It's Always Sunny Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 I have now included Nov-Mar average snowfall for KBOS for every composite. What was quite surprising while compiling this is that when comparing El Nino vs. La Nina as standalone, KBOS finishes with nearly the same amount of snowfall on average. I know this is only one site but wasn't expecting that. Just further proves that ENSO is one piece to the puzzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 3 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said: I have now included Nov-Mar average snowfall for KBOS for every composite. What was quite surprising while compiling this is that when comparing El Nino vs. La Nina as standalone, KBOS finishes with nearly the same amount of snowfall on average. I know this is only one site but wasn't expecting that. Just further proves that ENSO is one piece to the puzzle. Yea, I don't buy that. Quite certain el nino is snowier here. The vast majority of Boston's snowiest seasons are el nino, save for 1995-1996 and 2010-2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I don't buy that. Quite certain el nino is snowier here. The vast majority of Boston's snowiest seasons are el nino, save for 1995-1996 and 2010-2011. We know weak west Nino’s typically are the best for the Boston area. However we have had some snowy Nina’s that maybe although not block busters…….might cause the results to be not far off. The 60s were solid winters and many were Nina’s. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 I don’t have the raw data in front of me, but just mentioning maybe a reason why they might be close together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t have the raw data in front of me, but just mentioning maybe a reason why they might be close together. Dryslot Jeff has the table with snow for all years and ENSO stage. It's is extremely close. Data speaketh the truth 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I don't buy that. Quite certain el nino is snowier here. The vast majority of Boston's snowiest seasons are el nino, save for 1995-1996 and 2010-2011. 60s even it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: We know weak west Nino’s typically are the best for the Boston area. However we have had some snowy Nina’s that maybe although not block busters…….might cause the results to be not far off. The 60s were solid winters and many were Nina’s. I understand that it's probably close. I'm not trying to imply that it isn't. I think the main reason that it's close is due to the fact that strong el nino events can be more hostile than strong la nina. However, weaker el nino events are better and that isn't debatable. I'll crunch the numbers for KBOS sometime this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Dryslot Jeff has the table with snow for all years and ENSO stage. It's is extremely close. Data speaketh the truth No argument on the close part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Well for KBOS, El Nino edges out La Nina by a seasonal average (Nov-Mar) of only 0.3". WP El Nino (weak Ninos) correlate the best with productive winters for KBOS as said above. For La Nina, the data I compiled has Basin Wide and EP Nina's correlating the best. If we're talking strength, moderate Nina correlates the best by a large margin. Now as we know KBOS gets f*cked by the CF a lot so numbers probably aren't as reliable as say somewhere west of 95 where that isn't as much of a concern. Time allowing I may sample KOWD, KBED or KLWM and see what I get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 1 hour ago, It's Always Sunny said: Well for KBOS, El Nino edges out La Nina by a seasonal average (Nov-Mar) of only 0.3". WP El Nino (weak Ninos) correlate the best with productive winters for KBOS as said above. For La Nina, the data I compiled has Basin Wide and EP Nina's correlating the best. If we're talking strength, moderate Nina correlates the best by a large margin. Now as we know KBOS gets f*cked by the CF a lot so numbers probably aren't as reliable as say somewhere west of 95 where that isn't as much of a concern. Time allowing I may sample KOWD, KBED or KLWM and see what I get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: It's on topic....its discussion about ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Am I missing something? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's on topic....its discussion about ENSO. No I posted the link to Jeffa snow tables with enso state 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 13 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: Am I missing something? 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's on topic....its discussion about ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Ah ok that makes more sense. I saw the link you posted and it appeared to be Ray's original post I was confused. I'll check this out later. Thanks for the share! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: No I posted the link to Jeffa snow tables with enso state Oh, cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 1 hour ago, It's Always Sunny said: Ah ok that makes more sense. I saw the link you posted and it appeared to be Ray's original post I was confused. I'll check this out later. Thanks for the share! Yea, same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Had it in the wrong thread so i moved here where it belongs. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 @dryslot this is nicely put together! Does it only go through the 2013-2014 season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 12 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said: @dryslot this is nicely put together! Does it only go through the 2013-2014 season? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 5 hours ago, dryslot said: Yes Do you have separate averages for La Nina vs El Nino or just comprehensive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 10 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: Do you have separate averages for La Nina vs El Nino or just comprehensive? All i have is comprehensive that I've attached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 The interesting thing about Ninas vs Ninos is Boston is better off with a super Nina than a moderate Nino, but is also better off with a weak Nino than any Nina (in general based on the data). In practice it’s more complicated than this, it would be interesting to see how the data looks if you break it down by structure, when said enso event peaks, the impact the enso state of the previous winter has, ect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, George001 said: The interesting thing about Ninas vs Ninos is Boston is better off with a super Nina than a moderate Nino, but is also better off with a weak Nino than any Nina (in general based on the data). In practice it’s more complicated than this, it would be interesting to see how the data looks if you break it down by structure, when said enso event peaks, the impact the enso state of the previous winter has, ect. I am going to develop classification and composite for el nino during the upcoming year, like I have for la nina. East-based el nino is generally more hostile, and I'm sure the data will reveal this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am going to develop classification and composite for el nino during the upcoming year, like I have for la nina. East-based el nino is generally more hostile, and I'm sure the data will reveal this. Yeah I've compiled Nino composites and east is most hostile, however basin wide for KBOS is only 1" more between Nov-Mar. Central & west Ninos correlate with most snowfall for KBOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 For KBOS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: For KBOS: West Pacific el nino is modoki el nino...what exactly are you distinguishing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: West Pacific el nino is modoki el nino...what exactly are you distinguishing? Anything non east based or basin wide is called modoki per research studies i've read, however I've found enough disparity to create a WP el nino, CP el nino & modoki section. For the modoki section, I classified it as where you have cold-neutral anomalies on both sides of warm pool so I made that a thing of it's own. It's my own categorization so there will certainly be some differences on what others had. Also, mine is based in 1991-2020 climo so I'm sure some of these will change once I begin using the appropriate climo periods. Either way, the west and central/modoki ninos correlate the best to higher snowfall like you have i believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 30, 2022 Author Share Posted September 30, 2022 Well with Fiona into Puerto Rico and then Ian things got a bit busy so fell behind a bit on this. But I completed GIFs looking at OLR Anomalies. Last page I posted OLR Anomalies for Weak, Moderate, and Strong/Super-Strong La Nina Winter's. West-Based La Nina Winter (DJF) Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies (Using Ensemble ONI): East-Based La Nina Winter (DJF) Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies (Using Ensemble ONI): Basin-Wide La Nina Winter (DJF) Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies (Using Ensemble ONI): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 30, 2022 Author Share Posted September 30, 2022 Weak West-Based La Nina Winter (DJF) Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies (Using Ensemble ONI + ONI): Moderate West-Based La Nina Winter (DJF) Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies (Using Ensemble ONI + ONI): Strong/Super-Strong West-Based La Nina Winter (DJF) Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies (Using Ensemble ONI + ONI): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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