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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion


meatwad
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Looks like the 24 hour total at PIT was 9.1” (3.5 yesterday and 5.6 today). I’d say this thing panned out. 

All that panic for nothing lol. I will say that I was definitely on the low end of the accumulations. 9.1 at kpit. 6.3 grand total at my house in mt Lebanon. The lowest I thought possible was 6. So I guess we nailed it


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47 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Be careful…the roads are a mess out there tonight

still that's insane.

 

also for anybody who likes cold the gfs at 18z showed one day (wednesday) where we get above 30 degrees. The whole run had arctic air just constantly hitting us.

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41 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

still that's insane.

 

also for anybody who likes cold the gfs at 18z showed one day (wednesday) where we get above 30 degrees. The whole run had arctic air just constantly hitting us.

It’s more so that with the wind snow blew into the roads, turned to slush, and is now freezing.

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31 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Euro mean has us in the 4-6 range for next weekend. Who knows maybe it trends stronger and further east. Regardless tracking continues

You think we can start Saturday with a low near 0 and still find a way to have sleet/zr/rain by the end of the day?

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1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

You think we can start Saturday with a low near 0 and still find a way to have sleet/zr/rain by the end of the day?

Is showing sleet and freezing rain?  Also, yes.  Many areas in eastern PA were single digits Sunday morning and turned to sleet and rain by evening.

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9 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Is showing sleet and freezing rain?  Also, yes.  Many areas in eastern PA were single digits Sunday morning and turned to sleet and rain by evening.

No, I can’t see how anything other than snow would fall in that setup.

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11 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Euro ensembles had some nice Piedmont runners

GFS has nothing like this, crazy the two are so different in like the 72-96hr range. I fully expect one to take a strong step towards the other. If the Euro is correct though it closes off pretty early, I'd wager in that instance it comes north. 

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While the Euro has better verification scores at 5+ days, the GFS nailed the last storm at about 140 hours and led the way.  What does that mean for the upcoming system?

We're approaching 100 hours, give or take, on this next one and the GFS still shows a strung-out solution.  The CMC has waffled a little, but a few runs in a row now consistently have shown a slider.  The last big solution there was 0Z Sunday.

Looking at the lead-up, there are four main pieces of energy at 500H.  The GFS is half-heartedly trying to phase two of them in the east, but a piece behind in the NS kicks the other northern energy out and too much is held back in the southwest as a cutoff.

It's really a mess and probably could be considered too much of a good thing (as in too many s/w moving around the CONUS).

But if you go back and look at the last storm, it was basically the only piece of energy in the CONUS at the time, excepting the smaller piece in the NS that dove down and helped sharpen the trough behind our main system.  In that sense, the setup was much simpler.  The GFS keyed on that and blew it up.  The next system has to deal with much more movement across the country and a few more pieces of energy to calculate.  There's also more southern stream involvement.

For now I'm not sure the models can really handle what's happening at the upper levels.  It's a complex arrangement and even though the GFS nailed the last storm, it may not be handling this setup as well.  Unless the Euro gets some support by Thursday, however, it's going to be tough to buy anything for the weekend.  Assuming the Euro would stick to its current solution, of course.

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Euro seems to have trended less amplified from its 18z run last night. The GFS has moved from nothing at all to at least somewhat in the euro direction. Not loving the set up but if we can catch a few inches on the fringe of this to freshen up the pack with the cold staying for a while I'd be pretty happy. 

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14 hours ago, TimB84 said:

No, I can’t see how anything other than snow would fall in that setup.

True, just by the nature of the storm, but definitely could turn to sleet after those cold temps if the uppers get flooded with warmth.

I'm not super confident for the weekend storm, though.  Seems the arctic airmass would suppress it.  Hopefully, I am wrong.

Ron Smiley said maybe an inch Sunday though.

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26 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

GFS continues to like the idea of a clipper early next week. 12z run depicts it with solid advisory level snows.

In the cold regime coming up, we may have to depend on clippers, and that's fine with me as long as they come.  They can be fun.

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2 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

In the cold regime coming up, we may have to depend on clippers, and that's fine with me as long as they come.  They can be fun.

I have nothing against clippers. Refresh the snowpack with a couple inches every so often? Sign me up.

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31 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

In the cold regime coming up, we may have to depend on clippers, and that's fine with me as long as they come.  They can be fun.

Clippers can be super fun. 2-5 inches over the span of 8-12 hours. I'll take that. Especially with some snow already on the ground

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There will be threats and anytime you have arctic air you have the possibility of something bigger. Atleast we should be tracking for a bit. Thursday maybe a coating-inch and then the clipper. After that there are signs of possible bigger storms.

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2 hours ago, Burghblizz said:

Clippers don’t quite have the excitement of the chase or high ceiling  - but certainly can be nice when you start with a good snowpack 

We also have a tendency to over perform w them it seems. For all of the times we have been screwed on big storms there have been equal times we've overperformed on a simple clipper. 

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8 hours ago, jwilson said:

While the Euro has better verification scores at 5+ days, the GFS nailed the last storm at about 140 hours and led the way.  What does that mean for the upcoming system?

We're approaching 100 hours, give or take, on this next one and the GFS still shows a strung-out solution.  The CMC has waffled a little, but a few runs in a row now consistently have shown a slider.  The last big solution there was 0Z Sunday.

Looking at the lead-up, there are four main pieces of energy at 500H.  The GFS is half-heartedly trying to phase two of them in the east, but a piece behind in the NS kicks the other northern energy out and too much is held back in the southwest as a cutoff.

It's really a mess and probably could be considered too much of a good thing (as in too many s/w moving around the CONUS).

But if you go back and look at the last storm, it was basically the only piece of energy in the CONUS at the time, excepting the smaller piece in the NS that dove down and helped sharpen the trough behind our main system.  In that sense, the setup was much simpler.  The GFS keyed on that and blew it up.  The next system has to deal with much more movement across the country and a few more pieces of energy to calculate.  There's also more southern stream involvement.

For now I'm not sure the models can really handle what's happening at the upper levels.  It's a complex arrangement and even though the GFS nailed the last storm, it may not be handling this setup as well.  Unless the Euro gets some support by Thursday, however, it's going to be tough to buy anything for the weekend.  Assuming the Euro would stick to its current solution, of course.

THIS. I was going to post, good news is there a several s/w so plenty of chances for something to pop, bad news, there are several s/w so models will have a hard time figuring out which ones to focus on and they will in some cases interfere with each other. I'd fully expect in this setup something might just blow up in the short / medium term. If a storm is going to miss us, we probably want it to stay weak and progressive and get the hell out of the way so as to not interfere with the next one with spacing issues etc.

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3 hours ago, Burghblizz said:

Clippers don’t quite have the excitement of the chase or high ceiling  - but certainly can be nice when you start with a good snowpack 

I agree, but I'd take a clipper especially if the alternative is just cold and dry. The flow looks conducive for clippers to dive down and depending how far they dig give us some snow, and if they time right with something in the southern stream maybe we see something phase and take an inland track again, or if they dig really far some sort of miller B action.

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