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Fall 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion


Carvers Gap
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We are not quite to the bell lap which is winter, but if we are running the 1500m on the track...this is just about lap 3.  Man, what a beautiful day out there.  This has been a glorious stretch of days for what normally is the sweltering, sweaty mess which is August.  How long does it last?  IDK, but for every day like today, that is just one less day of the dog days.  One of my kids asked me this morning if it was going to be this "cold" all day.  That is not a question one gets often during August!!!!  Anyway, that is more of an observation, but indeed, this is the pattern thread for September-October-November.  Please keep the summer thread going until August is through.  However, if those thoughts begin to include September - October...then go ahead and place them here if you choose.  Hope this isn't too early to begin the Fall thread - no trying to step on any toes.

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The GFS pulled a fast one at 12z, will see if it's a blip or a trend. Several days in a row it's had a big cool shot to close out the month and begin next month. At 00z it had lows in the 40s for Sept 1st for a large part of the region. 12 hours later, lows near 75 and a heatwave with highs in the mid 90s to low 100s. At 00z Sept 1st at 1pm central the temp was forecast to be 68 in Nashville, at 12z it's now forecast to be 99. That's a mega swing. It did that often last winter too, with 30 and 40 degree temperature differences from run to run.

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Tis the season for tropical systems to increase model volatility. I was looking at some ensemble spread, reasonably tight through day 7 and then blows wide open by day 10 (looks more like day 14). Late August things.

Short-term late next week toward Labor Day I could see Tennessee Valley temps verify above current forecast. If a tropical system enters the Gulf and approaches the US (even if just on its way to elsewhere) we'll probably get subsidence heat on the north side. Oh joy!

Long-term we have Pacific action ramping up. Global models can't decide where to put the resulting troughs and ridges in the North Pacific into Alaska. China landfalls would amp up the ABNA and could be warm. Japan recurves could amp up Alaska, and bring our lovely East trough. Are you ready for some football? Weather. 

Atlantic also stays active on Ensembles the full two weeks. Deeper into September a tropical cyclone to our east can bring down cooler air. West still acts like a warm front, heat humidity and all. My gut is saying reasonable September temps - for the first time in years. 

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Euro and GFS has a recurving phoon into the Sea of Japan possiibly but it just gets absorbed by a trough.Euro seems to show a mid level ridge building into the Central Plains today in the long range so the storm(tropical gen if it happens) it seems could just meander around the Bahamas for a couple days.There seems to be a trough going through East Asia the middle of the week,so that could be a player if the storm hits between Florida and the Carolinas or OTS.Least the weather got exciting to me anyways:wub:

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Maybe the Atlantic will give us something to watch. Wall of shear in the Caribbean at the moment. Euro wants to weaken it midweek but the damage may be done. Don't forget to visit the main Tropical Headquarters too.

Meanwhile in the Pacific both the US Navy and Japan Met Agency have typhoons going straight west toward China. Forecast ends still at sea. Anyway that could bump up the ABNA which is not a cool weather pattern for North America. No surprise model extended forecasts (1-15 day) warmed up over the weekend. It's not crazy hot, but annoying after hope last week.

September is starting to look less cool, but on the optimistic side there's no reason to go blowtorch either.

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On 8/29/2022 at 12:05 PM, nrgjeff said:

Maybe the Atlantic will give us something to watch. Wall of shear in the Caribbean at the moment. Euro wants to weaken it midweek but the damage may be done. Don't forget to visit the main Tropical Headquarters too.

Meanwhile in the Pacific both the US Navy and Japan Met Agency have typhoons going straight west toward China. Forecast ends still at sea. Anyway that could bump up the ABNA which is not a cool weather pattern for North America. No surprise model extended forecasts (1-15 day) warmed up over the weekend. It's not crazy hot, but annoying after hope last week.

September is starting to look less cool, but on the optimistic side there's no reason to go blowtorch either.

Southern parts of South Korea is fixing to take a big hit by the models from the phooon.Tropical system in the  east looks like a fish storm,OTS.I'm ok with that because like you mentioned it would be like starting the furnace up again for us,unusual quiet season tho this year in the tropics,more like a NINO year.So ready for fall !!

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Euro seasonal with a classic endless summer sig all the way into November.  Looks like the ridge sets up shop out West sometime in December and carries into January.  Part of December looks quite warm on the seasonals, but the upper air pattern is centered westward which seems to signal a flip sometime about mid-month(heavy extrapolation by me) if the model is correct.  January looks good re: upper air pattern.  That would be an old fashioned winter seasonal transition.  Shoulder season so take with a HUGE grain of salt, but a La Nina pattern appears set to persist.  

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8 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

If Nina is the dominant driver , late fall and early Winter may buck the seasonal Euro November/ December Outlook. 

