Winter 2021/22 December Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Thing is....IF the -NAO gets established, it is very stubborn in moving.  Last winter, modeling erroneously tried breaking down that feature.  So key features on maps today:

1.  Double block:  Some form of AK/Aleutians block couple with a block near Greenland.  Aleutian highs are not uncommon during La Ninas.  They are normally deal breakers, but for some reason they also show up in cold analogs even without Pac help.

2. PERSISTENT southeast ridge.  

3.  Periodic extreme bouts of cold and warmth.

All of that fits very nicely into La Nina climatology.  If it is real, we should have some chances.  

[Daniel Boone]

33 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Thing is....IF the -NAO gets established, it is very stubborn in moving.  Last winter, modeling erroneously tried breaking down that feature.  So key features on maps today:

1.  Double block:  Some form of AK/Aleutians block couple with a block near Greenland.  Aleutian highs are not uncommon during La Ninas.  They are normally deal breakers, but for some reason they also show up in cold analogs even without Pac help.

2. PERSISTENT southeast ridge.  

3.  Periodic extreme bouts of cold and warmth.

All of that fits very nicely into La Nina climatology.  If it is real, we should have some chances.  

Yeah, hopefully we get strong blocking. That's definitely the gamechanger, dealmaker in La Ninas. 

     Mod/strong la nina of 2010-11 attests to that big time. Pretty much all lr outlooks were very mild for our area for obvious reasons.

[Mr. Kevin]

55 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 18z GEFS ensembles have a whopper of a -NAO.  So, now we are beginning to see ensembles "see" the possibility for colder solutions in the LR.  

I feel a west based -nao is better than east based so I believe that's what we want

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I feel a west based -nao is better than east based so I believe that's what we want

Yeah,true Kevin. Hopefully we get that along with a -AO. 

    If we get hlb akin to last Winter, we should do fine. More cold in Canada to work with this year.  

[Carvers Gap]

That is mega block on the 0z.  I will reference John's post above.  I think models are sensing a relatively substantial change after the 20th.  Probably tough to know exactly where the chips fall at this range.  His posts perfectly states what is potentially going on with modeling.  The 0z GFS run is a textbook block.  I am not worried about the features at our latitude at this stage in the game.  Get that kind of block into place...that is what we are looking for.  That would likely deliver very cold air into much of the Lower 48.  It is backing off the 21st as a start date.  Maybe it is a bit too fast.  Maybe it is up to the old trick of pushing cold air back.  Key is the block.  Get that and let everything else fall into place.  

[Carvers Gap]

57 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I feel a west based -nao is better than east based so I believe that's what we want

For sure.  An east based -NAO will often retrograde to the west, especially with the warming which just occurred at high latitude.  Keep the fires burning.  See you all in the morning.

[Carvers Gap]

Not a ton to add this morning.  The 0z Euro is by the far the most aggressive model in moving to a look which would deliver cold in the Lower 48 with original from the Arctic.  As John noted, models are bouncing around.  I originally just took that to be them dialing in a cold shot.  I tend to agree that we are probably seeing a pattern change of some sort and of a duration TBD.  The CFSv2 is what I hope we transition to, but is by no means a certainty.  The MJO certainly appears to be poised to take a trip through the cold phases.  Will it happen?  Time will tell.  If this is true, modeling is going to switch to a pretty cold look.  If it is not, it will stay warm.   It is worth noting that ensembles now "see" the cold where before they had a suspiciously stagnant patter.  Obviously, they smooth things out....but still.   If the MJO is correct, I am suspicious of any model which reverts to the big ridge in the East ad nauseam.   I would suggest the pattern will be bouts of severe cold followed by extreme warmth until the pattern switches the cold to out West after mid-winter.  I could easily be wrong.  Let's put it this way, if I saw a model which was cold in the LR but the MJO was rotating into warm phases, I would be suspicious.  The opposite is also true.  Plenty can still go wrong, but to me it looks like LR modeling does not reflect the outcome that their own MJOs are depicting.  To close and beat a dead horse simultaneously, if the MJO is right...we get cold for longer than a week.  If the MJO is wrong, the West gets very cold for many weeks.  

[Mr. Kevin]

15 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Not a ton to add this morning.  The 0z Euro is by the far the most aggressive model in moving to a look which would deliver cold in the Lower 48 with original from the Arctic.  As John noted, models are bouncing around.  I originally just took that to be them dialing in a cold shot.  I tend to agree that we are probably seeing a pattern change of some sort and of a duration TBD.  The CFSv2 is what I hope we transition to, but is by no means a certainty.  The MJO certainly appears to be poised to take a trip through the cold phases.  Will it happen?  Time will tell.  If this is true, modeling is going to switch to a pretty cold look.  If it is not, it will stay warm.   It is worth noting that ensembles now "see" the cold where before they had a suspiciously stagnant patter.  Obviously, they smooth things out....but still.   If the MJO is correct, I am suspicious of any model which reverts to the big ridge in the East ad nauseam.   I would suggest the pattern will be bouts of severe cold followed by extreme warmth until the pattern switches the cold to out West after mid-winter.  I could easily be wrong.  Let's put it this way, if I saw a model which was cold in the LR but the MJO was rotating into warm phases, I would be suspicious.  The opposite is also true.  Plenty can still go wrong, but to me it looks like LR modeling does not reflect the outcome that their own MJOs are depicting.  To close and beat a dead horse simultaneously, if the MJO is right...we get cold for longer than a week.  If the MJO is wrong, the West gets very cold for many weeks.  

