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Central PA Summer 2022


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13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Some Am models continue the late trend yesterday in focusing the heaviest ran in the drought of N Central PA.  Potential for some 2-4" totals in cells.   CTP trying to catch on but not there yet. 

They are way way behind  here then, as they say in my forecast top rain .25 edit they just raised the totals: showers likely, mainly between 11pm and 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 66. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible

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26 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

They are way way behind  here then, as they say in my forecast top rain .25 edit they just raised the totals: showers likely, mainly between 11pm and 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 66. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible

They seemed to have a bias against this event...not much coordination with Sterling.  They even continue to down talk the cell potential while neighbors talk of increasing instability.   Latest HRRR has clouds increasing and thickening this AM with rain commencing between 2 and 4 in the LSV. 

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54 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

They seemed to have a bias against this event...not much coordination with Sterling.  They even continue to down talk the cell potential while neighbors talk of increasing instability.   Latest HRRR has clouds increasing and thickening this AM with rain commencing between 2 and 4 in the LSV. 

Good precip is still back near the OH/WV border. I think most of the afternoon will be dry for most of the LSV.
I think the rain holds off until late afternoon or early evening for our Harrisburg & Lancaster crew.

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Good precip is still back near the OH/WV border. I think most of the afternoon will be dry for most of the LSV.
I think the rain holds off until late afternoon or early evening for our Harrisburg & Lancaster crew.

Yea, Eastern LSV was 4pish on the HRRR.   1-2 PM Western LSV.

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Here’s the CTP take for my yard.

Today
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. 
Tonight
Showers likely, mainly after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 68. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
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17 minutes ago, canderson said:

You’re warmer than me - I’m at 77. 

Strong SW flow at 850 and a bit below is pumping Southern Air in.  Plus a  S/W forming to my SW. 83 now.  Even warmer than CXY right now.   It is quickly clouding up though so no records here today.   One observer has 87 a bit north of me though I wonder if that is correct. 

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2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Also as far as average time between events I believe this area is over due for an Isabelle type tropical system that brings with it a scary night of winds. September and October will be interesting


. Pro

I was just reviewing some of the tropical models as it is QUIET.  I remember I said that last year, albeit it a week or two earlier, and things livened up but it is now August and there is nothing to track.  

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8 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:


Tonight might be that over proformer that tops off the best 7 day precipitation total for you all summer to date


. Pro

Yea looks like a solid soaking rain. My grass is much greener today than it has been for a month and half thanks to the three straight days that had rain. 

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So we were talking about rain start times...even the early models, like the HRRR,  were too late with reality seeing rain entering the Lehigh Valley right now.  The runs that had it starting this evening were really late.   The latest HRRR has the rain ending 10-11PM in the LSV. 

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