Winter 2021/22 December Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Can you produce a Weeklies 500 gif

500 mb anomalies/ 850 temps/ 2m temps:

 

 

 

 

Looks like we're trending towards a Qasigiannguit based -NAO, but we need a Kangerlussuaq based one. I just don't know if a Qasigiannguit based one will cut it. 

 

 

 

[Mr. Kevin]

We definitely would need a few shifts to get us where we want to be moving forward Carver. No doubt about that, even for a week or two of cold air. Get us a west based -nao, then we would be ok then I believe 

[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

We definitely would need a few shifts to get us where we want to be moving forward Carver. No doubt about that, even for a week or two of cold air. Get us a west based -nao, then we would be ok then I believe 

Oh, I think we are moving forward(famous last words I know).  Just think about where things were ten days ago.  The Euro Weeklies are money...if they are to be believed.  I think once the tropics settle down in the MJO region, we will see a true orbit through the MJO. The MJO is moving, but the OLR is a wreck right now from what I have heard.  The OLR is in turn creating issues with the MJO plot.  Once those invests are out of the MJO region, I suspect modeling will reflect a similar pattern evolution found on the 12z CFS and today's Euro Weeklies.   In other words, the pattern transition to cold might begin in very early January vs December.  Some will say that is pushing back the pattern, and it might be, but IMHO it more like correcting an error with the MJO plot.  Good to see so much blocking on LR models.  That is a BIG change for the positive.  As Jeff notes, just have to let a lot of this sort itself out.  

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

500 mb anomalies/ 850 temps/ 2m temps:

 

 

 

 

Looks like we're trending towards a Qasigiannguit based -NAO, but we need a Kangerlussuaq based one. I just don't know if a Qasigiannguit based one will cut it. 

 

 

 

I feel like I need to dust off my Tolkein concordance.  

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GEFS has a really impressive -NAO. Ensembles are now picking up those trends which is great.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

There may be hope Jeff! 

On 12/8/2021 at 2:36 PM, nrgjeff said:

 

Confession: I am really salty because we wanted to ski NC right before Christmas. Climatologically dumb move, but it sounded fun while kids on break and before the Christmas crowds.

 

Overnight Euro was nice to TRI and western NC:

 

Not much ensemble support, but the Euro is at least saying there's a chance

 

[Carvers Gap]

Not much to add this AM.  Was good to see the Euro Weeklies and now the CFSv2 with a similar look.   CFS now has a reasonable progression of its MJO.  It is now the GEFS which is leading the way towards phase 8.  Right now I am going to break down the wx pattern into 10 day blocks:

Dec20-31st:  Certainly appears that we get a couple of cold shots with warmth in between those transient thoughts.  Real question is whether the cold holds after Christmas.  For now, I think it warms back up briefly.  

Jan1-10th:  Looks cold.  Could always be a mirage, but certainly seems like the pattern will evolve to a least a temporarily cold pattern.  Fits climatology.  Fits with teleconnections.  Fits with the MJO look.  Fits with HLB.  

Jan10-20:  HUGE question mark for me.  I can see where a cold pattern would lock-in or simply leave and never return.  If one looks at the analogs...84-85 is still in the there.  December '92 is in there.  Both of those had memorable events.    @John1122, any other big winters in that group of analogs. 

[Carvers Gap]

4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

There may be hope Jeff! 

Overnight Euro was nice to TRI and western NC:

 

Not much ensemble support, but the Euro is at least saying there's a chance

 

Pretty interesting to also see that feature on the 0z CMC.  6z GFS is too progressive as usual, but is close.  CMC actually has a great track, but a weak precip shield in the NW quadrant.  

[Carvers Gap]

Thought this was a cool animation embedded in a Tweet by Webber.  Found this in the MA forum.  Looks very familiar to current modeling.  The have another good post about the disconnect between the strat and troposphere which you can go see for yourselves. I hate just to grab all of it without sending folks to see that great thread.

 

[Save the itchy algae!]

Finally figured out my password situation.  Glad to be back!

[Mr. Kevin]

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Thought this was a cool animation embedded in a Tweet by Webber.  Found this in the MA forum.  Looks very familiar to current modeling.  The have another good post about the disconnect between the strat and troposphere which you can go see for yourselves. I hate just to grab all of it without sending folks to see that great thread.

 

Carver, allan huffman made a good tweet earlier about the eps shifting the nao. Imo, it would have to shift pretty far west to do us much good,because an east based wont cut it in the east, especially with the pna being negative. 

[Mr. Kevin]

3 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Carver, allan huffman made a good tweet earlier about the eps shifting the nao. Imo, it would have to shift pretty far west to do us much good,because an east based wont cut it in the east, especially with the pna being negative. 