You may want to read griteaters post and webberweather on Twitter. Our only chance looks to come from the mjo. I feel and icestorm brewing with a -pna,but just my little bit of knowledge I have lol. Do we want a slow track through the phases of mjo for our best chance?

[AMZ8990]

37 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

You may want to read griteaters post and webberweather on Twitter. Our only chance looks to come from the mjo. I feel and icestorm brewing with a -pna,but just my little bit of knowledge I have lol. Do we want a slow track through the phases of mjo for our best chance?

If we want multiple opportunities at winter weather then yes a slower track would be best

[Carvers Gap]

5 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

You may want to read griteaters post and webberweather on Twitter. Our only chance looks to come from the mjo. I feel and icestorm brewing with a -pna,but just my little bit of knowledge I have lol. Do we want a slow track through the phases of mjo for our best chance?

I think I have laid out my thoughts on this pretty clearly with my earlier post this morning.  I don’t have anything to add at this point.

Not that we have a choice in the matter, I do think the MJO is going to crawl this winter.  If we indeed make it to phase 8, modeling will at some point move to that colder look.  It is also important to remember that the Carolinas generally get much different results from La Niñas so that impacts perspectives.   Have a good Sunday!

[Mr. Kevin]

54 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think I have laid out my thoughts on this pretty clearly with my earlier post. This morning.  I don’t have anything to add at this point.

Not that we have a choice in the matter, I do think the MJO is going to crawl this winter.  If we indeed make it to phase 8, modeling will at some point move to that colder look.  It is also important to remember that the Carolinas generally get much different results from La Niñas so that impacts perspectives.   Have a good Sunday!

I'm just trying to be optimistic since its winter and perhaps we will have a few opportunities at some point even though it is laniña and all niñas aren't the same

[Daniel Boone]

My 2 cents. Again, last Winter was -PDO and La nina. How often was MJO in cold phases ?

    HLB was prevalent. I recorded 29.3 " snow here. Canada wasn't near as cold as it looks to be this Winter. So, regardless of who or what says no snow with a -PDO LA nina Combo without favourable MJO. Formidable HLB ftw !

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I'm just trying to be optimistic since its winter and perhaps we will have a few opportunities at some point even though it is laniña and all niñas aren't the same

    Grit is east of Mountains. They had a basically snowless winter last year. Granted, this year may be a dud this side of apps too but, may also be similar to last, if so Grit etal will look good I guess for east of Apps.

[Mr. Kevin]

27 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

My 2 cents. Again, last Winter was -PDO and La nina. How often was MJO in cold phases ?

    HLB was prevalent. I recorded 29.3 " snow here. Canada wasn't near as cold as it looks to be this Winter. So, regardless of who or what says no snow with a -PDO LA nina Combo without favourable MJO. Formidable HLB ftw !

Grit believes the mjo orbits across 7-2, which would imo give us a glimmer of hope moving forward. If we could develop a SSW event, it could allow real cold air to come down but like always they are real tricky

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEFS, GEPS, Euro, and CFSv2 have great looks.  The 12z GFS and EPS not as much.  Now which of those models missed the potential trough amplification around the 21st and was the last to see it?  Honestly, I would take the 12z Euro and run with it if that look at higher latitudes verifies.  Sure, we would have some bouts of warm wx, but that is a given during any southern winter for the most part.  But that potential block(if real) is going to push cold air east at times.  Super similar look to last winter.  There is A LOT going on right now in terms of variables being unknown or fluid...Again, the winter pattern has very likely not shown itself yet.  I stand by this...base warm pattern with cold intrusions.  If the CFS is right, I am wrong with that last sentence.  Remember all of the ensembles that were wall-to-wall warmth just a week ago.  Not so much now.  In general at this point with lots of variables undecided:

Blend model solutions and go straight down the middle.  Why?  The solution is usually(not always) found between two extremes.  That leaves us with a blended solutions which is base warm but leaves room for cold intrusions and winter weather. I a definitely glad to see modeling take a step back from the wall-to-wall warm solutions from 7-10 days ago.  Welcome to winter - southern style.  

