weatherwiz Posted September 30, 2022 Author Share Posted September 30, 2022 Weak East-Based La Nina Winter (DJF) Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies (Using Ensemble ONI + ONI): Moderate East-Based La Nina Winter (DJF) Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies (Using Ensemble ONI + ONI): Strong/Super Strong East-Based La Nina Winter (DJF) Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies (Using Ensemble ONI + ONI): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 30, 2022 Author Share Posted September 30, 2022 Weak Basin-Wide La Nina Winter (DJF) Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies (Using Ensemble ONI + ONI): Moderate Basin-Wide La Nina Winter (DJF) Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies (Using Ensemble ONI + ONI): Strong/Super-Strong Basin-Wide La Nina Winter (DJF) Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies (Using Ensemble ONI + ONI): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 30, 2022 Author Share Posted September 30, 2022 So from all this you can see that even with similar Nina episodes of strength and structure there can be large variations in tropical forcing. I also want to incorporate sigma velocity potential as well into this. But from here going to try and draw some conclusions regarding the tropical forcing and see if some strong correlations can be made to temperature anomalies. However, I think (and I believe Ray mentioned this several times) there likely will be a stronger correlation to [500mb] height anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 1, 2022 Author Share Posted October 1, 2022 My last post yielded an incorrect assessment. I'm sitting here looking at my printouts of ALL La Nina winter OLR Anomalies and there is the striking correlation of +OLR Anomalies within the ENSO regions which makes sense given that is a signature of La Nina events. The composites have the majority of -OLR anomalies around the Indian Ocean, however, there are some Nina events in which there were -OLR anomalies farther east. This is probably a terrible post as there is already an answer to this, however, I am posting as I am interpreting but I am curious to see if there is a stronger consensus when breaking down via strength and structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 @weatherwizHave you been able to successfully use the 1941-1970 climo base period? When I try to use it, I get a 1991-2020 default. 1951-2010 and 1981-2010 work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2022 Author Share Posted October 6, 2022 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @weatherwizHave you been able to successfully use the 1941-1970 climo base period? When I try to use it, I get a 1991-2020 default. 1951-2010 and 1981-2010 work out. hmm yeah I don't see to have any issues with the 1941-1970 climo period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: hmm yeah I don't see to have any issues with the 1941-1970 climo period. Try it with the ENSO region SSTs.....it defaults to 1991-2020 using NCEP/NCAR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2022 Author Share Posted October 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Try it with the ENSO region SSTs.....it defaults to 1991-2020 using NCEP/NCAR 1 Ahh I think I know why. If you're using NCEP/NCAR 1 that dataset doesn't start until January of 1948 so a climo period of 1941-1970 wouldn't work for NCEP/NCAR. What I do is use either 20th Century Reanalysis V3 or V2c for years up through 1980. I then switch to NCEP/NCAR from 1981 as you can then compare to 1951-1980 climo period 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Ahh I think I know why. If you're using NCEP/NCAR 1 that dataset doesn't start until January of 1948 so a climo period of 1941-1970 wouldn't work for NCEP/NCAR. What I do is use either 20th Century Reanalysis V3 or V2c for years up through 1980. I then switch to NCEP/NCAR from 1981 as you can then compare to 1951-1980 climo period I figured...I hate having to go heterogeneous with respect to databases. I was hoping I was missing something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2022 Author Share Posted October 6, 2022 29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I figured...I hate having to go heterogeneous with respect to databases. I was hoping I was missing something. Yeah it's a pain. There's also the issue too that not all variables exists within each database. For example, for OLR I had to use 20th century reanalysis V2C b/c there was no OLR data in V3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 Still a very well coupled La Niña in place: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 16, 2022 Share Posted October 16, 2022 This Niña is definitely a basin-wide event now and it’s been a very, very long time Nino region 4 has been this cold. Can’t remember the last time it was over -1.0C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 16, 2022 Share Posted October 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This Niña is definitely a basin-wide event now and it’s been a very, very long time Nino region 4 has been this cold. Can’t remember the last time it was over -1.0C A very warm winter for US/Europe would be ideal given the energy crisis. This is good news 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 18, 2022 Author Share Posted October 18, 2022 Does anyone know if there is a dataset for the Equatorial SOI? I find alot of literature on it, but can't seem to find a dataset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2022 Author Share Posted October 25, 2022 There is something that is baffling me. I've been doing composites for Sea-level Pressure Anomalies and exploring the SOI and moreso the Equatorial SOI. La Nina's result in +ESOI values with higher than usual pressure in the eastern Pacific and lower than usual pressure in the western Pacific. Conversely, the opposite is true during EL Nino periods. In order to produce some illustrations to see this visually, I took the top 5 positive/negative ESOI values for December. The left is during Nina's and the right is during Nino's. I am not seeing an opposite composite. Am I interpreting something wrong? Focusing on the wrong region (I'm focusing on equator, however, it appears there may be a bit of a correlation look closer to 30N): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2022 Author Share Posted October 25, 2022 Here is December 1983 (ESOI value -3.5 which is lowest Dec value on record). Does not seem to fit the mold which is above-average EPAC below-average WPAC Here is December 1999 (ESOI values 2.4 which is highest Dec value on record). This seems to fit better (above-average EPAC below-average WPAC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 So what’s the latest with regard to the La Niña orientation, it’s strength , duration estimates and what it may mean for our winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2022 Author Share Posted October 25, 2022 27 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: So what’s the latest with