     

Agree.  Seasonal models seem to want to center a cold shot towards late December into January.  HOWEVER, as you aptly note, climatology would favor a cold Nov/Dec.  Not a slam dunk by any means as I am sure there are a cluster of colder Januarys(thinking of @John1122's examples from last year or the year prior).  Also, man, I am not expert on third year La Nina's.  Since really beginning to follow the wx, I don't think I have seen too many(maybe 1 or 2).  Plus, the Euro seasonals IMHO are not super accurate until the month before the winter season begins.  Lots of wiggle room right now.  Great post though!

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3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Agree.  Seasonal models seem to want to center a cold shot towards late December into January.  HOWEVER, as you aptly note, climatology would favor a cold Nov/Dec.  Not a slam dunk by any means as I am sure there are a cluster of colder Januarys(thinking of @John1122's examples from last year or the year prior).  Also, man, I am not expert on third year La Nina's.  Since really beginning to follow the wx, I don't think I have seen too many(maybe 1 or 2).  Plus, the Euro seasonals IMHO are not super accurate until the month before the winter season begins.  Lots of wiggle room right now.  Great post though!

Yeah, you are so right buddy. Third year's are almost in a class of their own. Don't know exactly why.

         This Summer's Pattern attests to that. The lack of Atlantic Tropical activity; robust Pacific. Pretty much opposite of typical Nina. 

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7 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

 

What is it, like 2 weeks after the recurve that we sometimes get a nice Canadian airmass? After yesterday evening and this AM I want more of this wonderful weather. Looked like a pretty good cool shot out in lala land on 6z GFS, trying to make its way across the US. 

Ugh.  Shortest post ever.

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The GFS is hot still, but not as hot as it was 36 hours ago, which was bonkers hot, the Canadian is cooler than the GFS and the Euro is cooler than the Canadian at D8-10. The ensembles are seemingly hotter than the ops. One thing that does appear to happen, it will get dry here during that time frame. I hate it when we get really hot and dry as leaves begin to fall due to wildfire danger literally in my back yard.

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5 hours ago, John1122 said:

The GFS is hot still, but not as hot as it was 36 hours ago, which was bonkers hot, the Canadian is cooler than the GFS and the Euro is cooler than the Canadian at D8-10. The ensembles are seemingly hotter than the ops. One thing that does appear to happen, it will get dry here during that time frame. I hate it when we get really hot and dry as leaves begin to fall due to wildfire danger literally in my back yard.

Right with you brother. Very depressing. I'm rooting for tropical activity or something to throw a monkey wrench into forecasted pattern. 

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Heat next week looks like moderate humidity and low temps in the 60s; so, it won't be horrible. Even if we get well into the 90s it won't feel anything like August. Lower sun angle too.

Though computer models have amped up next week the last 36 hours or so, just overnight some dents in the ridge show by Day 10. With zig zag models we are due for a downtrend. Just one more reason it won't be too bad next week.

However AN temps will probably be dominant the rest of the month. Enjoy mornings like the last couple when we get them. Eventually fall wx will be consistent, right when football gets back into the heart of conference play.

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2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Heat next week looks like moderate humidity and low temps in the 60s; so, it won't be horrible. Even if we get well into the 90s it won't feel anything like August. Lower sun angle too.

Though computer models have amped up next week the last 36 hours or so, just overnight some dents in the ridge show by Day 10. With zig zag models we are due for a downtrend. Just one more reason it won't be too bad next week.

However AN temps will probably be dominant the rest of the month. Enjoy mornings like the last couple when we get them. Eventually fall wx will be consistent, right when football gets back into the heart of conference play.

Yeah the models have really muted the record heat that was being modeled. To me just looks like typical September weather really. Some cool days, some warm days...

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Yeah @Save the itchy algae! it'll be windy through the Mountains this weekend. I think 15-30 mph in the Valley; mostly 15-20 mph with G30 mph. Should (I hope) be too early to screw up mountain leaves. 

Then one can check rainfall forecasts at WPC or NHC. I hate what's happening in Cuba; Ian acts like no land is there. I'm also quite concerned for Florida. 

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14 hours ago, Save the itchy algae! said:

Oops

Well, looks like we're going to be getting what I've been rooting for. I'm with John in it staving off fire danger even if just has minimal effects on the future resultant pattern. 

     An expansive area of wet soil will have at least somewhat of an impact. 

    

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8 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Yeah @Save the itchy algae! it'll be windy through the Mountains this weekend. I think 15-30 mph in the Valley; mostly 15-20 mph with G30 mph. Should (I hope) be too early to screw up mountain leaves. 

Then one can check rainfall forecasts at WPC or NHC. I hate what's happening in Cuba; Ian acts like no land is there. I'm also quite concerned for Florida. 

Just got back from prepping the other home for the storm, the Floridians don’t care in my area…was the only one sandbagging.  With the track shifting south east they may take it more seriously now.

The locals are saying Ian is a Hurricane Charley clone.

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