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Pittsburgh/Western PA Spring 2023 Discussion


Ahoff
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37 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Where is tomorrow's rain originating from? After this stuff pushes through, the radar looks sparse, but I assume the big stuff is in whatever is currently over Oklahoma and it will pull from the Gulf?

 

The sun right now is surprising me.

I think basically the frontal boundary sags southward but remains close enough to continue the rainy pattern, then surges back north as a warm front for Saturday and spawns more rain.

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2 hours ago, TimB said:

I think basically the frontal boundary sags southward but remains close enough to continue the rainy pattern, then surges back north as a warm front for Saturday and spawns more rain.

So, is tomorrow the wettest day or Saturday, or pretty even?  Originally I thought I saw Friday was big day.

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17 hours ago, Ahoff said:

So, is tomorrow the wettest day or Saturday, or pretty even?  Originally I thought I saw Friday was big day.

To that point, today looks pretty dry. Point and click centered at the airport forecasts a similar qpf tomorrow as yesterday.

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1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Couple of weakish convective showers rolled through, but also tapped into that wind potential. If anywhere manages to get a stronger storm things could get real with the wind.

Yes same here. We had a light shower and winds gusted close to 50 mph last hour. These things are moving super fast. 

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2 hours ago, TimB said:

This entire pattern wasn’t even all that wet like they were saying it would be.

Got 2.051" since the Thursday early AM storms rolled through.  I'd be ok with it if it had gently rained more/less all day but 1.134" in less than an hour on Thursday afternoon, 0.528" in 15 minutes according to the two radar sweeps, shot my nerves since there are still leaves everywhere, no plants blooming trying to soak it all up yet, so water pooled everywhere.  I'm knocking on wood still because, even though the soil is inches-deep muck now, none of the trees around our property came down in the (undersold, imo) wind event today.

Gettin' real tired of these Gulf Coast style 15-30min torrents that neither KPIT, the WPC, or even the SPC give much more than maybe a sentence or two like we're some afterthought up here.

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17 minutes ago, donyewest said:

Got 2.051" since the Thursday early AM storms rolled through.  I'd be ok with it if it had gently rained more/less all day but 1.134" in less than an hour on Thursday afternoon, 0.528" in 15 minutes according to the two radar sweeps, shot my nerves since there are still leaves everywhere, no plants blooming trying to soak it all up yet, so water pooled everywhere.  I'm knocking on wood still because, even though the soil is inches-deep muck now, none of the trees around our property came down in the (undersold, imo) wind event today.

Gettin' real tired of these Gulf Coast style 15-30min torrents that neither KPIT, the WPC, or even the SPC give much more than maybe a sentence or two like we're some afterthought up here.

Thing is, they were expecting the heaviest rain south of the city. Sounds like it was bad north too. In Allegheny County proper, maybe 1.25” or so over a 4 day period, which is above normal but not notably wet.

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16 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Seems like the rainier forecast for this week is busting like over the weekend.  That's good.  We'll see what this weekend has, or if it can bust low again.

NWS Pittsburgh is really talking up the wind threat for Saturday, maybe similar to or stronger than this past Saturday.

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High Wind Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
145 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023

PAZ021-029-031-073-075-077-WVZ002>004-012-021-509-310200-
/O.EXB.KPBZ.HW.A.0002.230401T1200Z-230402T0000Z/
Allegheny-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Fayette-Indiana-Brooke-
Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Including the cities of Canonsburg, Indiana, Murrysville,
Waynesburg, Washington, Fairmont, New Martinsville, Pittsburgh
Metro Area, Greensburg, Latrobe, Morgantown, Wellsburg,
Follansbee, Lower Burrell, Uniontown, Moundsville, Wheeling, New
Kensington, and Monessen
145 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest and western Pennsylvania. Portions
  of northern and the northern panhandle of West Virginia.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates.

&&

$$

 

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This is starting to look more and more like yet another garden variety wind advisory event for the lowlands. Was hoping for a 2/24/19 type event. If it’s going to be windy, might as well do it all the way.

Looks like we’re going to squeeze out a just barely above normal March, keeping intact our chances at every month of 2023 being above normal.

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15 minutes ago, TimB said:

This is starting to look more and more like yet another garden variety wind advisory event for the lowlands. Was hoping for a 2/24/19 type event. If it’s going to be windy, might as well do it all the way.

Looks like we’re going to squeeze out a just barely above normal March, keeping intact our chances at every month of 2023 being above normal.

Where do you see that?  60+ gusts don't seem garden variety.  This morning Ron Smiley said he expects wind warnings to be raised soon.  Now I may have missed the exact location he expects that, but he did say even Pittsburgh could see over 60 mph gusts.

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34 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Where do you see that?  60+ gusts don't seem garden variety.  This morning Ron Smiley said he expects wind warnings to be raised soon.  Now I may have missed the exact location he expects that, but he did say even Pittsburgh could see over 60 mph gusts.

NWS seemed to be pulling back on that in some of their forecast discussions/grids/zone forecasts. I’m not sure that means anything, it seems like they’ve put the 60ish gusts back into the southern half of the county. On second thought, not sure I want a 2/24/19 type event. I think that one involved widespread power outages.

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