuck 1 _____+3.5 _+3.5 _+3.2 __ +4.0 _+3.8 _+3.7 __+0.5 __ 0.0 _-0.8

Tom ______________________ +3.1 _+3.4 _+3.3 __ +3.9 _+2.2 _+1.5 __+1.9 _+1.1 _ +0.6

wxallannj _________________ +3.0 _+3.2 _+3.4 __ +3.0 _+1.8 _+1.4 __+2.5 _+1.5 _-0.4

hudsonvalley21 ___________+2.8 _+2.4 _+2.7 __ +2.4 _+2.5 _+2.4 __+2.1 _+2.3 _+0.7

___ Consensus ____________+2.5 _+2.4 _+2.7 __ +3.0 _+2.1 _+2.0 __ +1.9 _+1.5 _+0.3

so_whats_happening _____+2.5 _+2.1 _+2.8 ___ +3.5 _+2.1 _+1.9 __+1.4 _+1.6 _ +1.3

BKViking __________________+2.1 _+2.5 _+2.4 __ +2.8 _+2.7 _+2.0 __+1.9 _+2.0 _+0.3

DonSutherland 1 __________+2.0 _+2.1 _+1.8 __ +3.5 _+2.0 _+2.8 __+2.8 _+2.0 _+0.6

Scotty Lightning __________+1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 __+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0

RodneyS _________________ +1.3 _+1.9 _+1.3 ___ +3.0 _ 0.0 _+3.6 __+3.6 _+0.4 _+0.1

Rhino16 __________________ +0.8 _+0.6 _+0.4 __ +1.2 _+0.9 _+0.8 __+1.1 _+0.3 _-0.6

___ Normal _________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __0.0 __0.0

wxdude64 ________________-0.2 _ -0.5 _ -0.6 __ -0.3 _+0.8 _+1.2 __+1.4 _+2.1 _+0.3

=========================

persistence (Aug anoms) _-0.7 __-1.1 _ -0.9 ____ +0.5 _+2.4 _+5.8 __+1.3 _+4.4 _+2.5

consensus vs persistence +3.2 _+3.5 _+3.6 ____ +2.5 _-0.3 _-3.8 __ +0.6 _-2.9 _-2.2

(contest field's expected trends from Aug to Sep) ^^

consensus and persistence could score up to 452 points different if one is always correct (or if outcomes are always entirely in its favor ... in August, consensus scored just a bit more as outcomes were often between them).

Consensus and Normal could score up to 368 points different, and for all nine locations consensus is warmer.

Persistence and Normal could score up to 392 points different.

=========================

apart from persistence, color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts. Normal is colder than all forecasts for IAH and DEN and equal to coldest for ATL and PHX.

Consensus is a median value for 13 forecasts. Persistence and Normal are not included in the calculation.

Summer Max data will be coming over to this thread during the next week, for now you'll find updates in August contest.

Roger Smith · September 4, 2023

Summer Maximum Contest __ Update

Sep 4, 2023

(forecasts)

FORECASTER _______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

Rhino 16 _____________________105 __ 95 __ 98 ____101 _ 106 _ 101 ___ 99 _ 118 __ 96

Scotty Lightning _____________103 _ 101 __ 99 ____ 98 _ 104 _ 109 ___ 94 _ 119 __ 90

Roger Smith _________________ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 108 ___103 _ 119 __ 98

so_whats_happening ________ 101 __ 101 __ 98 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 100 __ 101 _ 122 __ 97

RJay _________________________ 101 __ 98 __ 99 ____ 98 _ 101 _ 105 ___100 _ 119 __ 97

hudsonvalley21 ______________ 101 __ 98 __ 95 ____100 _ 102 _ 105 ___ 97 _ 121 __ 93

DonSutherland1 ______________101 __ 96 __ 96 ____ 96 __ 96 _ 103 ___ 98 _ 116 __ 92

___ Consensus _______________ 100 __ 98 __ 98 ___ 98 _ 100 _ 103 ___ 99 _ 118 __ 95

wxdude64 ___________________ 100 __ 99 _ 101 ___102 _ 100 _ 105 ___104 _ 119 __ 96

BKViking _____________________ 100 __ 99 __ 98 ___ 97 __ 97 ___99 __ 100 _ 120 __ 95

Tom ___________________________99 __ 98 __ 97 ___ 101 __ 99 __ 103 ___97 _ 119 __ 97

wxallannj ______________________98 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 94 __ 98 _ 102 __ 101 _ 116 __ 97

