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Upstate/Eastern New York- Jan 5-7 Lake Effect Snow Event


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5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

My question is all the verbiage states warning criteria snows in all 4 zones in the WSW…so why not raise it to a warning and smooth out details as it takes shape in later runs? 

most 0z hires should run in next 90 minutes.  waiting to see who caves and then issue around 10-11pm.

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12 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I’m hoping but Nws Buffalo saying nbd for lowville as all the action is in Watertown. Models all seem to put it more of a due west bad into lowville. So I have no clue 

They left the door open for Thursday as some guidance is more westerly according to the NWS but aren't ready to commit to that lol

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4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

They left the door open for Thursday as some guidance is more westerly according to the NWS but aren't ready to commit to that lol

I actually think jackpot is Buffalo out to just south of airport. I think winds go SW most of Thursday and so does Tom Niziol. Not expecting more than 6-8" here.

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Tom Niziol, worked at KBUF for 30+ years and IMO the best lake effect met in the business. I'm friends with him on FB.

Lake-effect Snow Discussion for WNY...
Evening update for the lake-effect snow tomorrow. I included the hourly NAM 3km model animation from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning.
 
This is a tricky event but there is a lot of evidence to suggest this band will start just south of Buffalo Wednesday afternoon after that cold front comes through. It will then intensify and lock itself in over Buffalo, and meander from the Southtowns up north into the Northtowns Wednesday night through Thursday. There some suggestion that Thursday for a time at least we will see a very narrow intense band of snow which will wreak havoc on travel in and around Buffalo. Later Thursday afternoon the band should swing north of Buffalo into Niagara county as a weak embedded short wave comes through and backs the wind. Finally, Thursday night the band will drive quickly south.
 
This will be a fairly significant event but not a major storm, producing anywhere from 8-18" of snow with a few whiteouts at times. I would not count out parts of the Thruway closing for a brief time late Wednesday night into Thursday late morning.
 
You have all been there before, so just hunker down and wait until this system gets through the area Friday.
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Point and click for KBUF which kind of justifies my above post.

Wednesday Night
Snow likely before 7pm, then a chance of snow showers between 7pm and 8pm, then snow after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 9pm. Low around 24. Windy, with a west wind 21 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.
Thursday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. Breezy, with a west wind 13 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
Thursday Night
Snow. Low around 20. West wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
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2 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

HRRR goes SOUTH!

hrrr.png

The HRRR is one of the worst models for LES, its last 48 hour run was at 18Z It went from the farthest north with the band to the farther south in 6 hours...It's really only useful for severe weather outbreaks. Toss that thing as far as the Icon.

snku_acc.us_ne.png

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The NAM has a more WSW flow for entire duration of event. A brutal forecast with that low passing to SE and the shortwave to the NW. One of the more difficult LES forecast in awhile. Can understand why KBUF is holding off so long. The event starts tomorrow afternoon, less than 18 hours away.

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The NAM has a more WSW flow for entire duration of event. A brutal forecast with that low passing to SE and the shortwave to the NW. One of the more difficult LES forecast in awhile. Can understand why KBUF is holding off so long. The event starts tomorrow afternoon, less than 18 hours away.

I thought Tom Niziol was using the NAM? In his estimation it kinda gets everyone from the Niagara/Erie Co border to Hamburg?

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

My question is all the verbiage states warning criteria snows in all 4 zones in the WSW…so why not raise it to a warning and smooth out details as it takes shape in later runs? 

Maybe they waiting to see if they wanna do LES Warnings or B… B… Blizzard Warnings???

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Pick your poison I guess?  Of course the RGEM had to flip a little more north...One half of Erie County is getting 4-8" and the other half 10-16".  NWS map looks fine!  Might have to spread the bullseye a few miles south but not much.  Pop the warnings for N Erie S Erie Genesee advisory for touching squares and let it rip!   010522.0Zruns.thumb.png.56e3069578ca7e6051875578d85e77c2.png

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19 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Pick your poison I guess?  Of course the RGEM had to flip a little more north...One half of Erie County is getting 4-8" and the other half 10-16".  NWS map looks fine!  Might have to spread the bullseye a few miles south but not much.  Pop the warnings for N Erie S Erie Genesee advisory for touching squares and let it rip!   010522.0Zruns.thumb.png.56e3069578ca7e6051875578d85e77c2.png

Yeah looks good 10-15" with 1-2 spots getting 20". I don't know why everyone is down on this event, its a pretty good one. Some years like two years ago we go the entire year without one good band. Look at this LES season... literally zero bands over my place and the city as all the events were trash for Erie.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2019-2020&event=A

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13 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Pick your poison I guess?  Of course the RGEM had to flip a little more north...One half of Erie County is getting 4-8" and the other half 10-16".  NWS map looks fine!  Might have to spread the bullseye a few miles south but not much.  Pop the warnings for N Erie S Erie Genesee advisory for touching squares and let it rip!   010522.0Zruns.thumb.png.56e3069578ca7e6051875578d85e77c2.png

Bottom 3 are very similar in location and amounts. That seems the logical outcome. HRRR is still drunk from the holidays…

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah looks good 10-15" with 1-2 spots getting 20". I don't know why everyone is down on this event, its a pretty good one. Some years like two years ago we go the entire year with one good band.

I’m not down on it! It’s a share the wealth type of event. I’d take 8-9” over nothing any day.

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9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I’m not down on it! It’s a share the wealth type of event. I’d take 8-9” over nothing any day.

don't forget the ...thundersnow... ??? I'm planning to just get up super early Thursday and head out maybe around 3-4am and then go drive around for a bit until I need to be at work.  I'll be holed up in Cheektowaga Harlem Walden area during the day Thursday, so should be in a good spot I'm thinking.    

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46 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I just watched WIVB…Mike Cejka is about 25 miles south of the NWS with his Placement of the band and snow accumulation. 

All 3 stations have the bullseye from West Seneca to Hamburg and Derby. Channel 2 & 7 model output puts the heaviest right over BuffaloWeather and I. Literally have no idea what’s gonna happen. Expecting 4-6” total here but hoping for 1’ + 

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3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Yep I agree with these two…mike was out on a raft in the pacific…

Idk what to think. It’s gotta be super tough to forecast right now. Models have shifted south but history tells us these things come north 5 miles so not sure. I think Mike’s map looks alright, maybe just shift everything north 5 miles. 

6E76DE45-A5D7-4B4A-A6FB-1AE7EF3F9605.webp

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6 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Idk what to think. It’s gotta be super tough to forecast right now. Models have shifted south but history tells us these things come north 5 miles so not sure. I think Mike’s map looks alright, maybe just shift everything north 5 miles. 

6E76DE45-A5D7-4B4A-A6FB-1AE7EF3F9605.webp

That’s my thought because he has warning snowfall in Chautauqua county. His heaviest is Boston hills. I made fun of him last year for this and out of the three Mets yesterday (Don, Todd and himself) he was the only one this south. Don even stated that he and Todd discussed this and after reading BW and his conversation with Tom Niziol I feel all three of them collaborated. 

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