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Fall 2022 Pittsburgh/Western PA Discussion


Ahoff
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2 hours ago, TimB said:

If the remainder of the month overperforms, might not be a BN month. Current forecast would put us at about -1 for the month.

Seems they've been forecasting too high lately with high temperatures.  I'm sure we'll hit 70 a couple times, but I think it'll still stay below average overall.

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20 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Only 17.77% of the country not in some drought designation level, which is the lowest amount since they've been producing the drought monitors (which go all the way back to 1/4/2000).

image.thumb.png.63eb155b1624ad2ef3b512008af0ec8e.png

I assume we're in the 17%?  That may change in the coming week, with so few rain chances.

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4 hours ago, TimB said:

Pretty impressive radiational cooling outside of the UHI last night. Was remarking to my wife how quick it got cold as soon as the sun went down and it looks like a lot of the area achieved mid 30s (36 at PIT). For contrast, AGC only got to the mid 40s.

Keeping that colder than normal October likely.

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On 10/23/2022 at 4:35 PM, Ahoff said:

Keeping that colder than normal October likely.

Yeah, it’d be nearly impossible to get to normal or above at this point. Second half of the week looks sufficiently close to normal to secure a BN month. On a related note, looks like today’s high was 73 so that record cold max for October is no longer in play.

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20 hours ago, TimB said:

Yeah, it’d be nearly impossible to get to normal or above at this point. Second half of the week looks sufficiently close to normal to secure a BN month. On a related note, looks like today’s high was 73 so that record cold max for October is no longer in play.

Yeah, it was a long shot, but still one of the coldest max temps for October ever.

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Not to be overly pedantic but official records did not move to PIT until September 15, 1952, at which time the airport was called The Greater Pittsburgh Airport. I realize some sources incorrectly show data back to 1949 as belonging to PIT, but this is incorrect. The airport didn't even open until 1952. You can see the actual records in the NCEI records vault (see September 1952 below). So 1949-50, 1950-51 and 1951-52, which all appear in the table above, were actually observed at AGC not PIT.

image.png.fba5e607244741ef51ae76b3fb22794a.png

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54 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Not to be overly pedantic but official records did not move to PIT until September 15, 1952, at which time the airport was called The Greater Pittsburgh Airport. I realize some sources incorrectly show data back to 1949 as belonging to PIT, but this is incorrect. The airport didn't even open until 1952. You can see the actual records in the NCEI records vault (see September 1952 below). So 1949-50, 1950-51 and 1951-52, which all appear in the table above, were actually observed at AGC not PIT.

image.png.fba5e607244741ef51ae76b3fb22794a.png

Thanks for the clarification. So that would make this the 9th time in 71 years at PIT that the first freeze hasn’t occurred by the end of October and first time it’s ever happened in back to back years at PIT. 

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Ten years ago today was the last time NWS Pittsburgh issued a blizzard warning. Same for Charleston, WV; Blacksburg, VA; and Morristown, TN offices. Oddly enough, it looks like less than 2 months later, a swath of blizzard warnings occurred from Arkansas to northern Ohio, which was the last time any of those areas have seen the issuance of blizzard warnings.

phenomena:BZ::significance:W::e:all::_r:t::dpi:100.png

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On 10/25/2022 at 3:10 PM, TimB said:

Latest first freezes at PIT since the airport became the official site. Seems likely we crack the top 5 at this point, as a freeze is unlikely in the next 10 days.614E22A9-497B-4B6B-BC83-66961DF34941.jpeg.610e8cfd3fcdaa3c535b175230db4eed.jpeg

Looks like it made it down to freezing this morning. I was going to say not to count the chickens before they hatch. Very easy to get a “surprise” freeze this time of the year with the long nights if it’s a bit clearer or calmer than expected. We had heavy frost here each of the last two mornings.

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2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Looks like it made it down to freezing this morning. I was going to say not to count the chickens before they hatch. Very easy to get a “surprise” freeze this time of the year with the long nights if it’s a bit clearer or calmer than expected. We had heavy frost here each of the last two mornings.

