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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion


meatwad
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2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

THIS. I was going to post, good news is there a several s/w so plenty of chances for something to pop, bad news, there are several s/w so models will have a hard time figuring out which ones to focus on and they will in some cases interfere with each other. I'd fully expect in this setup something might just blow up in the short / medium term. If a storm is going to miss us, we probably want it to stay weak and progressive and get the hell out of the way so as to not interfere with the next one with spacing issues etc.

Agreed.  I think this current week is too noisy for any one storm to really explode.  Everything else is running interference and taking away some of the potential energy.  Not long after my other post, the Euro - at 12Z - went towards the GFS solution.  There's definitely still time to resolve it, either way, but I have low confidence in something for this week.  The clipper overnight Monday into Tuesday is perhaps our best next chance for snow.  Pretty standard 2-4" deal.

There's a number of systems getting blown up in the long-term, but none of that is reliable right now.  Unless a window clears again where there's a single piece or two of energy that can time together and phase.  The GFS keeps hinting at it in the long-term, again at 18Z around hr. 240, but it's hard to take those threats seriously.

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24 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I’m not even sure I understand how that would happen.

Looks like it's a near perfect phase of 2 potent northern and southern stream short waves by 240, then more energy dumps into the trough and retrogrades the low, similar to this last storm in that regard.

By the end trough is very negative and at least 3 contour closed low at 500. Absolute beast.

 gfs_z500_vort_us_fh228-264.thumb.gif.aadd0e678fb8683ccbaacccd48e90a18.gif

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1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Need the front today to hang up a little further NW if we want to see a little snow pack refreshing tonight. Looks like moisture wants to slide just to the SE of Pittsburgh area.

Razor sharp. Some of us in the southern areas will definitely see something. Maybe a dusting? 

Areas to the north, looking like zip

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34 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said:

Up to 44.1 here with sun.

That’s what I mean. Whenever we get a pattern that looks good for snow retention, it gets put in jeopardy by a day that was supposed to be overcast and struggle to reach 40 instead torching well into the mid-40s with lots of sun.

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