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Tn Valley Severe Weather


jaxjagman
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42 minutes ago, Witness Protection Program said:

3 dead in Clarksville, 3 dead in Madison, last report I could find was they were still searching.  Heavy damage and people trapped in homes in Springfield, too.  

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/2023/12/09/tennessee-tornado-nashville-clarksville-hendersonville-springfield-damage-report/71866535007/

Thats what i heard so far

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11 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Well today just reinforces that tornadoes do follow the same paths or very close to the same paths as previous tornadoes. TN also continues its sad trend of tornado deaths. Today also shows that we are nowhere close to understanding why tornadoes happen. 

Yeah, I was wondering the same thing yesterday. There has to be a reason. As for an event recap, I'm going to check with Convective Chronicles to see if he plans to break down all the reasons yesterday's threat overperformed so dramatically. I imagine there will be plenty of education to glean in the aftermath.

On a side note, I didn't see anything too spectacular during my mini-chase yesterday, though I did see emergency responders racing up to the Cumberland Furnace area after I cut the feed. Had I decided to pivot east instead of northwest during the drive up to Charlotte, I may have been in position to see the tornado that impacted the Hwy 250/Pack Road area. While my subdivision faired well on the south side of White Bluff, the same can't be said for some friends up on the north side. 

0357 PM     Hail             1 SE Charlotte          36.18N 87.34W
12/09/2023  E1.25 inch       Dickson            TN   Public

Estimated hail size from social media picture. Time estimated on radar.

0403 PM     Tornado          4 N White Bluff         36.17N 87.22W
12/09/2023                   Dickson            TN   Public

Tornado with debris signature began near this area and tracked across Cheatham County into western Davidson County.

 

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10 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Well today just reinforces that tornadoes do follow the same paths or very close to the same paths as previous tornadoes. TN also continues its sad trend of tornado deaths. Today also shows that we are nowhere close to understanding why tornadoes happen. 

On a positive note, I bet that those who manufacture and install storm shelters in the area will see an uptick in business for the next few months! 

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58 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

On a positive note, I bet that those who manufacture and install storm shelters in the area will see an uptick in business for the next few months! 

Good point. And I think that’s part of a broader silver lining of what happened yesterday in that a new local generation of impressionable viewers can learn to take these threats more seriously even if they occur in December and start out as Slight Risks. I tell my kids with the right attitude, you either win or you learn and I believe we can win long term by what we learn (and apply) right now.

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1 hour ago, *Flash* said:

Good point. And I think that’s part of a broader silver lining of what happened yesterday in that a new local generation of impressionable viewers can learn to take these threats more seriously even if they occur in December and start out as Slight Risks. I tell my kids with the right attitude, you either win or you learn and I believe we can win long term by what we learn (and apply) right now.

I agree with your sentiment, but most people who have houses and enough room for a storm shelter should get one because we live in an area that has tornadoes pretty much all year long, highlighted by spring and secondary svr weather season October. Imo, people shouldn't wait until a big event happens and then go do it. It better to be safe than sorry.

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4 hours ago, *Flash* said:

Yeah, I was wondering the same thing yesterday. There has to be a reason. As for an event recap, I'm going to check with Convective Chronicles to see if he plans to break down all the reasons yesterday's threat overperformed so dramatically. I imagine there will be plenty of education to glean in the aftermath.

On a side note, I didn't see anything too spectacular during my mini-chase yesterday, though I did see emergency responders racing up to the Cumberland Furnace area after I cut the feed. Had I decided to pivot east instead of northwest during the drive up to Charlotte, I may have been in position to see the tornado that impacted the Hwy 250/Pack Road area. While my subdivision faired well on the south side of White Bluff, the same can't be said for some friends up on the north side. 

0357 PM     Hail             1 SE Charlotte          36.18N 87.34W
12/09/2023  E1.25 inch       Dickson            TN   Public

Estimated hail size from social media picture. Time estimated on radar.

0403 PM     Tornado          4 N White Bluff         36.17N 87.22W
12/09/2023                   Dickson            TN   Public

Tornado with debris signature began near this area and tracked across Cheatham County into western Davidson County.

 

You live by there?

 

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The Hendersonville to Gallatin tornado went less than 1.5 miles from my family home where my dad still resides.  I was busy sending texts to all my friends/family in group chats trying to keep them informed in real time.  The signature on radar was evident well west of Nashville.  For the time of year, I was surprised it held together as well as it did as it slid by just north of Nashville.  Prayers for all those affected and especially those grieving the loss of a loved one today.

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10 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

The Hendersonville to Gallatin tornado went less than 1.5 miles from my family home where my dad still resides.  I was busy sending texts to all my friends/family in group chats trying to keep them informed in real time.  The signature on radar was evident well west of Nashville.  For the time of year, I was surprised it held together as well as it did as it slid by just north of Nashville.  Prayers for all those affected and especially those grieving the loss of a loved one today.

Yeah, that one went about three miles south of us; we had hail and, strangely, an absence of any wind at all. 

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1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

You live by there?

 

Yes, sir. We live on the south side of White Bluff about a mile from the Hwy 70/White Bluff Road split. The tornado that hit within city limits occurred on the northern outskirts of town off Claylick Road (Hwy 250)/Pack Road. Caeden and I just did a drive-by...