Everyone should check out griteaters post on Twitter. Very good read for sure. Its 15 different parts I believe 

[Carvers Gap]

4 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Carver, allan huffman made a good tweet earlier about the eps shifting the nao. Imo, it would have to shift pretty far west to do us much good,because an east based wont cut it in the east, especially with the pna being negative. 

Ensembles look decent after just a quick glance.  The 12z EPS is a bit of a shift west very late in the run, and centered over the Davis Straits which is textbook.  

[Carvers Gap]

Surprised there hasn't been more talk about overnight model runs.  Ensembles look good as do the operationals for the most part.  6z GFS even has Christmas Eve mood flakes for the higher elevations.  As Mr Kevin noted yesterday, EPS has shown some good trends regarding the EPS and the -NAO.  Looks like that continued overnight.  Euro control is very cold and really locks in cold after the 21st.  The GEFS and GEPS have a progression that makes a lot of sense, and would put into place a very cold pattern by the New Year.  Still some things to sort out, but overall nice set of model runs overnight.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Hypothetical here, but let's say the pattern does evolve the way Griteater, Webb, and we have been seeing, what sort of storm track is most likely? Slider? Overrunning? Miller A? Miller B? Clippers? 

[Carvers Gap]

56 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Hypothetical here, but let's say the pattern does evolve the way Griteater, Webb, and we have been seeing, what sort of storm track is most likely? Slider? Overrunning? Miller A? Miller B? Clippers? 

Last winter would be my example.  D'Aleo does a great job discussing those tracks as does Cosgrove.  Typical Nina tracks would cut west of the Apps and have sliders as primary tracks w/ secondary track along the coast which cuts through the Piedmont.  Normally, tracks are rotten for the Carolinas unless on likes ice...  Now, western Carolina can score BIG during Ninas and our TN communities in the Foothills can get upslope snow.  But primaries are to the Ohio Valley, sliders along the mid-South, and secondary would be inland runners.  Really, there is a good reason why many of our most memorable seasons are weak La Ninas.  But....not sure what we are seeing on modeling is that traditional golden egg set-up....yet.

[Carvers Gap]

The other thing that is beginning to be a fairly significant feature on LR modeling is a well-placed -NAO.   Now wouldn't be something to see a -NAO get us through phase 7, and then the MJO rotate in 8, 1, and 2.  I do think dual blocking is now likely.  So, the delivery mechanism is there to send very cold air into the Lower 48.  But that SER is going to fight for every inch.  Remember last winter when the cold made it to the Plateau and stop - THAT kind of fight.  Now, I would guess the cold gets at least to the Apps this time, but with the sever cold holding to my west.  But there are still a ton of uncertainties out there right now.  Those uncertainties are whether the MJO can get into phase 8, location of the NAO block(trend is west), location of the Alaskan block, and whether the jet kinks just enough to allow cold to tuck under a big EPO ridge.  I think the -QBO and cold fall argue for winter to push eastward.  So, just could be a winter with some really wild swings coming up.

[PowellVolz]

Hypothetical here, but let's say the pattern does evolve the way Griteater, Webb, and we have been seeing, what sort of storm track is most likely? Slider? Overrunning? Miller A? Miller B? Clippers? 

Been busy lately. What’s Webb saying?


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

Been busy lately. What’s Webb saying?


.

I was referencing Carver's post above from one of Webb's tweet threads. Webb was trying to construct and analogue for where he thinks the pattern is heading in early - mid January . 

[Carvers Gap]

So the 12z GFS is how it is done...with one tiny problem.   The air that gets sent southward from the Arctic is somehow warm!   LOL.  Normally, when one sees dual blocking send cold off the pole it is bitterly cold and well BN.  This is like sending air out of the sub-tropic southward(some hyperbole intended).  VERY UNLIKELY that occurs, but the look at 500 we take at this range in spades.

[Carvers Gap]

edit:  Actually not so much a dual block as a perfectly positions EPO ridge which is very similar to 17-18.

[Mr. Kevin]

Allan Huffman mentioned patience is required lol. 7-1 would perhaps get things shaken up somewhat. Still not cold for sure as of yet. Also, the niña is not even close to -1.1. I have been following the sst anomalies on tropicaltidbits for region 3.4 and it has averaged -.85 for many weeks, so not sure how the cpc calculates that number lol. To my untrained eye it looks like it has been east based for many weeks. Of course I'm no meteorologist lol. 

[Carvers Gap]

20 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Allan Huffman mentioned patience is required lol. 7-1 would perhaps get things shaken up somewhat. Still not cold for sure as of yet. Also, the niña is not even close to -1.1. I have been following the sst anomalies on tropicaltidbits for region 3.4 and it has averaged -.85 for many weeks, so not sure how the cpc calculates that number lol. To my untrained eye it looks like it has been east based for many weeks. Of course I'm no meteorologist lol. 