RodneyS ______________________98 __ 96 __ 95 ____ 96 __ 96 _ 102 ___ 99 _ 117 __ 92

Terpeast ______________________ 96 __ 97 __ 97 ____ 95 __ 98 _ 102 ___ 99 _ 117 __ 99

(summer max to date) ________ 99 __ 93 __ 93 ____100 __ 99 _ 109 ____99 _ 119 __ 95

(current departures of forecasts) _ (now in contest rank order)

Rank _FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__ORD_ATL_IAH__DEN_PHX_SEA___TOTAL

_01 __ Tom ________________________ 0 ___ 5 ___ 4 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 6 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 20 (8)

_02 __ hudsonvalley21 ____________ 2 ___ 5 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 3 ___ 4 ____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 22 (8)

03 _______ Consensus ____________ 1 ___ 5 ___ 5 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 6 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 23 (9)

_03 __ RJay _______________________ 2 ___ 5 ___ 6 ____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 4 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 24 (6)

_04 __ RodneyS ___________________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 4 ___ 3 ___ 7 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 25 (18)

_t05__ DonSutherland1 ____________2 ___ 3 ___ 3 ____ 4 ___ 3 ___ 6 ____ 1 ___ 3 ___ 3 ____ 28 (20)

_t05__ wxdude64 _________________ 1 ___ 6 ___ 8 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 4 ____ 5 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 28 (4)

_07__ BKViking _____________________1 ___ 6 ___ 5 ____ 3 ___ 2 ___10 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 29 (15)

_t08_ Terpeast _____________________3 ___ 4 ___ 4 ____ 5 ___ 1 ___ 7 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 4 ____ 30 (18)

_t08 __ Roger Smith _______________ 2 ___ 9 ___ 7 ____ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ____ 4 ___ 0 ___ 3 ____ 30 (1)

_09__ wxallannj _____________________1 ___ 5 ___ 4 ____ 6 ___ 1 ___ 7 ____ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 31 (18)

_11 __ Rhino 16 ______________________6 ___ 2 ___ 5 ____ 1 ___ 7 ___ 8 ____ 0___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 31 (9)

_t12 __Scotty Lightning _____________4 ___ 8 ___ 6 ____2 ___ 5 ___ 0 ____ 5 ___ 0 ___ 5 ____ 35 (12)

_t12 __so_whats_happening ________2 ___ 8 ___ 5 ____ 1 ___ 3 ___ 9 ____ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 35 (9)

=============================

(score in brackets represents departures not subject to potential improvement if warmer temps occur --

your final score will be at least value in brackets plus any remnant departures)

edited Sep 5 for DCA 99F and after Sep 7 for BOS 93F

The table is possibly now a final report on the contest.

Roger Smith · September 14, 2023

Provisional Scoring for September 2023

Quite early, just to show what scores you would receive if the projections above are accurate.

_ post now after historical overview post below, followed by annual update post.

(post identified potential for high scores this month).

Good luck, I am pretty sure scores over 800 may have happened in the past, but it is unusual. I believe it could happen for one or two scores this month.

(the following historical summary answers the question of highest previous scores, they are from April or June 2014 and a few are just over 800, others have personal bests in the 750 to 800 range ...)

=========================

Roger Smith · September 14, 2023

The history of the contest (with personal best scores)

Before 2013, the contest was managed by a number of people including but not limited to Chicago Storm, mallow and Ellinwood. In 2013 I began to score the contest, although there was no max-60 rule and just six stations until 2014. In 2014 the three western locations were offered as "optional" and the scores were not combined. Contest scoring reports were separated into two groups (original six and western three), but by 2017 the scores were combined so total scoring was out of 900 each month.

In 2013, RodneyS was the annual contest winner and DonSutherland1 was third. We used to have a considerably larger contest field of 30-40 lasting to about 2017, and some who have departed are long-time members still active, others have left Am-Wx or at least are now operating under a different username). I have added results from 2013, bearing in mind, totals are out of 600, not 900 (no western stations yet) ...

month _______ winning score (/600) _____ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active

JAN ___________ 452 _Mallow, 448 midlo snow maker __ 436 RodneyS

FEB ___________ 512 __ Ineedsnow ______ Don Sutherland1 __ 492

MAR _____________ 457 __ wxdude64

APR ___________ 466 __Sacrus __________ RodneyS _ 462 _____ no snowfall contest winter 2012-13

MAY _____________ 534 __ Isotherm _520 Ellinwood __ 506 BKViking (tied OhLeary) __ severe storm bonus contest, subjective post-mortem*