We really have overperformed on lows a lot lately. Must have radiated out nicely just before sunrise, when I looked earlier this morning the last 5-min obs was 36 at 7:05. In any event, we got our October freeze.

Edit: looks like we actually dropped from 38 on the 6:51 hourly obs all the way to 32 at 7:20. 

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On 10/29/2022 at 8:37 AM, TheClimateChanger said:

Looks like it made it down to freezing this morning. I was going to say not to count the chickens before they hatch. Very easy to get a “surprise” freeze this time of the year with the long nights if it’s a bit clearer or calmer than expected. We had heavy frost here each of the last two mornings.

I thought the same when I saw those lows forecast last week.  They were getting low, and we have sunk lower than forecast in lows this month, so I thought...maybe.

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October comes in at -2.7, with the lows contributing more to the negative departure than the highs (-3.8 lows, -1.6 highs). November looks to be very much the opposite, with the models keeping unseasonable warmth around longer and longer and no sign of a pattern change in sight, only the occasional “cooldown” to normal or slightly above in between periods of warmth.

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46 minutes ago, TimB said:

October comes in at -2.7, with the lows contributing more to the negative departure than the highs (-3.8 lows, -1.6 highs). November looks to be very much the opposite, with the models keeping unseasonable warmth around longer and longer and no sign of a pattern change in sight, only the occasional “cooldown” to normal or slightly above in between periods of warmth.

Going to need to rationalize like some people in other boards....warm Nov means cold Dec. 

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Sunday appears at this juncture to be the day with the best shot at a low that doesn’t drop below 60 (though it’s very attainable on Monday too) - if that happens, it will be the latest in the season a low in the 60s has ever occurred since the start of observations at KPIT.

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22 hours ago, TimB said:

October comes in at -2.7, with the lows contributing more to the negative departure than the highs (-3.8 lows, -1.6 highs). November looks to be very much the opposite, with the models keeping unseasonable warmth around longer and longer and no sign of a pattern change in sight, only the occasional “cooldown” to normal or slightly above in between periods of warmth.

This has been one of the most enjoyable Fall seasons I can remember, pleasantly warm during the days with sunshine, fairly dry, and cool to cold evenings and overnights to keep it feeling like Fall. I've gotten several little outdoor projects completed I thought would be a next Spring tasks, spent lots of time outdoors, and saved a decent chunk of change on heating with minimal furnace usage.

Our neighborhood Trick-or-Treat was Saturday evening, and it was probably the best since I've had kids (10+ years). Pretty Hollywood-esque scene with just past peak color contrasted on clear blue evening sky that fades to a cool crisp night. No concerns with umbrellas or trying to fit costumes over three layers to keep warm.

My personal preference, but if you are going to have above average temperatures mid October - Thanksgiving-ish time frame gives the most bang for the buck. Unseasonable cold this time of year is largely useless for snow and it gives the hope the pattern needs to flip at some point.  If things still look warm in another 2-3 weeks I'll start to get worried about potential wasted winter opportunities but until then I'll take this warmer weather.

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20 hours ago, north pgh said:

Anyone else getting ready for winter? I've officially started looking at models. :beer:

Yeah, I'm enjoying the great fall weather, but totally ready to shift gears once mother nature decides to flip the switch.

Looks like maybe a good soaking for the area with tropical remnants. Why can't we get a storm like this as all snow in winter? :lol:

gfs_apcpn_neus_22.thumb.png.c2144cff91725c6ee9d5d9f2b3e2c70b.png

 

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It's a shame that the remnants of Nicole couldn't time up better with the cold air pressing in. Could have gotten a classic La Nina snow storm a la November 1950. I wonder if we'll see any big storms this winter with the La Nina conditions in the Pacific. It was 80 degrees on November 1, 1950 - big warm spell that year end of October into the beginning of November.

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6 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Yeah, I'm enjoying the great fall weather, but totally ready to shift gears once mother nature decides to flip the switch.

Looks like maybe a good soaking for the area with tropical remnants. Why can't we get a storm like this as all snow in winter? :lol:

 

 

That 1/17 storm had potential, just didn't have the mid level cooperation. SMH

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