 

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2 hours ago, *Flash* said:

Yes, sir. We live on the south side of White Bluff about a mile from the Hwy 70/White Bluff Road split. The tornado that hit within city limits occurred on the northern outskirts of town off Claylick Road (Hwy 250)/Pack Road. Caeden and I just did a drive-by...

 

Cool one day lets go chase something together,we are pretty close

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13 confirmed last i heard,maybe more when its said and done

You talking Tennessee only or overall for the day? Looks like the number is in the mid 20’s for the day. We are really lucky this didn’t line up perfectly. If the trough had of gone negative 12 hours earlier, a couple of these tornadoes could have been high end.


.
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1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:


You talking Tennessee only or overall for the day? Looks like the number is in the mid 20’s for the day. We are really lucky this didn’t line up perfectly. If the trough had of gone negative 12 hours earlier, a couple of these tornadoes could have been high end.


.

Only what i heard yesterday

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December Tornado Stats

 

 

Stewart County

  • First tornado in Stewart County since 12/10/2021

  • No reported deaths or injuries as of 930pm on 12/9

 

Montgomery County 

  • First December tornado on record in Montgomery County

  • First tornado in Montgomery County since 6/19/2021

  • Deadliest tornado in Montgomery County since April 27, 1970

  • 3 reported deaths are the first in a tornado in Montgomery County since November 10, 2002 (2 deaths)

 

Robertson County

  • First December tornado on record in Robertson County

  • First tornado in Robertson County since 5/4/2021

  • No reported deaths as of 930pm on 12/9

 

Dickson County

  • First tornado in Dickson County since 12/11/2021

  • No reported deaths or injuries as of 930pm on 12/9

  • There have been 4 tornadoes on record in Dickson County in December (3 of which happened on 12/11/21, 2 EF2s)

 

Cheatham County

  • First tornado in Cheatham County since 12/11/2021

  • No reported deaths or injuries as of 930pm on 12/9

 

Davidson County

  • First tornado in Davidson County since 12/11/2021

  • Deadliest tornado in Davidson County since March 14, 1933 (11 fatalities)

  • 3 reported deaths are the first in a tornado in Davidson County since March 3, 2020

  • March 3, 2020 tornado had 2 deaths in Davidson County (3 in Wilson County)

  • There have been 7 tornadoes on record in Davidson County in December (highest is an EF-2 on 12/11/2021

 

Sumner County

  • First tornado in Sumner County since 12/11/2021

  • Unknown deaths or injuries as of 930pm on 12/9

  • There have been 4 tornadoes on record in Sumner County in December (F2 highest in 1924, two EF-0s and one EF-1 on 12/11/2021).

    

December 9, 2023 Areawide tornado stats

  • Since the 1800s, there have been 37 tornadoes in the month of December (21 occurred in December 2021, 5 on 12/6 and 16 on 12/10-11)

  • From the 1800s through 2020, only 17 tornadoes were recorded across Middle Tennessee in the month of December (1 occurred in 1800s)

  • Strongest tornado in December in Middle Tennessee was an F4 tornado in Williamson County on 12/24/1988

    • Other notable EF 3 December tornadoes:

      • December 23, 2015 EF-3 (Wayne, Lawrence, Lewis, Maury)

      • December 10, 2021 EF-3 in Stewart County

  • Since the 1800s there have only been 8 prior tornado fatalities in the month of December, making December 9, 2023 the deadliest December tornado outbreak in Middle TN history

    • Prior December tornado deaths include:

      • 2 fatalities 12/23/2015 Perry/Hickman EF-2 tornado

      • 1 death from the EF4 12/24/1988 Williamson County EF-4 tornado

      • 5 deaths from the 12/28/1865 Giles County Tornado

  • https://www.weather.gov/ohx/20231209

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  • 1 month later...

In the next couple days the models show a big ridge starts to get going into the Sea of Japan into Northern Japan,with a trough trailing behind it.

This seemingly towards the end of the month of Feb would build a ridge into the NE and then we should start to see height rises  and a return flow from the SW.No clue where severe would set up even if it does but it does seem to be a time frame to watch closely.

ECMWF-Model-–-500mb-Height-Anomaly-for-East-Asia-Tropical-Tidbits.png

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GFS is showing a chance of severe Monday night into the Mid South,West Tenn,but this could also just be a shortwave its showing and might not be there next run seemingly,Tuesday could get interesting,GFS keeps showing alot of invergence into the warm sector,but this could be typical GFS bias at this range.Climo the best severe and tornado chance would be into Al/MS.

Models-GFS-—-Pivotal-Weather (1).png

059-png-935×665- (1).png

CIPS-Extended-Analog-Guidance (1).png

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I’m starting to think Wednesday for East of Nashville but it looks like energy doesn’t overlap as well as Tuesday does west of the valley.

However it’s looking like the next several weeks this thread might get active.


.

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11 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

I’m starting to think Wednesday for East of Nashville but it looks like energy doesn’t overlap as well as Tuesday does west of the valley.

However it’s looking like the next several weeks this thread might get active.


.

Porobably be a bit before we figure it out.The KING and Queen seem to be fighting

GFS-Model-–-850mb-Height-Wind-for-CONUS-Tropical-Tidbits.png

ECMWF-Model-–-850mb-Height-Wind-for-CONUS-Tropical-Tidbits.png

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