___ ___ ____ ____ _____ ______ _______ ________ __________ __________ *pottercounty, Ellinwood, MNT, ChIcago Storm were mentioned as best

JUN ___________ 556 __ Roger Smith _ 550 Mallow _ 546 Midlo Snow Maker

JUL ___________ 460 __ Mallow, 438 Sacrus __ 424 wxdude64

AUG ___________530 __ UncleW __ 524 Chicago Storm __ 522 Roger Smith

SEP ___________ 538 __ MN_Transplant __ four others, then 472 _ SD (Scotty L nowadays)

OCT __________ 544 __ forkyfork ________522 _BKViking tied 4th __ Midlo Snow Maker won seasonal max contest for 6 locs (RodneyS t2nd w UncleW)

NOV __________ 470 __ RodneyS ___ four seasons contest did not begin until 2014-15 year

DEC ___________448 __ MetallicWx366 ___ DonSutherland1 _ 392

__ Winner of 2013 contest (combined score) was RodneyS (5215) with Midlo Snow Maker second at 4967, DonS 3rd at 4851. No extreme forecast tracking yet.

In 2014, although scores were not combined, I have added them and found these monthly wins ( was going to place numbers in brackets to represent scoring if a max-60 rule was in effect but could find few cases of revisable scores, a few such low scoring months exist but those with increased scores did not come very close to winning any month): ___ note your personal best score is also tracked even if you didn't win that month.

month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active

JAN ___________ 700 __ Roger Smith

FEB ___________ 558 __ midlo snow maker ___ Don Sutherland1 __ 532

MAR _____________ 677 __ Don Sutherland1

APR ___________ 802 __Don Sutherland1 ___ ( Mallow 798 ) ___ midlo snow maker won snowfall contest (Tom t4 best of current forecasters)

MAY _____________ 736 __ Don Sutherland1 ___ ( Isotherm 728 )

JUN ___________ 810 __ Mallow ___________ Roger S _ 808 ... hudsonvalley21 _ 794

JUL ___________ 592 __ Roger Smith (also Cpick79 (N of Pike) tied 592)

AUG __________ 608 __ Don Sutherland1

SEP ___________ 742 __ Midlo Snow Maker ___ Don Sutherland1 and BKViking _ 716

OCT __________ 584 __ wxallannj (600) ___ Damage in Tolland won seasonal max contest (RodneyS 2nd)

NOV __________ 609 __ Roger Smith (627) ___ four seasons contest did not begin until 2014-15 year

DEC __________ 592 __ Midlo Snow Maker ___ wxallannj _ 462

__ Winner of 2014 contest (combined score) was Roger Smith (7195 would be 7213 now) while DonS totalled 7186. This close finish was not recorded at the time and Don was close to top of western scoring. Roger Smith also won the extreme forecast award (14-2).

2015 _ scores now combined making this project a lot simpler to navigate ...

month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active

JAN __________ 656 __ Isotherm __________ Tom _ 542

FEB ________ about 500* __ DonS ... ______ __ __ BKViking won snowfall contest for winter on a different scoring system

MAR __________ 507 __ Absolute humidity ____ DonS _ 503

APR _________796 __ Midlo Snow Maker __ wxallannj _ 756

MAY ________ 535 __ Stebo _______________ RodneyS _ 495

JUN ________ 596 __ wxdude64

JUL ________ 765 __ DonSutherland1

AUG _______ 696 __ SD (Scotty L) __ (later realized SD was Scotty Lightning, not sure when changed)

SEP ________ 619 __ RJay ____________ __ __ SD (Scotty L) won seasonal max contest, Tom was 2nd.

OCT _______ 714 __ Damage in Tolland ____ DonS 644

NOV _______ 774 __ ksammut _Ohwx 752 __DonS 726 ___ first four seasons contest winner Isotherm, DonS 4th (Mallow 2nd, msm 3rd)

DEC _______ 487 __ snoski14 _______________Roger Smith 454 (very mild Dec 2015, scoring quite low for most)

The highest combined score for 2015 was 6944 (Isotherm) and DonS was third at 6499. (D in T was 2nd).

Damage in Tolland also won extreme forecast award (11-0), RJay and RodneyS (5-2) were best of currently active forecasters.

* Feb 2015 was a very cold month, low scoring ... I proposed a max 60 rule in play but it was left out for 2015 ... if it were used, DonS would have won with about 500 pts. The actual high score was 383 for mikehobbyst.