regard to the La Niña orientation, it’s strength , duration estimates and what it may mean for our winter I currently don't have any thoughts. I don't feel comfortable enough attempting a long-range forecast right now. I want to continue doing research and better understand all the variables at play and the evolution of these variables through the cool season. I'm sure Ray will be posting his winter weather outlook very soon and I'm really looking forward to that. Perhaps he'll share some of his initial thoughts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2022 Author Share Posted December 24, 2022 @40/70 Benchmark when you do your composites and break ENSO events by strength, are you using peak strength of the event or what the strength of the event is during the DJF trimonthly period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 46 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: @40/70 Benchmark when you do your composites and break ENSO events by strength, are you using peak strength of the event or what the strength of the event is during the DJF trimonthly period? Peak intensity of the event, but I tend to designate structure more by winter period.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2022 Author Share Posted December 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Peak intensity of the event, but I tend to designate structure more by winter period.. Gotcha! That’s what I had been doing too. I was curious if it was worth it making a subset based on strength/structure during the DJF period. Doing this would negate lag but would be curious to see if there are any differences. The biggest challenges though are events which are like borderline with strength. that’s why I also want to look into other ENSO indices to help define too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Gotcha! That’s what I had been doing too. I was curious if it was worth it making a subset based on strength/structure during the DJF period. Doing this would negate lag but would be curious to see if there are any differences. The biggest challenges though are events which are like borderline with strength. that’s why I also want to look into other ENSO indices to help define too. I incorporate MEI into intensity ranking... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 31, 2022 Author Share Posted December 31, 2022 Well I figured may as well start working on EL Nino composites. Grabbed SSTA's for all EL Nino's to try and break down into west-based, basin-wide, and east-based. I found this much more challenging then with La Nina's. The breakdown I came up with was West-based: 5-events Basin-wide: 25-events East-based: 10-events One thing I noticed was alot of variance in SSTA's across the north-central Pacific and just west off the West Coast. I don't recall such variance with La Nina, but I never saved the SSTA composites for Nina's so I have to go back and do that. But given this I think I may try to also take a focus on SSTA's outside of the ENSO region when assessing EL Nino events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 10 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Well I figured may as well start working on EL Nino composites. Grabbed SSTA's for all EL Nino's to try and break down into west-based, basin-wide, and east-based. I found this much more challenging then with La Nina's. The breakdown I came up with was West-based: 5-events Basin-wide: 25-events East-based: 10-events One thing I noticed was alot of variance in SSTA's across the north-central Pacific and just west off the West Coast. I don't recall such variance with La Nina, but I never saved the SSTA composites for Nina's so I have to go back and do that. But given this I think I may try to also take a focus on SSTA's outside of the ENSO region when assessing EL Nino events Which 5 were west based? 14-15, 09-10, 04-05, 02-03 and either 77-78 or 57-58? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 2, 2023 Author Share Posted January 2, 2023 On 1/1/2023 at 1:21 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Which 5 were west based? 14-15, 09-10, 04-05, 02-03 and either 77-78 or 57-58? 1929-1930 1958-1959 1968-1969 2004-2005 2014-2015 2009-2010 I did as basin wide 2002-2003 basin wide 1977-1978 basin wide 1957-1958 basin wide I may have to definitely look more into OLR to perhaps do a better breakdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 11 hours ago, weatherwiz said: 1929-1930 1958-1959 1968-1969 2004-2005 2014-2015 2009-2010 I did as basin wide 2002-2003 basin wide 1977-1978 basin wide 1957-1958 basin wide I may have to definitely look more into OLR to perhaps do a better breakdown. 09-10 was def west based...even though it was basin wide 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2023 Author Share Posted January 3, 2023 11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 09-10 was def west based...even though it was basin wide IDK...I think this can go either way but I certainly can see your argument for west-based. the core of the anomalies are certainly positioned towards the western edge of the ENSO region. May have to really go back and do another look through. This may have to be approached differently then cold anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: IDK...I think this can go either way but I certainly can see your argument for west-based. the core of the anomalies are certainly positioned towards the western edge of the ENSO region. May have to really go back and do another look through. This may have to be approached differently then cold anomalies. With an ENSO event that strong, they are just about always basinwide by strict definition...that is about as west biased as you will ever see at that intensity. Text book modoki. Check our of VP from that season that I posted in my last blog update.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2023 Author Share Posted January 3, 2023 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: With an ENSO event that strong, they are just about always basinwide by strict definition...that is about as west biased as you will ever see at that intensity. Text book modoki. Check our of VP from that season that I posted in my last blog update.. I will definitely check that out! I'll admit...I don't really understand modoki events and what really classifies an event as modoki. I've read around a bit but find differing opinions. Something I need to look into more. I know you've highlighted them in the past so I'll go back through some of your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 3 hours ago, weatherwiz said: IDK...I think this can go either way but I certainly can see your argument for west-based. the core of the anomalies are certainly positioned towards the western edge of the ENSO region. May have to really go back and do another look through. This may have to be approached differently then cold anomalies. Look how weak the positive anomalies are near S America... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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