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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion


meatwad
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It's way too soon to talk details on this, but next weekend's event - as currently depicted on all the models - looks somewhat similar to the one earlier this month.  A northern-stream s/w dives below the trough and amplifies in the southern states.  Due to the early cut-off and bombogenesis, chances are higher than normal that this storm would ride a similar path up along the Appalachian trail.  However, the GFS attempts a solution where another piece of energy in the NS acts as a kicker/barrier.  The Canadian slows down the event by phasing a more substantial piece of southern-stream energy with the northern, and instead of being a kicker, that lagged or second piece of energy acts as a fuse.

Unsurprisingly, the CMC version of events gets pulled further west and would potentially be a bigger hit to our area.  It could also be too much of a good thing like the last storm, and with no confluence up top, it would get pulled too far west resulting in another messy solution.  The GFS timing might miss our area altogether and ride the coast.

The Euro also shows a storm that's probably closer to the GFS in timing/evolution but is more an inland runner.  3/3 at this lead-time is unusual, so there's little doubt it's something to put in the back of your mind for now.  I do notice that none of them show a traditional block or high-pressure placement as seems to be the trend lately.  For now it's not a big deal, but an important detail later.

The questions will come down to timing, wave spacing, confluence, and how much (if any) southern-stream involvement.

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seems like Sunday maybe a 1-3 type event then we have the possible juiced up clipper Tuesday and then that mega storm next weekend. May not capitalize on everything bit we should atleast be tracking.

off topic

I was at work last night bored so I scrolled through our threads from last winter and wow that December period was insane. 

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7 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Yes a nice little clipper. One of my favorite types of systems. 1-2 inches of steady light snow all afternoon. No mixing issues. :snowwindow:

who knows maybe we get 3? 

Looks like two light events this week. 

One thing we haven't had in awhile is an arctic front with white out snow. I've never been more terrified driving than having to drive in one. Amazing though. 

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19 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

who knows maybe we get 3? 

Looks like two light events this week. 

One thing we haven't had in awhile is an arctic front with white out snow. I've never been more terrified driving than having to drive in one. Amazing though. 

Tuesday's system looks to be diving in stronger on the Canadian. Maybe some heavier bursts then.

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...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4
inches.

* WHERE...Portions of east central Ohio. Portions of southwest and
western Pennsylvania. Portions of northern and the northern
panhandle of West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

&&


.

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While we get disappointed with most of the big storms that tend to either miss us, give us p-type issues or dry slot us, these little clippers tend to overperform for us so this could be a nice little system that adds a few inches with no huge letdown like the big storms tend to give us.

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6 inches or this is a bust lol.


HRRR is looking pretty good with this, as in 4 or 5 inches. In general looks like a solid 2-4 inch event with the possibility of over performing.

One word of caution is that the NAM is further north and it did really well with the last storm.

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11 hours ago, north pgh said:

Yes a nice little clipper. One of my favorite types of systems. 1-2 inches of steady light snow all afternoon. No mixing issues. :snowwindow:

I agree, these little nickel and dimes can get old later in the season but I say bring em on in full force in January and early Feb. I'll gladly take a 1-2 snow globe day.

There is a narrow band of slightly higher amounts, maybe we get lucky.

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