_______________________

2016 _ The max-60 rule was still not adopted, and scoring for DEN and PHX was quite low in Feb 2016 but I couldn't find any potential winning scores among those who would have seen improved scores. No doubt our current forecasters would have scored higher if they alone had been boosted.

month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active

JAN ______ 724 __ wxdude64

FEB ______ 534 __ Midlo Snow Maker __ RodneyS _ 446

MAR ______665 __Maxim ______________ DonS _ 637

APR ______ 710 __ wxallannj __________ __ __ winter snow contest won by Mallow, wxdude64 (5th) had high score of current active forecasters

MAY ______ 708 __ Don Sutherland1

JUN ______ 702 __ Damage in Tolland __ RodneyS __ 658

JUL ______ 754*__ OHweather 754 _____ wxdude64, hudsonvalley21 _ t744 __ *(Consensus won wit 756)

AUG ______ 646 __ RJay

SEP ______ 698 __ Maxim _______________ RJay _ 632 ____ Summer max contest co-winners Maxim and Mallow, RodneyS was 3rd

OCT _____ 580 __ Maxim _______________ RJay _ 560

NOV _____ 650 __ Don Sutherland1 ____ four seasons winners (tied) DonS and RJay

DEC _____ 631 __ BKViking (despite 6% late penalty)

DonSutherland1 won the annual contest with 7139 points. Damage in Tolland won extreme forecast award 9-0. Among currently active forecasters, RodneyS in fourth (7-3) was top currently active.

2017 still went forward without max-60 scoring and contests were not yet fully merged. The January scores were very low in eastern and central regions, due to very mild conditions. If max-60 had been applied, they would have been higher by at least 100 in some cases. Top scores were as low as 17 and 20. A much smaller adjustment was required in February 2017, where ORD had a top score of 49, and it was recorded by the eventual contest winner RJay. March also needed adjusting and after a discussion, we used a modified version of max-60 scoring. Score adjustments shown here use the current version.

month _______ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active

JAN _______ 452 (587) _ Don Sutherland1

FEB ________587 (598) _ RJay

MAR _______518 (556) _ RodneyS _________ Mercurial won snowfall contest with RodneyS a close second.

APR _______ 628 __ RJay

MAY _______ 670 __ Don Sutherland1 ___ (Normal _ 702 actually "won" contest)

JUN _______ 694 __ wxallannj

JUL ________778 __ RJay

AUG _______ 770 __ Don Sutherland1

SEP ________ 725 __ rainsucks ___________ BKViking _ 589 ____ CCM won seasonal max, one point ahead of BKViking

OCT _______ 645 __ rainsucks ___________ BKViking _ 627

NOV _______ 532 (556) _ RodneyS _______ RodneyS also won four seasons contest for 2017

DEC _______ 614 __ Don Sutherland1

The annual contest winner for 2017 was RJay, scoring 6417 (would have been closer to 6600 using current scoring).

Extreme forecast winner was also RJay at 8-0.

By late 2017 the contest turnout was beginning to look fairly similar to 2022-23, with perhaps three or four additional players. To drum up support I came up with the "Regional Rumble" concept for 2018 which compared scores of top forum sub-regional forecasters in a team format. This worked for a while but the overwhelming superiority of NYC and mid-Atlantic had a chilling effect and by end of 2018 we were pretty much back to square one, and the "Regional Rumble" went the way of the Edsel and robots who do housework.

SD changed to Scotty Lightning during 2018, can't tell when as software changed username before I changed name in scoring tables.

2018

As noted above, "Regional Rumble" took place in 2018. Best regional score (eastern, central, western) from any forecaster in sub-forum was used to determine format scoring. Also, max-60 finally made it to scoring system, so 2018 scores are directly comparable to more recent years.

month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active

JAN _______ 640 _ Mercurial __________ Don Sutherland1 _ 536 ___ "Regional Rumble" winner Central/western

FEB _______ 449 _ so_whats_happening (despite 4% late pen) ___ "Regional Rumble" winner Philly

MAR ______ 684 _ RodneyS ____________ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic.

