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MO/KS/AR/OK 2021-2022 Winter Discussion


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7 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

I'm sure everyone would check 'YES' here: 

image.png.7d1fd273e81b64e065aeab53a010c12a.png

Quick, lock it in! There would be a lot happy folks on here if that came to fruition! If anything it's nice to see models not completely falling apart as we get closer to game time. 

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5 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Yah,  and that's what's costing us here in NWA.  HRRR has a similar look as well.

Unfortunately this seems plausible considering the terrain issues.  There’s going to be a sharp cutoff somewhere in our area.  And then a dry slot on top of that.  

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heh that would be typical, I always suspect it because that's what always seem to happen here :thumbsdown:

26 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Unfortunately this seems plausible considering the terrain issues.  There’s going to be a sharp cutoff somewhere in our area.  And then a dry slot on top of that.  

 

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Just leaving this here...

1. Someone notices the possibility of a potent storm moving thru the area in 7-10 days.


2. 3-4 days are spent pointing out that off-hour runs are stupid and useless and throwing out any model that doesn't appear to confirm accumulating snow along the I-44 corridor.


3. 2-3 days are spent trying to determine what the heck the I-44 corridor actually means.


4. During the same period, every registered user askes the handful of posters who actually understand the models how much snow will fall at their nearest cross-street - and they ask 6-10 times after each model run.


5. System will be compared to every big snow event in the last 28 years.


6. As the system approaches, people who may (or may not) know what they are talking about post accumulation maps.


7. Each registered user bemoans the fact that the system is missing them by 50 miles.


8. System actually comes on shore, completely throwing all models into chaos. (This is also when terms like "nowcasting" begin to be used and "discos" from other NWS offices begin to show up regularly.)


9. Users again frantically try to determine how much will fall at their cross street.


10. System hits Texas and Oklahoma. Every user gives up hope of seeing any snow at all (24 hours earlier, the models indicated 6-8 inches at their cross-street.)


11. Users try not to use off-color language to indicate their frustration with not getting any snow at all.


12. 95% of users watch in horror as 5% of users begin to post photos of snow actually falling on one of the requested cross-streets. (Does any of the other old timers miss the pictures of Rosie's feet??)


13. System moves to the North/South/East/West and bombs out on someone else. Postings cease. Newbies are addicted......

 

-- This is from FOX 2's Chris Higgins out of STL... thought it was great stuff. I edited it just a bit to make a bit more applicable to our region.



14. New system shows up - See #1.

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3 hours ago, rockchalk83 said:

How are we feeling, everyone? This definitely looks like the most impactful winter storm our forum has had in sometime! Have you all chucked the global models and started looking at short-term stuff? 

I'm pretty confident on getting 4" IMBY, somewhat confident I may see 6", but anything over that I'm not confident in seeing. Too close to the 850 MB line and I've seen too many times where it ended up being warmer than forecast or there was some layer of the atmosphere that was just a little warmer than models thought which ended up giving more sleet. Despite the cold surface temps, the ratios won't be that great due to this warmer layer being nearby as well. So in general I think 4-6" is a good bet for me. 

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Springfield updated their WSW and Winter weather page after the 3 PM hour. Greater than 6" went up to 73% here. Greater than 8" at 47%, but the "Expected Snowfall" is 8". Hmm. 

21z RAP is nice for everyone. 

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1 hour ago, MoWeatherguy said:

I second that.   That's Dan Skoff totals there. 

Ironically for whatever reason he pulled back on the totals on his latest update. With the exception of Benton and Carrol County he has the NWA area getting 2-4" max now.

EDIT: Though I think I saw him mention something about the 850mb level getting too warm causing more sleet than snow. Theres also the chance of the dry slot being stronger than indicated.

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Things look to be progressing pretty much as expected. Probably lots of people who will wake up this morning and say "BUST!" but don't realize the main wave comes through beginning this afternoon. Looks like some potentially very heavy snow for a lot of us on here this evening into the overnight. 

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