Good info.  Yeah looks east based to me which is why the SER will likely fight all winter.  That little ridge in TX is also a product of that on ensembles I think.  
 

Yes, the MJO is likely going to crawl.  Looks like models have finally corrected for the tropical systems.  We should now get a consistent progression with some loops(note crawling) embedded in that progression.  The one good thing is if this can get into phases 8-1-2, it could be there a while and during the middle of winter at that. 

[Mr. Kevin]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Good info.  Yeah looks east based to me which is why the SER will likely fight all winter.  That little ridge in TX is also a product of that on ensembles I think.  
 

Yes, the MJO is likely going to crawl.  Looks like models have finally corrected for the tropical systems.  We should now get a consistent progression with some loops(note crawling) embedded in that progression.  The one good thing is if this can get into phases 8-1-2, it could be there a while and during the middle of winter at that. 

I do wonder if the looping of the mjo is from the tropical cyclones in the Pacific. Until something changes, the mjo progression will be key whether we get any sustained cold down here because the pna is hurting us bad and alot of places actually. Alutian ridge isnt helping our cause also. If we get a true west based -nao in the future and dont get cold, we know we are fooked lol

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I know we've already mentioned it, but dang, what a Typhoon:

 

MJO is going to be wonky until that sucker finishes its life cycle. I'm not much of a tropical Wx enthusiast especially this time of year, but Lord have mercy:

 

That do be a pinhole eye if I ever saw one. 920 mb. 

 

We have 5 days until the recurve and weakening, according to the GEFS and EPS. 

[Carvers Gap]

40 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I do wonder if the looping of the mjo is from the tropical cyclones in the Pacific. Until something changes, the mjo progression will be key whether we get any sustained cold down here because the pna is hurting us bad and alot of places actually. Alutian ridge isnt helping our cause also. If we get a true west based -nao in the future and dont get cold, we know we are fooked lol

-NAO and -EPO on modeling are right there with the MJO.   I don't think the MJO is related to the -NAO.  The HLB in the medium and LR is textbook weak La Nina.  The MJO is not without its exceptions as well.  Kind of an interesting aside, I am pretty sure NC gets a lot of snow in phase 3...maybe one of the guys over there can comment on that.  It also seems like that cold can come even if the MJO is in warmer phases during La Ninas - that is the exception but no without precedent.  Again, have to be careful no to lean too much on one indicator, but it is also true that it has been a strong indicator during recent winters.   I would argue the -QBO has equal or stronger correlation to cold winters.  In fact, if this winter does not have a sharp cold shot, you might be able to count on one hand the number of times that happened with a falling -QBO - very few examples of that.  

Very much agree on the looping aspect.  And also maybe @PowellVolzsaid this on another forum, but warm winters don't mean no snow.  Sometimes warm winters can have a bit more snow due the storm track not being suppressed.  

[Carvers Gap]

40 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I know we've already mentioned it, but dang, what a Typhoon:

 

MJO is going to be wonky until that sucker finishes its life cycle. I'm not much of a tropical Wx enthusiast especially this time of year, but Lord have mercy:

 

That do be a pinhole eye if I ever saw one. 920 mb. 

 

We have 5 days until the recurve and weakening, according to the GEFS and EPS. 

Amazing.  And then models should settle in a bit....they were all over the place today.   

[PowellVolz]

-NAO and -EPO on modeling are right there with the MJO.   I don't think the MJO is related to the -NAO.  The HLB in the medium and LR is textbook weak La Nina.  The MJO is not without its exceptions as well.  Kind of an interesting aside, I am pretty sure NC gets a lot of snow in phase 3...maybe one of the guys over there can comment on that.  It also seems like that cold can come even if the MJO is in warmer phases during La Ninas - that is the exception but no without precedent.  Again, have to be careful no to lean too much on one indicator, but it is also true that it has been a strong indicator during recent winters.   I would argue the -QBO has equal or stronger correlation to cold winters.  In fact, if this winter does not have a sharp cold shot, you might be able to count on one hand the number of times that happened with a falling -QBO - very few examples of that.  
Very much agree on the looping aspect.  And also maybe [mention=14393]PowellVolz[/mention]said this on another forum, but warm winters don't mean no snow.  Sometimes warm winters can have a bit more snow due the storm track not being suppressed.  

Are you on Volquest?


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[Carvers Gap]

Models looks really good at 12z.  GEPS ensemble looks perfect.  -NAO is showing up.  Models are sensing that feature now.  Always seems like it takes a few days to reflect effects at the mid latitudes once the NAO shows up on modeling.

[Met1985]

14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Models looks really good at 12z.  GEPS ensemble looks perfect.  -NAO is showing up.  Models are sensing that feature now.  Always seems like it takes a few days to reflect effects at the mid latitudes once the NAO shows up on modeling.

The models seem to always have trouble with blocking...