APR _______ 627 _ RodneyS ____________ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC

MAY _______ 633 _ Roger Smith ________ "Regional Rumble" winner Central/West ___ snowfall contest winner Don Sutherland1

JUN _______ 744 _ BKViking (742 Tom) _ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC

JUL _______ 737 _ RodneyS _____________ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic

AUG ______ 618 _ Don Sutherland1 ______ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC

SEP _______ 688 _ RJay _________________ "Regional Rumble" winner NYC ___ seasonal max contest winner Don Sutherland1

OCT _______ 650 _ Scotty Lightning ____ "Regional Rumble" winner Mid Atlantic

NOV _______ 527 _ Scotty Lightning (Normal 540) __ "Regional Rumble" winner Philly ___ Four Seasons winner wxallannj

DEC _______ 572 _ wxallannj _____________"Regional Rumble" winner Philly (annual NYC) ___ Annual contest winner Scotty L (6393)

_______________ _______________ _________________ _________________ extreme forecast winner Roger Smith (15-1)

2019 _ Contest entrants now limited to current group plus Stebo who only entered first four, RJay also opted out for rest of year around May. Regional Rumble no longer in operation. Two guest appearances in 2019 by jakkelwx (July and Dec), and one each for tplbge (June), smerby (July), and Orangeburg Wx (Oct).

month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active

JAN _______ 676 _ hudsonvalley21

FEB _______ 585 _ stebo (despite 3% late pen) _ RodneyS _ 550

MAR ______ 737 _ wxdude64 _________ snowfall contest winner RodneyS (final report edited back from end of snow in APR-MAY)

APR _______ 707 _ RodneyS

MAY _______ 658 _ RodneyS

JUN _______ 792 _ wxdude64

JUL _______ 686 _ Roger Smith

AUG _______672 _ Scotty Lightning

SEP _______ 600 _ Roger Smith ______ seasonal max contest winner wxallannj

OCT _______ 682 _ Orangeburg Wx __ Don Sutherland1 586

NOV _______ 679 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner RodneyS (consensus marginally better score, based on ranks not points in 2019)

DEC _______ 601 _ wxallannj __________Annual contest winner wxdude64 (7114) (RodneyS 7106) ___ Extreme forecast winner Roger Smith (27-8)

... also Roger Smith had a larger total of best forecasts but with quite a few very low scores, and so ended up middle of annual scoring table.

2020 _ The year began with the current group of regulars (except for so_whats_happening who had been active around 2016-18 but not in 2019 or 2020), and a number of new faces, some of who entered more than once during 2020. Brian5671 entered eight, jakkelwx seven, yoda four, and rclab, dwave, Maxim and Rhino16 one each. Maxim was quite regularly entered in contests around 2014 to 2017.

month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active

JAN _______ 559 _ RodneyS

FEB _______ 701 _ RodneyS

MAR ______ 638 _ DonSutherland1 ___ snowfall contest winner wxallannj (final report edited back from end of snow in APR-MAY)

APR _______ 595 _ DonSutherland1 ... (632_Normal was actual winner)

MAY _______ 726 _ RodneyS

JUN _______ 726 _ RJay (despite 2% late penalty)

JUL _______ 664 _ RJay

AUG _______732 _ Roger Smith

SEP _______ 794 _ RodneyS __________ seasonal max contest winner RodneyS, wxallannj was 2nd by one point.

OCT _______ 690 _ Yoda _____________ hudsonvalley21 _ 660

NOV _______ 579 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner RodneyS

DEC _______ 730 _ DonSutherland1 ___Annual contest winner RodneyS (7223) __ extreme forecast winner Roger Smith 17-5 (RodneyS was 15-4). RJay at 13-0

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ had the best differential.

2021 __ The year began with the current regular entrants participating. Deformation Zone entered six from July to Dec. Stormchaser Chuck appeared in only one (NOV), and had previously entered a few contests as "A few universes below normal" (I think) in previous years.

The seasonal max contest ran in a separate thread in an effort to attract extra forecasts (none were submitted). The infamous heat dome struck and SEA had a seasonal max of 108! Despite missing that by 16 deg, wxallannj won the contest. Our highest forecast for SEA was 99F. At my own location, an all time max of 113 was recorded.

month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active

JAN _______ 678 _ DonSutherland1

FEB _______ 569 _ RodneyS

MAR ______ 561 _ so_whats_happening and wxdude64 tied

APR _______ 638 _ BKViking _________ snowfall contest winner RJay (final report edited back from end of snow in MAY)

MAY _______ 700 _ Tom _ (Normal 716 was actual winner) _ wxallannj 696 _ a close finish with different outcome relative to 1991-2020 normals announced during month

JUN _______ 609 _ Roger Smith _______ first contest with 1991-2020 values used.

JUL _______ 680 _ RodneyS _ Normal 686 was actual winner

AUG _______736 _ Roger Smith

SEP _______ 630 _ RJay (629 DonS) __ seasonal max contest winner wxallannj (separate thread).