[jaxjagman]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GEFS, GEPS, Euro, and CFSv2 have great looks.  The 12z GFS and EPS not as much.  Now which of those models missed the potential trough amplification around the 21st and was the last to see it?  Honestly, I would take the 12z Euro and run with it if that look at higher latitudes verifies.  Sure, we would have some bouts of warm wx, but that is a given during any southern winter for the most part.  But that potential block(if real) is going to push cold air east at times.  Super similar look to last winter.  There is A LOT going on right now in terms of variables being unknown or fluid...Again, the winter pattern has very likely not shown itself yet.  I stand by this...base warm pattern with cold intrusions.  If the CFS is right, I am wrong with that last sentence.  Remember all of the ensembles that were wall-to-wall warmth just a week ago.  Not so much now.  In general at this point with lots of variables undecided:

Blend model solutions and go straight down the middle.  Why?  The solutions is usually(not always) found between two extremes.  That leaves us with a blended solutions which is base warm but leaves room for cold intrusions and winter weather. I a definitely glad to see modeling take a step back from the wall-to-wall warm solutions from 7-10 days ago.  Welcome to winter - southern style.  

Yeah you need that Rex block to get into the GOA you'd then have a favorable AO/PNA,but not seeing it right now even with a -NAO being shown

[nrgjeff]

Just wait and see how it shakes out. I agree models are trying to figure out a cold shot. MJO continues to look favorable. TC is forecast over there, but other convection should continue - vs TC saps all energy.

Yea Grit is in a whole other weather universe east of the Apps. He can have his ice storm. Ice requires such a specific set of circumstances here that there's no reason to forecast it outside of 3 days. Over there, different story with CAD pattern recognition. 

As for blocking yes a west based -NAO is required, esp with this stubborn -PNA. Yeah a Rex in the GOA would change things. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

Yeah you need that Rex block to get into the GOA you'd then have a favorable AO/PNA,but not seeing it right now even with a -NAO being shown

For sure.  The current NAO depiction is slightly east of where we need it.  However, if we get that block into Alaska proper(not the GOA which is prime real estate) which is being showing in modeling...that likely dumps cold into the West which spreads eastward as it moderates.  Ideally, yes, we want the motherland to dump into the East, but that just doesn't seem to be case.  Even with phase 8 of the MJO, cold dumps into the Plains and spread eastward.  I doubt we see a perfect block as those are rare, but blocking itself will likely send plentiful cold into the Lower 48.  I will take the Euro operational and run with it.  It isn't perfect, but it would provide some chances.  The SER is going to be with us this winter.  When is it not?  LOL.  That is not a bad thing if we can get cold into the mix.  No SER and we lack the ridging needed to get systems to turn north.  As Boone noted, Canada is cold this year so at least the source region for cold shots is good.  

Saw Jeff's post.  Yeah, just going to have to let things work themselves out for now.  

[jaxjagman]

10 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Just wait and see how it shakes out. I agree models are trying to figure out a cold shot. MJO continues to look favorable. TC is forecast over there, but other convection should continue - vs TC saps all energy.

Yea Grit is in a whole other weather universe east of the Apps. He can have his ice storm. Ice requires such a specific set of circumstances here that there's no reason to forecast it outside of 3 days. Over there, different story with CAD pattern recognition. 

As for blocking yes a west based -NAO is required, esp with this stubborn -PNA. Yeah a Rex in the GOA would change things. 

This is why we have have our forum thanks to Mr.Bob and yourself

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

This is why we have have our forum thanks to Mr.Bob and yourself

Ditto.

[Mr. Kevin]

I'm kinda suprised the models have adjusted to a colder regime just based on mjo progression unless it's still early. Sorry. Meant to say suprised they haven't adjusted lol. 

[John1122]

The CFS is crazy cold for January. We'd be rocking some 1970s winter if it was right. 

 

[jaxjagman]

31 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The CFS is crazy cold for January. We'd be rocking some 1970s winter if it was right. 

 

Man no joke MO ,gets stronger into Africa into the IO

 

Edit:Added MJO

[jaxjagman]

10 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Man no joke,gets stronger into Africa into the IO

Meant to put MJO but didnt,surely this could change,just keep it out the Maritime

[Mr. Kevin]

3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Meant to put MJO but didnt,surely this could change,just keep it out the Maritime

Are those charts at all accurate?

[jaxjagman]

7 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Are those charts at all accurate?

Would not trust anything that far  out but it looks sweet today 

[Mr. Kevin]

Just now, jaxjagman said:

Would not trust anything that far  out but it looks sweet today 

I'm referring to the mjo charts from the cfs lol

[jaxjagman]

3 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I'm referring to the mjo charts from the cfs lol

I use these charts

https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/

[jaxjagman]

22 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

I use these charts

https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/

In case you dont know how to use it go to maps,,pull up velocity potential,mjo, its probably wise to click on days and NOT go past 5 or 7 days,just saying

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Grit believes the mjo orbits across 7-2, which would imo give us a glimmer of hope moving forward. If we could develop a SSW event, it could allow real cold air to come down but like always they are real tricky

Misinterpreted ur earlier post irt Grit. Yeah, if that happens with MJO and HLB in place. Just Wow !