OCT _______ 656 _ RJay (despite 1% late penalty)

NOV _______ 685 _ Roger Smith ______Four Seasons winner DonSutherland1

DEC _______ 518 _ RodneyS ___Annual contest winner DonSutherland1 (7011) RodneyS (6927)

__ __ __ extreme forecast outcome very similar to previous year ... winner Roger Smith 16-3, RodneyS was 15-1, RJay at 12-0.

2022 __ The contest featured more regular appearances by Stormchaser Chuck who made eight appearances; George001 entered DEC to enter snowfall contest, and added temperatures. The highlight of the year was probably the highest annual totals to date. RodneyS had a very good second half of the year.

month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active

JAN _______ 682 _ wxdude64

FEB _______ 690 _ DonSutherland1

MAR ______ 756 _ Tom

APR _______ 676 _ RJay _________ snowfall contest winner RodneyS (final report edited back from end of snow in MAY)

MAY _______660 _ DonSutherland1 _ (RJay 658 after 1% late penalty)

JUN _______ 718 _ Roger Smith

JUL _______ 728 _ so_whats_happening

AUG _______682 _ Roger Smith

SEP _______ 730 _ RodneyS ____ seasonal max contest winner RJay

OCT _______ 670 _ RodneyS

NOV _______ 618 _ BKViking ____ Four Seasons winner Rodney with DonSutherland1 only two points back

DEC _______ 740 _ RodneyS ___Annual contest winner Rodney S (7690) ... 2nd wxdude64 _ 7488 ... 3rd DonS _ 7462 (best totals in report so far)

___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ (swh 11/12 contests, prorated score would be 7509).

__ __ __ extreme forecast outcome very similar to previous two years ... winner Roger Smith 16-7, RodneyS was 12-2, Stormchaser Chuck

from 8/12 contests made a good score of 9.5-1. (unlike previous reports 2022 includes a reduction for ties, comparable numbers are

18-7, 14-2, 10-1.)

2023 __ The current contest year will be fully reported going forward and then this entire report will be moved to end of DEC thread. Stormchaser Chuck has continued to enter a few but not all contests, and swh has been somewhat occasional so far at 7/11 to NOV.

Rhino16 became a new regular forecaster in March. Rainsucks and Terpeast have each entered one contest. Tom missed March due to injury and is doing a great job of gradually catching up to the pack (already past your host).

month _____ winning score ___________ if not current, high score of currently active (and potential personal best non-wins) + near wins no longer active

JAN _______ 554 _ DonSutherland1

FEB _______ 674 _ Stormchaser Chuck __ RJay 657

MAR ______ 513 _ DonSutherland1

APR _______ 652 _ wxdude64 _______ snowfall contest winner Scotty Lightning

MAY _______700 _ tied wxallannj, hudsonvalley21 _ Consensus actually won with 720

JUN _______ 636 _ RodneyS

JUL _______ 746 _ wxallannj

AUG _______722 _ DonSutherland1

SEP _______ 750 _ RodneyS

OCT _______690 _ Roger Smith _ (so_whats_happening 687 lost 7 pts to late pen)

NOV _______ 656 _ Rhino16 _____ wxallannj 648

Summary of contest wins, best scores 2014 to 2023

By end of 2023, 120 contests and 10 years of contests will be complete. This table will be updated each month until then. For each element scored, +field means additional wins only against current eleven regular players (not including Stormchaser Chuck or R ino16), and that format also exists for last three groups (winter snowfall, summer max, extreme forecasts, four seasons _ nine years tracked) but no headings identify add-on values. A score of 0.5 indicates a tied result except for a conversion to best against current field from a tied win.

Best monthly score over ten years is shown in brackets beside forecaster name.

FORECASTER _____ Wins (Mo) _ +field __ total ___ Wins (Yr) _ +field __ total ___ Snow __ Summer __ Extreme __ Four Seasons

DonSutherland1 (802) __ 21 _____ 8.5 _____29.5 ______ 3 _______ 1 _______ 4 _______ 1 _______ 1 _______ 0 ________ 1.5, 1, 2.5 __

RodneyS (794) __________19 ______ 4 _______23 _______ 3 _______ 0 _______ 3 _______2,1,3 ___ 1,2,3 ___ 0,1.5,1.5 ___ 3 ____

Roger Smith (808) ______14.5 ____ 2.5 _____ 17.0 ______ 1 _______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 6 ________ 0 ____

RJay (778) ______________ 11 ______ 3 _______14________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 1 _______ 1,0.5,1.5 ___0.5, 0, 0.5 ____

wxallannj (770) __________6.5 ______3 ______ 9.5 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 2 _______ 0 ________ 1 ____

wxdude64 (792) _________6.5_____ 0.5______ 7.0 ______ 1 _______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 0,1,1 _____ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Midlo Snow Maker (746) __5 ______ --_______ 5 ________ 0 _______--_______ 0 ________ 1 _______0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

BKViking (744) ___________4.5 _____ 2.5 _____7.0 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 1 _______0,1,1 ______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Scotty L (SD) __ (744) ____ 4 ______ 0 _______ 4 ________ 1 _______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 1 _______ 1 ________ 0 ________ 0 ____

Maxim (698) ______________ 3 ______ --_______ 3 _______ 0 _______--_______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0.5 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

so_whats_happening(728)_2.5*_____0 ______2.5*_______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Tom (756) _________________ 2 ______ 1 _______ 3 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0, 1, 1 ___ 1 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Damage in Tolland (714) __ 2 ______ -- ______ 2 ________ 0 _______ --_______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 1 ________ 2 ________ 0 ____

rainsucks (725) ___________ 2 ______ --_______ 2 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Stebo (712) _______________ 2 ______ --_______ 2 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

hudsonvalley21 (794) _____ 1 ______ 1.5______ 2.5 ______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Mallow (810) ______________ 1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ --_______ 0 _______ 0 _______1.5 _______0 ________ 0 ____

StormchaserChuck (724) __1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Isotherm (760) _____________1 ______ --_______ 0 ________ 1 _______ --_______ 1 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 1 ____

OHweather (754) __________1 ______ --_______ 0 ________ 0 _______ --_______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Absolute humidity _________ 1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

ksammut (774) ____________ 1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Snoski14 ___________________ 1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Mercurial ___________________ 1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ --_______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Orangeburg Wx (682) ______ 1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Yoda (690) _________________ 1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

CPick79 (N of Pike) ________0.5 ____ -- ______ 0.5 ______ 0 _______-- _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

mikehobbyst ________________1 ______ --_______ 1 ________ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

Rhino16 _____________________1 _______-- _______ 1 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

CCM ________________________0 ______ --_______ 0 _______ 0 _______ --_______ 0 _______ 0 _______ 1 _______ 0 ________ 0 ____

* so_whats_happening had a higher raw score by four points than Oct 2023 contest winner Roger S but 1% late penalties on seven of nine reduced it to three points lower.

(following not counted against wins above)

Consensus (756) ___________ 2

Normal (720) _______________ 4

Note: Best scores 810 Mallow and 808 Roger Smith, also hudsonvalley21 (794) occurred in same month (June 2014). blazes556, not a monthly winner at any point, scored 778.

April 2014 also produced notably good scores, DonS 802 and Mallow 798, and goobagooba, despite never winning a month, had a score of 772 (also 756 in June 2014).

Forecasters with no listed high score have not broken 720 so far and a later search will hopefully uncover actual high scores, also cannot confirm some of lower entries for high score.

Will continue this project to completion later in 2023, in time to move it to end of annual 2023 roundup.

Somewhat sadly, I can see the field of forecasters slowly reducing to the current core, and you wonder if some are still active at all, but it is what it is.

UPDATED for NOV 2023 and SUMMER MAX 2023

RodneyS · September 20, 2023

Awesome job for many years, Roger -- many thanks. :clap:

wxdude64 · September 20, 2023

^^ Agree with above, thanks for all the work you put into this Roger! ^^

Roger Smith · September 22, 2023

Thanks, all done now except to update to end of 2023 ... also the projections are updated and scoring also updated in post before the historical (or hysterical) overview.

Roger Smith · September 25, 2023

I moved recent post of September anomalies to current post, and will move preliminary scoring to next post, so as not to disrupt the thread.

First reports on anomalies and projections ...

___________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

13 Sep __ (anom 12d) ____ +5.7 _ +5.3 _ +5.6 ___ +2.7 _ +2.3 _ +5.3 ___ +2.9 _ +1.8 __ 0.0

22 Sep __ (anom 21d) ____ +2.9 _ +2.2 _ +3.8 ___ +1.3 _ +0.5 _ +4.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +0.2

13 Sep __ (p anom 30d) __ +3.5 _ +3.3 _ +3.5 ___ +2.5 _ +2.1 _ +3.3 ___ +1.8 _ +2.5 __+1.2

22 Sep __ (p anom 30d) __ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ +3.0 ___ +1.5 _ +0.5 _ +3.0 ___ +2.5 _ +2.5 ___ 0.0

27 Sep __ (p anom 30d) __ +1.0 __ 0.0 _ +2.0 ___ +3.0 _ +0.5 _ +4.0 ___ +2.5 _ +2.5 ___ 0.0

1 Oct ___ final anomalies __+1.0 _+0.2 _ +1.8 ___ +3.2 _ +0.9 _ +4.8 ___ +3.2 _ +2.0 __- 0.6

_______

(Sep 13) _ Projections based on +2 anoms for Sep 13-30 except for DEN +1 and PHX +3. Scoring would be good, consensus at 770 from values now listed.

(Sep 22) _ New projections a bit cooler in general, assuming near normal in east to +3 in parts of west but SEA closer to average. New estimated scores will follow.

(Sep 27) _ Projections adjusted as it has generally been cooler in east and warmer in west.

(Oct 1) _ Final anomalies posted, scoring is being adjusted.

Roger Smith · September 25, 2023

Final Scoring for September 2023

FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ TOTAL

RodneyS __________________ 94 _ 66 _ 90 __ 250 __ 96 _ 82 _ 76 __ 254 __504 __ 92 _ 68 _ 86 __ 246 ___ 750

DonSutherland 1 __________ 80 _ 62 _100 __242 __ 94 _ 78 _ 60 __ 232 __ 474 __ 92 _100 _ 76 __ 268 ___742

BKViking __________________ 78 _ 54 _ 88 __ 220 __ 92 _ 64 _ 44 __ 200 __ 420 __ 74 _100 _ 82 __ 256 ___ 676

___ Consensus ____________ 70 _ 56 _ 82 __ 208 __ 96 _ 76 _ 44 __ 216 __ 424 __ 74 _ 90 _ 82 __ 246 ___ 670

Rhino16 ___________________ 96 _ 92 _ 72 __ 260 __ 60 _100_ 20 __ 180 __ 440 __ 58 _ 66 _100 __224 ___ 664

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 64 _ 56 _ 82 __ 202 __ 84 _ 68 _ 52 __ 204 __ 406 __ 78 _ 94 _ 74 __ 246 ___ 652

wxallannj _________________ 60 _ 40 _ 68 __ 168 __ 96 _ 82 _ 32 __ 210 __ 378 __ 86 _ 90 _ 96 __ 272 ___ 650

Scotty Lightning __________ 90 _ 84 _ 84 __ 258 __ 56 _ 88 _ 44 __ 188 __ 446 __ 56 _ 80 _ 68 __ 204 ___ 650

so_whats_happening _____ 70 _ 62 _ 80 __ 212 __ 94 _ 76 _ 42 __ 212 __ 424 __ 64 _ 92 _ 62 __ 218 ___ 642

wxdude64 ________________ 76 _ 86 _ 52 ___ 214 __ 30 _ 98 _ 28 __ 156 __ 370 __ 64 _ 98 _ 82 __ 244 ___ 614

Tom _______________________ 58 _ 36 _ 70 __ 164 __ 86 _ 74 _ 34 ___ 194 __ 358 __ 74 _ 82 _ 76 __ 232 ___ 590

StormchaserChuck 1 ______ 50 _ 34 _ 72 __ 156 __ 84 _ 42 _ 78 __ 204 __ 360 __ 46 _ 60 _ 96 __ 202 ___ 562

___ Normal _________________80 _ 96_ 64 __ 240 __ 36 _ 82 _ 04 __ 122 __ 362 __ 36 _ 60 _ 88__ 184 ___ 546

RJay ______________________ 30 _ 14 _ 46 __ 090 __ 54 _ 38 _ 80 __ 176 __ 266 __ 84 _ 100 _ 88 __272 ___ 538

Roger Smith _______________ 44 _ 14 _ 16 __ 074 __ 54 _ 42 _ 76 ___ 176 __ 250 __ 86 _ 90 _ 68 __ 244 ___ 494

persistence (Aug anoms) _ 66 _ 74 _ 46 __ 186 ___ 46 _ 70 _ 80 __ 196 __ 382 __ 62 _ 52 _ 38 __ 152 ___ 534

_____________________________________________________

Extreme Forecast Report

DCA __ (+1.0) is a win for Rhino16 (+0.8) and a loss for wxdude64 (-0.2) and Normal.

NYC __ (+0.2) is a win for Rhino16 (+0.6) and a loss for wxdude64 (-0.5), Normal shares win.

BOS, ORD, ATL, DEN, PHX _ did not qualify, outcomes close to consensus or at least second most extreme not high score.

IAH __ (+5.0) is a win for RJay (+4.0).

SEA __ (-0.6) is a win for Rhino16 (-0.6) and a loss for Stormchaser Chuck.

__ ================================================================= __